Right here, I’m taking profits on high quality names, like VMW, BBY, JCG, FTK, and “plowing money” into low-end garbage stocks.
Odd, no?
Just know, my rational is weak. I’m betting on a fucking short squeeze, thanks in large part to the sweaty palms of the shorts.
Currently, I’m aggressively buying ACF.
In addition, I might buy more CFC, SPF.
Finally, if properly inebriated, I might buy RDN, WM, SOV and maybe even CORS.
NOTE: My time frame is less than 1 week.
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Angie will sell you some CFC- remember he has grandkids college expenses to worry about. Scary Tanned Fucker drinks tanning lotion.
FLY…like you better when sober, mean drunks are never invited to the best parties…no soup for you three days, come back tuesday.
Wait… what am I missing… didn’t the short squeeze just happen?
I know I’m treading on thin ice here, so I’ll go back to my third tier blog.
-DT
Zander stepping down may actually be good for MVIS. They are now under extreme pressure to come up with another supercool phone, and I can’t think think of anything more sensational than a well-designed phone with a PicoP built-in.
BBY? Now? I’m with you DT. Ack. My head hurts. I’m going to the gym. Maybe DD will be there and I can drop a weight on his dumbell.
NQ – 0.23%
YM + 0.43%
ES + 0.68%
ER2 + 0.97%
Weird day. Who would have picked the Russell over the Nas?
MVIS- drinks Apple Martini’s
DT:
You’re a fucktard.
Kmorph:
Tok just emailed and said “We are following the same course…nothing changed.”
Anyone who saw Dell shit the bed last night?
Disclosure — I waited for the gap up on the open.
PS — Which includes that I still am not buying stock.
So bored I’m watching Willard Romney on C-SPAN2.
Flytard,
C’mon, the Dow just rallied over 600 points in 3 days led by the most beaten down names. Isn’t that the definition of a short-squeeze?
-DT
Sorry, that was the end of Tokman’s e-mail, not a “PS” to Riverrat.
Say Riverrat… I used to play rugby in Richmond with a similary appellated team.
Is there a connection?
Bison,
You mean “my next President” don’t you?
Fly, ans Co.
Speaking about trash, the Bond Insures have been a no mans land, hit hard, like a like someone who dear ly insulted the FLY MAN himself, an amtom bomb…..But things may change and theirs lots of shorts covering and upside…the list
abk,pmi,mbi,rdn,mtg and sca or sac-
What’da think….
Jake, nah, I’m just a river rat …
Jake, I don’t trust anyone who went to Hahvahd Lawr.
Expecting another squeeze and using low end garbage …. then what could be better than SIRI …. DOJ ruling due today or Monday and FCC decision to follow ….
http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?view=CN&WTmodLOC=C3-News-2&symbol=SIRI.O&storyID=2007-11-27T212624Z_01_N27529482_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-SHORTINTEREST-NASDAQ-FACTBOX.XML&type=qcna
http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?view=CN&WTmodLOC=C3-News-4&symbol=SIRI.O&storyID=2007-11-14T214648Z_01_N14202507_RTRIDST_0_SOROS-HOLDINGS-URGENT.XML&type=qcna
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/bear-stearns-doj-ok-sirius/story.aspx?guid=%7B9E9DDBC5%2D8777%2D43BC%2D82BF%2DD9A5C518A5A4%7D&dist=TQP_Mod_mktwN
I like the 40 and 35 $ calls on mbi, also I like rdn looking at the calls NOW….if the stock comes in a bit more I would nibble,,,
after a 700 point rally total p/c today is over 1 and ise p/c very low. very bullish. i think the homies and stocks like cfc-wm-fnm-fre-mbi are really going to rock and roll. the q’s may actually underperform. imagine if the boe and ecb cut rates next wk.
Bison… He got his MBA at Harvard and picked up the JD as an addendum because he was bored and his IQ was 150 points higher than the next smartest guy.
He never practiced law, which is an important thing to note when assessing deal guys.
Anyone who has ever practiced law is irredeemably compromised, unfortunately.
Never underestimate a short squeeze. Especially when people started shorting this thing after the first two hundred points and have been plowing in ever since. Is it just me, or is the crowded trade to be short?
crowded.
The shorts all think this rally will fail.
Hence, they are reupping their bets here.
We go up another 500 points from here, near term.
If you were watching the tape yesterday, there was selling all day, but the bears didn’t really get anywhere with it. It is likely a matter of who wears out first. It is much tougher being short, so the bias has got to be long.
I heard romney employs illegal s at his mansion. rudy rudy rudy.
