iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
20,692 Blog Posts

Mess With the Bull; You Get the Horns

This was good. “The Fly” was a very happy camper, despite never going camping, as all of his positions, with the exception of MVIS, shot the bears–then rolled on them.

I know the bears will try to make the “hedge funds will sell due to redemptions” argument, but it holds little water.

Days like today serve as lessons to never sell short, into extreme weakness.

It’s easy to make the bear argument, discount stocks for dead, and be a miserable fuck.

It’s hard to buy VMW down 11, knowing that shit will sprint higher, as soon as investors grab their marbles.

Barring “another big shoe to drop,” I think the bottom is in; feel free to get drunk and start buying stocks again.

Starting tomorrow, my buy list includes VMI, BWLD, CLX, CN, FMCN, VMW and CFC.

Yes, CFC.

In short, it’s good to see green again, much to the shorts chagrin.

NOTE: XFML‘s numbers look good, thus far.

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86 comments

  1. Dinosaur Trader

    Not to be a dick (although I’m sure I’ll get called one) but if we really hit a “bottom” then for a 320 rally, the second biggest of all time (I think that’s what some idiot on CNBC said) the volume on the NYSE really sucked, at less than 1.7 billion shares traded.

    If we hit a bottom, we need the institutions to buy big. Today, I think we saw a lot of short covering… so, more of the same for the market… light volume rallies, big volume sell-offs. We should be testing yesterday’s lows sometime next week I imagine.

    Okay, call me a fucktard.

    -DT

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  2. hog

    why do you like vmi it ended down on a great day. they are unloading it..whoever they are?

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  3. TraderCaddy

    Fly-You need to consider the entire Fast Money Team from CNBC for the Asshat of the week award. If you saw it last night (or go warth its video) they were bearish in the short term. They kept talking about the VIX. I bet today they say they are bullish. Their market predictions are based on what ever happened on the day of the show.

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  4. buckeye bob

    K Finerman called for a monster day sometime this week due to expirations

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  5. Juice

    classic bear market rally … until proven otherwise

    this turd in glasses on cnbc is declaring the worst over … not gonna take someones word for it who’s still in diapers

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  6. The Fly

    +320 is not a ‘classic bear market rally.’

    Sorry, you’re a fucking jerk off.

    Go grab the ‘homo-hammer.’

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  7. brian

    broker a why do you feel vmi is still under so much selling pressure

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  8. Juice

    2.5% is classic … change your soiled diapers & go check your market history

    that said, fucker, we will have to allow for asia to rally 8% …. so be prepared for juiced am futes

    we’ll call this the Kass rally

    viz

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  9. Razorback

    Maybe I didn’t get the memo, since when are the US indexes considered to be in a bear market?

    Besides, the bear market doesn’t kick in until 2009-2011.

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  10. Juice

    razor … your schedule is outdated & outmoded … the bear was henceforth & forthwidth moved up to late 2007-2012

    trade accordingly

    viz

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  11. Razorback

    Someone help me here, does Juice = Ducati ?

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  12. Danny

    markets are discouting ’09 today toolbox

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  13. HORNDOG

    This is OE week, just relax and enjoy the show. The market is ready to tase the balls of option holders everywhere, via “max pain” and “pinning”, punishing them for their wicked bearish ways.

    Also, all bear markets have been suspended indefinitely. The Dow will trade between roughly 13000 and 14000 until the elections, at which time a new range will be determined by the FOMC. That’s how I’m playing it, anyway.

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  14. Jake Gint

    No, as much of an asshat as Ducati is, he’d never say “Forthwidth.”

    That’s like the jerknecks in trucker hats down here who tell me about a guy’s “heidth” in judging his ability to play hoops.

    IOW, “Cracker action.”

    _______________

    Speaking of “cracker action” and it’s polar opposites…

    “NEVER” been camping?

    How much of a Street of Flatbush greaseball ARE you?

    Geezus, I’m from Lawn Guyland, land of paved potato farms and ferocious grey squirrels, but I still went camping every now and again.

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  15. The Fly

    Jake:

    Your Mother milks retarded goats in wealthy Romanian cities. Does that make you cultured?

    I didn’t think so.

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  16. Juju bear

    I think it’s funny how you actually believe your own bullshit. LMFAO!

    Do your clients know you do this shit? Or, have you given that all up for internet blogging?

    Know this: Next Monday, the market will be about where it was yesterday.

    In this market environment, bullish bravado is for asshats!

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  17. The Fly

    Camping is for fucking idiots.

