More bear market fun.
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Joined Nov 10, 2007
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I think we retest SPX 1390 and DOW 12600 at some point. If those are broken, then DOW 12K very possible. How soon? No idea. This could be the worst November / December market performances in a while.
No shit, Sherlock.
Fry–Yu corlect. Honorlable beah-shittas now lipping face off honorlable bools. Flucking unrhea. Nehva see dis much ahzhahterly in my rife. Hai-yaaah !
fuck it all. buy the stock trading robot and forget your troubles.
20
that would take all the fun out of it
Wanghung– ya gotta get more detail oriented.
Not “bools” but “burrs.”
So solly, Mista Jake. I no go moh faa den fourf glade in erementarly skoo.
But, I must corlect you. In Shenzen, we say “bools”. I know, flucktaaded.
You’re all assholes.
Good night.
“flucktalded”…my sperring not so goo.
Goo nite, Honorlable Mista Fry.
Sweet dleams in Lomainia.
Wang Hung is now making a run at Jake Gint’s record level posting frequency percentage.
Good night, dipshits.
Goo nite, Juju beah flucka.
On a happier note, the Hang Seng is down almost 1,000 points (3.50%). /sarcasm
Fucked is what we are.
The hang seng moves 1k+ every day
GRMN up huge PM. BIDU up huge.
Bears get castrated today. Fuck the Bear Market! Bulls win until we violate the August lows on a closing basis. Good morning.
everyone ought to take a look at MELI
Bulls, Run Free With MercadoLibre
By Patrick Schultz
RealMoney Contributor
11/14/2007 4:00 PM EST
URL: http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmoney/internet/10390183.html
MercadoLibre (MELI) released stellar quarterly and year-to-date numbers last night, and I had the fabulous problem of deciding which parts of its great earnings report to highlight.
To keep it simple, I’ll start with the big picture, which happens to be the best part: I believe the bull move is just warming up. After coming public this past August, the company’s story is not yet “out there” (translation: brokers aren’t peddling the name), and only four analysts cover the company.
Remember, I view MercadoLibre as the proxy investment for e-commerce in Latin America. If you believe, as I do, that commerce over the Internet will grow exponentially in Latin America, then this is the stock to watch. It’s the Latin American version of eBay (EBAY) , Amazon (AMZN) , and PayPal (now owned by eBay) all stuffed into one rip-roaring growth stock.
Growth Just Getting Going at Mercadolibre
The numbers speak for themselves:
* Operating income growth year-over-year of 422.4% to $6.0 million.
* Revenue growth year-over-year of 72.4% to $22.8 million.
* Reported EPS of 13 cents compared with consensus estimates of 6 cents (upside surprise of 116%).
As I discussed in my first column on the stock, there are two key operational aspects that I believe will act as upside catalysts:
1. Increasing margins. Operating margins improved by 130 basis points as the company benefited from lower sales and marketing costs.
2. MercadoPago. The south of the border version of PayPal did not disappoint me. I wrote previously that “consensus on the Street is not reflecting the monster upside to EPS that it could provide down the road.” This was borne out: Revenue growth accelerated at a 142% clip to $4.7 million, way ahead of the Street’s view.
Next, let’s address the inevitable knee-jerk reaction from the “outrageously overvalued” crowd. I have been saying that the earnings power of the MercadoLibre business model could post $1 in 2009, and the analyst numbers are moving closer to my number. For example, today RBC Capital boosted its ’09 estimate to 98 cents from 87 cents.
Using earnings estimates of $1, MercadoLibre trades for 42 times 2009 EPS. Is a stock outrageously overvalued at that forward price-to-earnings ratio? Absolutely, if you are talking about Pfizer (PFE) , which has a growth rate of less than 5%.
But at MercadoLibre, we’re talking about runaway growth. As of Monday, the company had an implied growth rate of 148% on ever-rising forward numbers. The company is accelerating its growth and deserves a premium valuation. I can see the company trading between 80 and 100 times earnings, which would still be below its growth rate.
A direct comparison to the U.S. e-commerce names today is not completely appropriate because Latin America is in a much earlier phase of the growth and adoption curve for that business. I view MELI as being comparable to eBay, Amazon and PayPal in 1998, not 2007. Why is this important? Earlier-stage growth companies get (and deserve) higher multiples.
The value of MercadoPago is becoming increasingly clear. eBay paid $1.5 billion in 2002 for PayPal. With MELI’s current market cap of only $1.8 billion, you are getting the Latin eBay and Amazon for only $300 million. I find that risk/reward scenario more than appealing.
Let me emphasize how incredible and important it is that this company is already profitable. Remember back in the ol’ days of the American Internet craze, when high-flying Internet stocks were bleeding money but promising profits years down the road? This is not the case with MELI. It’s profitable now and doesn’t need to make starry-eyed forecasts.
Also, the fuel that will drive the stock higher is the simple fact that the forward numbers are too low. Don’t outthink this; when estimates rise, it’s a safe bet that stock prices will rise as well.
Finally, and a bit on the lighter side: How can any true, cold-blooded cutthroat capitalist not be enamored of the stock of a company named MercadoLibre (which means “free market” in Spanish, for our linguistically challenged readers)? Viva the free markets!
WHL- that is some funny shit.
http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/071116/0329680.html
BOOM makes accretive acquisition.
GRMN is a short off this arb unwind
anyone who bought the last 7 days will blow this out like Captain Ahab out of Moby Dicks blow hole
Jake: Can I interest you in a GRMN short?
No manual trading for me today. I purchased the stock trading robot. I am going to the golf course and will let the robot make me over 10%. Bye.
I’m waiting until the Chinese Model comes out:
The “Stock Tlading Lobot.”
Does laundry on the weekends.
Brucie… there are so many dogs to short, why gamble on shorting leaders? That one Woodie recommended is a good one I think. The chemical company.
Boomer, I don’t see how investing in exploding oil wells can ever be accretive.
Boomer-Mozila Joint Venture?? in Paris, Tennessee?
Bruce, sorry I didn’t realize how ridiculous the premarket was on GRMN. I can’t imagine it won’t be a nice short here on this gap.
We have Paris, we have the Parthenon, we have Jack Daniels. We have it all.
I think KY has Paris, London, Versailles and of course, the capitol, Franfort.
Er, “Frankfort.”
And Woodford Reserve.
Same company, better corn liquor.
Boom, you ever deal with that parent company? (Not Woodford Reserve/Jack Daniels, but the Tanning Distributor’s?)
Jake – no, never heard of em
Houchen’s Industries?
I just Googled them (pay attention, Weed). I realize they are huge, but I had never heard of them or done bidness wif dem.
Solly.
Outstanding view on Asian Bears Seize the Heads Off Bulls, in Early Trading. Thoroughly enjoy this interesting posts!