Sorry.
Non-Protestants will never become President.
We’ve tried that shit before. Sadly, it didn’t work out too good.
Fly Said: Tok just emailed and said “We are following the same course…nothing changed.â€
you mean he said, ‘we are fulloweeng thee sam cooorse… nofeeng chainged.’
Doesn’t matter who the GOP nominates, the women and black people will go all out for Hillary. I’ll just throw my vote away and write in for Ron Paul next November.
Looks like the bond insurers are ready to head for day highs…..mbi abk mtg rdn and so on….what could make them come in from here now? especially with the propect for good news by monday for the US and Banks..hey these pices of crap paper are gonna jump, and their prolbems will be relived some…home prices will also see some gains..
GOOG and AMZN positive. Spokesperson for fat lady makes vague reference to a “scheduling conflict” as the entourage abruptly leaves.
Bison,
Hillary is no lock. She is far too hated to ever convert voters. With the electorate so divided, I think a less polarizing centrist would fare better.
-DT
The math is simple. None of these Republicans is electable. Hillary is the least bad among the Dems.
We’re fucked regardless.
Bison — problem with your woman supposition is that half the women in the US hate her.
Maybe more than half.
Vote Huckabee
Romney’s eminantly electable. Sadly for one major reason:
He’s good looking.
Got that fucktard Clinton elected.
The title of this post led me to believe that you’re advocating a buy on WMI.
Apparently I inferred wrong, but I guess then it’s up to me to advocate it. Buy WMI. They’re looking to rebound off the asshanding they’ve received for the past 2 months. Can’t have garbage piling up now, can we?
Notice: This is by no means an educated call, the idea is purely a result the title of this post.
Huckabee would be fine if he weren’t a tax raising fool.
He wants to eliminate all Federal Income and Payroll taxes, Jake.
His stance on prevantative healthcare measures is the smartest I’ve seen yet.
We can all short the shit out of the market if the good looking one (Edwards) wins.
Volume coming into indexes is average.
Fly’s right, it is hard to be short here.
The bulls have got to push up through 1490 and 2700(comp) and it will be lights out for bears, at least until Dec. 11
Good to see A/D still around 4 to 1 and up vol 4.5X down vol.
Bulls still in control. There could very well be a short squeeze. Tradebots in position. Sorry, Jake.
i do admit i have an iq under par, but i don’t think it matters as to who is in the white house.
Money coming into account on low trading volume, what should I do shed???
You dead wrong, chivason.
Alpha, I don’t see the leaders leading here.
If not, then who are the 4 to 1s? Is it garbage leading this?
I’m not trying to be sarcastic. I’m thinking DT could be right that the short squeeze is petering out.
No offense (petering out) to Fly’s MVIS penis.
bison- would not be the first time.
Wood,
While it’s true it’s a tough spot to be short, I think it’s tougher to be buying here.
Perhaps it’s best to just chill out and wait a couple of weeks before acting heavily one way or the other.
Who is the new dickhead, “Dennis” on CNBC? Can’t they find anyone likeable?
-DT
wood- is possible we could be seeing a change in leadership
Chivas, absolutely, if you follow traditional theory. In fact, that would be a big positive for the Bulls.
DT- Chilling out here makes sense. I think we could be range bound.
Fly: Please enforce your “No Politics” rule.
WTF Is this now a political blog ? Screw politcs !
F*ck the Repukelicans and the Democraps !
Party’s over boys. If the last two rate cuts couldn’t get things on track what makes people believe another rate cut will. Cutting rates is like treating cancer with morphine. You can surpress the pain temporarily but the root problem still remains.
Cutting rates will accomplish nothing.
Fly,
Maybe one day next year, like on Super Tuesday or something, we can all talk politics and let the fur fly.
How about that?
-DT
Chivas, who is likely to lead out? Or where does the leadership seem to be coming from?
consumer discretionary and financials in my opinion. healthcare should catch up
tech will continue to do well also
Bond insures = run run run , run away! ah the music!
If financials lead out of this, I’ll be surprised. I like healthcare and large cap tech.
Chivas,
Quick note… the financials will not be “leading” the market anytime soon.
I think the ag names and the energy sector could continue to lead should this “rally” continue.
Meanwhile, if it does continue, I’ll discontinue the use of quotation marks when I say, rally.
-DT
I like huckelberry…seemed to be in touch.. he would be bad for bwld good for ntri.
Meanwhile, out in the real world, I wonder how cheaper credit is going to solve the problem of a broken model for funding that credit.