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  18. Jake Gint

    Dawg–

    After consideration, I believe I’d rather have my balls tazed than “candled” like they were today with the slow march of the Cubes. At least “tazing” is over in a relatively short bursting, if foul-smelling, instant.

    I don’t believe tazing results in the “chestnut effect” either.

    I feel a Mel Torme classic coming on….

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  19. The Fly

    Juju:

    I like your bravado.

    However, I really would like to see your house foreclosed on too.

    Developing…

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  20. Jake Gint

    Certainly goat raising — even in Romania — will not guarantee aculturation.

    Yogurt issues aside.

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  21. Jake Gint

    Camping is for fucking idiot adults.

    Agreed.

    Which is why my parents were smart enough to get someone else (ie, the Scouts and their earnest but dweebish “masters”) to take me camping.

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  22. cigars3

    XINHUA FINANCE MEDIA LTD (XFML.O: Quote, Profile , Research): * Third quarter revenue $40.7 million * Third quarter net earnings per share $0.21/ADS * Forecasts fourth quarter revenue $42 million to $47 million

    Might be fucked. They only beat earnings by 50%.

    And analyst consensus is 47.2 for 4Q.

    Could go down 92% tomoorow. Or up to $10

    Is the call at 5pm or tomorrow at 8am. Ive seen both.

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  23. The Fly

    Unfortunately, “little Fly” didn’t have such ‘luxories [sic].’

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  24. mrkcbill

    I like to camp at Mandalay Bay.

    Jake, the Misfit is roaming around out there somewhere.

    Who is the dude on CNBC that looks like Elvis Costello?

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  25. The camper

    “F” U Jake, and your mother’s retarded goats.

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  26. cigars3

    Net income for the third quarter of 2007 was $9.0 million, up 964%
    year-over-year from $0.8 million in the third quarter of 2006 or up
    301% sequentially from $2.3 million in the second quarter of 2007.
    — Adjusted net income (non-GAAP),

    Shit. they aren’t up 1000% y/y. Everyone knows that stocks that dont produce at least 2500% y/y get hammerred.

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  27. Drifter

    Fly . . .

    What to do about MVIS? I hold a lot of shares — maybe not as much as you, but a lot by most standards. I’m getting more than a little nervous about some doubts floating around regarding the PicoP technology having some fundamental issues that’s making mass production more of a challenge than we have been lead to believe.

    Can you provide any guidance / encouragement? I know you have stated that you are absolutely sold on MV’s tech and game plan.

    Anything helps.

    Thanks

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  28. Juju bear

    Yo Fly,

    My crib done paid fo’, mofo. Sheeit! No foreclosura when dere’s no loan, dawg.

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  29. The Fly

    Juju:

    Tru dat.

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  30. Juju bear

    Axe me some-in’ else. I be tellin’ no lies.

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  31. HORNDOG

    Jake,

    I certainly won’t judge another man’s preferred method of self-gratification, via electro-shock or hot candle wax. However, if the market drops significantly this week, I will be surprised (but, I’m closing out bullish spreads as they ripen).

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  32. Jake Gint

    Not “Some-in else.”

    but rather,

    “Suh-in else.”

    As in:

    “Excuse me, but what’s the name of that skinny island in between the Jersey Palisades and Long Island City?”

    “Mah-HA-in…. bee-atch!”

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  33. Alvari40

    Jakem

    I just peed my pants – thanks bee-atch

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  34. Jake Gint

    You’re welcome.

    ______________________

    And now, a Bernie Schaeffer “Contrarian Takeaway Moment” starring HANS:

    Schaeffer’s Daily Contrarian: Hansen (HANS): A Natural Choice?

    The Motley Fool
    Hansen Needs Help
    Published: 11/9/2007
    Brief summary:

    This article is a recap of an earlier piece taking a look at Hansen Natural’s (HANS: sentiment, chart, options) earnings report. The takeaway of the earlier article was “sell if you think energy drinks are another fad; buy if you think that 20 years of Red Bull history has established a caffeine-source alternative to Starbucks (SBUX). Boom or bust, Hansen remains a legitimate leader in that market.” Well, after the disappointing third-quarter sales results and subsequent stock plunge, the author revisits “corporate leadership issues.” Actually, the leadership issues surround the company’s coffee-based Java Monster drink. Management has called it a “lower-margin” product, but the company has been “pushing hard” to get it on store shelves. The question raised concerns the “wisdom of chasing sales at the expense of margins, unless there’s some serious brand-building going on. I don’t think Java fits that well in Hansen’s product portfolio, so the brand argument gets a bit lost.”
    The article also notes that manufacturing problems, higher dairy prices, and distribution snafus contributed to “a hefty revenue miss – $11 million short of Wall Street’s $258 million forecast.” The company’s CEO, Rodney Sacks, believes that “the expansion of [the energy drink] category into this coffee area is an extremely exciting number for us. We think that that will help expand the category.”
    Contrarian Takeaway:

    I will not argue that the company may want to “expand the board of directors by a couple of seats, and bring in some heavy-duty product-development or marketing experts,” as it could help HANS to get some “new eyes” looking at its situation. However, I don’t think that this reasoning alone justifies being bearish on this company. Yes, the stock plunged after its third-quarter earnings and revenue report; but, the shares have found some support. The equity has come to rest on its 80-week moving average, which it has never closed below. Let’s see if this trendline can help usher the stock above the 45 level, which has acted as support in the past.
    There is some sentiment in place that could help push the stock higher. Currently, 8.74% of HANS’s float is sold short, which could spark a short-covering rally should any good news chase the bears from their pessimistic perches. The problem here is that it would only take 2.6 days to buy back these shorted shares, nearly eliminating the chance for a sustained short-squeeze situation.
    A shift in sentiment from analysts could help push HANS higher as well. Zacks shows just 4 analysts following the firm, 3 of which rate it a “hold.” A shift to the bullish from this commitment-fearing bunch could help the stock regain some success, so keep an ear out for any good news. Further bullish momentum could come from positive initiations, should analysts decide that the stock’s recent drop is a mere speed bump in the stock’s road higher.

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  35. cigars3

    Drifter, what is it you hear about the “fundamental issues” and what is your source? I havent heard anything of that sort, and I follow MVIS very closely.

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  36. Juju bear

    In the future, HANS will be dealing with lawsuits out their ass from the over-caffeinated crap they peddled to their victims. Don’t believe me? Jump in Fly’s time machine and behold.

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  37. alphadawgg

    My positions did such a good job at poleaxing the bears today, that I can’t stop laughing (a la Ray Liotta).

    Juju– go rotate on a metal spike.

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  38. cigars3

    Fly,

    (if you bother to read down this far in the comments section)

    I noticed a link on the right to “notable calls”. Never seen it before. Intersting.

    His research look good and is helpful. But is this guy any good with his calls. He used to work on the street I gather?

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  39. gappingandyapping

    Cigars: Brian does a great job at charting when the market is going down. I really like his analysis and turn to it when I can’t make sense of the market. Keep in mind he is a trend trader and will only trade trends, not individual fundamentals.

    Broker any more analysis of the XFML release?

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  40. TraderCaddy

    Cigars- I have read Notable Calls every morning in the early AM for about ten months or so. Being mostly a day trader I find his commentary mostly spot on. I always put his picks and pans on my watch list and have been pretty successful at following along. It’s apparent to me he must have some friends on the Street.

    Note to Long Islanders- Levitt & Sons Homebuilders filed Bankruptcy in Fl yesterday.

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  41. Jake Gint

    Wow, the end of an era.

    I had many friends at my HS from Levittown.

    The First one, I’m pretty sure.

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  42. Mikey

    This new website reminds me of when metallica sold out…….. I really didnt give a shit.

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  43. kd

    fly fucking mvis is pissing me off man. I can’t believe on a big day like this we lost fucking 3 cents.

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  44. WildWestie

    MVIS is like a cactus in everyone’s eye. WTF isn’t Tokman buying at these levels? Probably the same reason Wilson was selling at much higher levels.

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  45. Juice

    exactly … no insider buying, even under $4.00 … pathetic … trend is down … and out

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  46. Juice

    even the CEO of MATH bought another 100k @ 0.93 . He now owns 1.6 million shares.

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  47. Harry the Horse

    MVIS sucks my aunt’s cock. Jeff Wilson can go fuck a camel and Toke-man is a certifiable asshat. I will chase these fuckers to hell and back to recoup my losses in this POS investment. Fuck em all and let the Lord sort em all out. Off for whiskey…..developing

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  48. Fly's Owner (tim)

    buy an airline

    ALGT, AMR, XJT get my approval and FMXL is the most under followed and mis priced stock of all time… I will consider it a total waste of our time unless its trading 20-25 in a year… if its trading less than 20 its a total failure

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  49. Fly's Owner (tim)

    oh….QCOM going higher

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  50. The Fly

    Tim:

    Post your stuff in the Peanut Gallery.

    Feel free to promote your site, if you want.

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  51. mdawsz

    Don’t tase me bro

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  52. Daniel

    I couldn’t understand some parts of this article Mess With the Bull; You Get the Horns, but I guess I just need to check some more resources regarding this, because it sounds interesting.

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