The rush by state and municipal short-term cash funds to barf up the asset-backed commercial paper they hold is revving up. Grab some popcorn.
We can also start up the betting pool on the number of simultaneous lawsuits that CFC will be involved in, as each link of the mortgage financing/securitization/insuring/rating chain sues every other link.
Ottnot, what do you think about the default swaps?
wood, i strongly believe that the yield curve is about to steepen big time. that and if and i admit is a big if, bernanke and paulson succeed it will almost be a perfect storm for the financials and even the homies. what hurt the market imo was the stupid fed minutes of 10/31. they will not make that mistake again. the stakes are too high. people that say cuts did not help are dead wrong. it was those 10/31 minutes that did the market in. fly got it right, no confidence. fed and paulson will not let that happen again. they got religion really quick. the surprise will be imo, that as the fed cuts the dollar will go higher. sorry for the long rant. and wood you’re incredibly right, a change in leadership will be incredibly bullish.
How much JCG do you own? Curious as there could be a massive squeeze on it soon with the big short position in it.
ottnott:
cheaper credit saves us how? becasuse these banks can avoid putting all that crap back on the balance sheet… as long as they have sufficent tier 1 capital they can tell the regulators to pound salt… as for lawsuits, banks have more lawyers on payroll that your girl friend has crabs in his boxers…keeping the crap off the balacne sheet is the only thing that matters.
crowded trades that i think will unravel; short dollars – long oil -long gold and ( long q’s and short financials )
Nice call on TIF!
I like where your head’s at, Chivas.
godcat- thank you
TIF shaping up to be a textbook technical short. And you say you don’t read charts.
Maybe if I draw a penis on it, you’ll pay more attention.
Chivas, only problem. If the dollar short unravels, what will that do to manufacturing and exports?
In March ’03 we tested the Oct. ’02 lows. Sentiment was extremely bearish, the FED was accomodative and the tax cuts provided fiscal stimulus. Tech/telecom, the former leaders, didn’t lead. Nobody believed the the beaten to a pulp materials/resources would lead the market higher. But they did.
We just tested the August lows. Sentiment is extremely bearish. The FED is accomodative, and all signs are pointing to a federally assisted housing bailout (fiscal stimulus). The beaten to a pulp financials are leading, and nobody believes in the rally.
Anybody notice a pattern?
Wood, I have no background in that area, but common sense says that the person selling the insurance used models that underestimated the losses on mortgage-related securities by at least an order of magnitude.
Which means that they can’t make good on their side of the deal.
I’m too lazy to provide a live link right now, but here’s some discussion on the matter:
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2007/11/counterparty-risk-problems-with-credit.html
Wood give me the technical read on GS when you get a chance. I am looking for it to get to 240.
This coming from a man who has been short the market and long MVIS, what a combo these days.
wood, i don’t think thats a problem, it will not happen overnight and i believe in the global growth scenario. our exports manufacturing will be fine.
Question Please: If I were intrested to buy a long call on the 10 year (tnx) what symbol do I need, ? or how? thanks Alll!
Gapping, you’ve got a lot of resistance at today’s highs. Actually, today was a third test of a downtrend line.
Also, the Bollinger Bands are tightening with the upper band just below 240 today. This is measuring a decrease in volatility.
It looks like it might get range bound here between 205 and 235. Although a *quick* jump up to 240 wouldn’t be surprising. It will just get met with quick selling, imo.
Given time, I’ll put a chart up of it tonight. It is an interesting pattern.
NewE, please. My short position was doubled today and it is still not worth more than 2K.
I may be bearish, but I’m not an idiot.
Frosty wrote:
“keeping the crap off the balacne sheet is the only thing that matters”
Worked well for Enron, didn’t it?
The off-balance-sheet crap doesn’t go away and it will keep getting crappier.
pudfucker – great post.
Talking about the December calls?
Why is the time of all posts off by 2 hours? Can’t you throw something at your trader/servant/webmaster?
And what the hell is a “woodshedder”?
What a wooden dog does?
A builder of Sheds?
A whittler?
Or what happens during a hot lesbian porno scene and your TV inexplicably changes channels to Rosie Odonnel?
Thanks wood I am long GS calls and short LEH via puts.
ottnott,
Bingo.
-DT
It’s where one gets taken out to…
yes…..I only know the index symbol TNX and I see its just that not tradable, is their and etf that follows it…TIA.
Cigars
The time stamp was fixed last night.
It really has been 2 hours since last post, ironically.
Got the TIF tip from an employee.
The guy makes the fucking bracelets.
Gapping, there are a variety sites out there for free that will calculate probability of the options closing in the money.
Cigars, ask Boomer. He can tell you what a woodshedder does.
LOL at the O’donnel joke.
And yeah, what’s up with the time of these posts?
Finall question, will we stay range bound all day, or will be break out of it?
Anyone here want to play with dynamite and buy ETFC Jan 09 5’s
I am opening some nice vintage whiskey thanks to JCG!
No idea why you want to buy one call but here’s it is:
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/options1.asp?symb=TNX
Cut loose 50% of my JCG position at 48.
ottnot know not…you compare the us banking system to enrone…and yes if crap stays off the balcance sheet it goes away without impacting the captial stucture of the banks balance sheet…tier one capital is pooring in from around the world to keep that very thing from happening…ottnot “I have no back round in the area, but commons sense”…common sense an a buck will get you a cup of coffer…intro to banking, class dismissed.
Gap-I’m surprised you have any fingers left.
I got a gaudy direct mail pc. from E- Trade touting $5 trades and .75 cent options per contract for 6 months, somebody had to pay the postage. I’m not sure I’d want be the printer though.
Frosty, tier one capital is trickling in. Definitely not pouring.
Nice trade Gapping.
Alright Broker don’t fuck me here pal, I took a position in VMI. Looks good risk/reward vs LNN.
Frosty –
That’s nice. The banks won’t fail.
There’s a big world out there. Some parts of it aren’t a bank.
Thanks for the lesson. Can I get out of this cramped little closet now?
Thanks Wood, whats funny is my mom, who is a fucking shop-a-holic, did most of the work for me. She said to short ANF by the way. Odd, no?
Has anybody seen Jake lately?
Somebody took hostages in a Clinton campaign office.
Thanks B Burge- Much appricated your effort ! but thta the same I have, not a real bond trader I guess, thats the index, I have no idea what the underlying security would be….IF ANYONE KNOW HOW TO BUY CALLS AND PUTS ON THE TEN YEAR TNX PLEASE LET ME NO…otherwise….I will call my broke!r
How the hell did you manage to insert an exclamation point in that word?
ottnot…peace…all is not well with the world,I do concur…but, folks here need not hear uninformed crisis mongering, the tape is tuff enough to manage without such senseless blather..oooppsss…sorry, peace phase II….this time I really mean it.
How!e has alot of money. I!ll betcha.
I hope no one is losing money, but I got to tell you it is making my fucking day to see these big ass reversal candles across the boards.
stick a fork in the rally
monday may start out ok due to beginning of month inflows & buying but I’d go the other way on that
A woodshedder is someone who practices their instrument with rigor. You “go to the woodshed” to study and get your shit together. Then you come out and burn.
I bet woodshedder plays almost as good as me. Playing guitar is the single most bestest thing I do.
BTW – BOOM printed $66 and then the shorts piled on. Bitches. I hate em. That is why I keep adding. Just to frustrate them.
Boomer- a Collings D1-A.
Howie, I don’t know if your broker can help you because your question doesn’t make any sense.
Boom is being taken down due to CFO selling shares, longs bailing as CFO is calling a top with his sells.
Boomer- send me an email. I have a vid of me pickin’
Liste!n All I have to say is, I would like to buy options on the 10 year? Thats it.
howie, look at tlt. they have options
“Boom is being taken down due to CFO selling shares, longs bailing as CFO is calling a top with his sells.”
No, wrong. He, the head of sales, and CEO all had planned partial sales. They had not sold a single share in over a year, and recently received a new exec compensation plan with generous options. What they sold was between 5 and 20% of their long term holdings, from a previous plan. Fuck you very much.
See you at $68 next week shorty. I will absolutely rub it in, if you dare identify your anonymous self. Tool.
This shit is bananas.
I give up.
chivasontherocks, thanks forgot about that-
Nice gtr, shed.
I am mainly an electric player. 60s Gretsch 6120. Vintage 70s LP. Vintage SG. Vintage Esquire. Martin M-38 is my main acoustic. I have about 50 gtrs all in. I’ve narrowed in on my amps, though. I used to have a bunch, but have found my voice in a Vox, coincidentally. AC-15. Bunch of pedals. Analogman, Keeley, vintage tape delays, bunch of stuff.
I will ping you for your vid.
TLT is not 10-year.
no thats TLT and its the long B
ok lets talk guitar players …. who are your faves Boom-boom ?
The A/D is now at 2-1; up vol only 2X down vol. The rally is fizzling out. Did somebody unplug Tradebots? I hate it when they do that.
Boom- I’m starting to listen to Country Music- I have to admit I kind of like it- it dumbs you down a bit. Good stuff the world needs more C&W
Ah! Guitar players. Let’s see…
Edge, hands down my fav. Accessible music, wonderful tone, supports the song, breathtaking use of technology.
He is not a real picker, though. More like a painter than a picker.
On the rock side, you can’t go wrong with vintage Eddie Van Halen. Pre meth. Pre Hagar. Pre false teeth. I sent a vid to Fly. Maybe he’ll post it tonight. Just sick.
I like Elton John!
Of course you do fruit loops. And his pink piano.
Edge never impressed me much but I’m not a big U2 fan
Eddie was great way back … haven’t heard him lately … I guess he started that whole tapping thing
Brad Paisley rips it up in country.
Stevie Ray Vaughn.
You know who really owns the Stratocaster? Believe it or not, John damn Mayer. Really. He’s gonna be great if all the porn and blow dont get him first.
Ah-hum…and now, from the music scene, back to the market….
John Mayer has game.
I guess not
Fuck Elton John.
Fuck all musicians…pussies! (except for alpha-male rappers)
What did the guy say to Elton John at the Night Club?
Can I push your stool in.
shorted 1000 BOOM this morning, I can’t wait for it to drop another 4 points tomorrow.
Rich Robinson of The Black Crowes is one of my faves.
You know what kind of calculator brain it takes to be a good musician? Control 10 fingers, in perfect time, while reading paper, and listening to other musicians (who may be high), and create art from thin air that makes people feel things and spend money?
THAT is supercomputerjamtasticfromthefuture stuff.
Stocks are easy compared to that shit.
Boomer, you are right. Now go play with your string.
Brad Paisley is INcredible. Vastly under-rated in my opinion.
I second Mayer.
I listen primarily to Bluegrass so I won’t bore you with my selections.
Only 1000, high roller? I mock your thousand. I sop it up with my biscuit and eat it just so I can shit it.
Bitch, I am up $450k in BOOM since 10/22. Believe it. You will buy my shares at $72. I just raised my price target, to your detriment.
What the neck, am I channeling Fly?
Makin’ somethin out of nothin’
Makin’ music out of air’
Boomer- who sang it?
Hint, the word New is in their name.
Since you’re gay, Shed, I am gonna guess New Order. Ha! Got ya!
Boomer you need to get on the P Gall.
We need some good grits and gravy perspective.
I signed up. Waiting on the “ivory tower” to respond.
Fucker. New Grass Revival!
SLASH fROM HIS GnR days was hands down best guitarist.
New Radicals?
I’m an old guy , so I go way back …. Jimi is #1 for me, no contest
I like Clapton up to about 1970 & Duane Allman was great
a whole bunch of others
Allman- absolutely.
Can’t forget Jerry, either.
Slash is a junkie who shorts BOOM to his detriment. Abe Lincoln lookin, stove pipe hat wearin, Axl Rose hatin, mose ring infectin, herion using BOOM shorter.
The Hybrid Market is a big piece of shit.
-DT
Slash is a douche.
Mike McCready of Pearl Jam is good too.
What’s wrong with Page, Hendrix and Beck?
Django!!
WOOD…now we know who that kid on the porch really was in Deliverance…strum on banjo boy, luv those dualing banjos.
love Brian Setzer
Django … played w only 2 fingers i think? very musical guy
Since we have mostly held, I think this puts the market in good shape to go higher next week. I would call the rally intact.
Page is spent
Becks always been good, still is
3. But who’s counting (past three anyway).
PS – threehorsemen, that was Oct 22, 2007, in case you are wondering. like 30 days ago.
wait till it gaps up in your face on monday. the tearing sound you will most likely hear is one of two things:
1) your wallet being torn from your jacket pocket
2) a sock full of stale biscuits ripping your eye from its socket
ps – see that 122k short cover after hours? mmmm, here comes the biscuits. cover your head.
Juice,
You LOVE Brian Setzer? “Do like I told you, stay away from me! Never misunderstand me, keep away from me.” (Godsmack)
Page was great. Beck may still be great, but I hear he prefers cars now. Setzer, great. Django, great. Pearl Jam? Not so much.
Hendrix, of course.
whats wrong w setzer dawg? the act is kinda guy but he can play
Hey Boomer, ever hear Cal Collins?
I like Setzer…ok in my book….don’t love him though.
Only 1000, high roller? I mock your thousand. I sop it up with my biscuit and eat it just so I can shit it.
_________________
It’s hard to sit once you’ve laughed your ass off.