Post your trade ideas for the upcoming week in the comment section. Remember, we are looking for price patterns.
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Hecla Mining. Ticker Symbol HL. Has been very volitile over the last 6 months between 8-12.
I have been using the Jan 09 $10 Calls to play this. Take a look.
On the short side, I like:
WFR MEMC Electronics (descending triangle)
JBHT JB Hunt Transport Services (double top)
EL Estee Lauder (rising wedge)
I’m still fond of CAT for another go at the short side. JBHT is definitely my favorite for next week.
Long: possibly GSK Glaxo Smith Kline
My outlook is fairly bearish and I just don’t have the commitment or desire to find more long candidates.
Comments appreciated.
I am hesitant to even think about the longside unless we get some panic selling and capitulation this week. Therefore, the only trades that I would consider are shorts, even though we are so oversold.
SOHU – has rallied back up to the neckline(around $75) of a head and shoulders pattern, also at top of descending channel.
FCSX – forming bear flag and I would think if it rallies weakly up to $30 area, that would be a lower risk entry. I was in this short at $38 but got out at $31.
NFLX – forming bear flag and has rallied right up to 200 day MA; only problem is volume was higher on this bounce.
V and MR – both look to be breaking down through triangle patterns.
HPY – bearish flag pattern.
GOOG – rallied up to previous support levels around $540 but can’t seem to get through the overhead resistance there.
I also think some of the oils could be done here with the ugly charts they now have (CHK, HK, GMXR to name a few) but I know I am likely in the minority there.
keep ’em coming, video in the works.
CCJ. Could be a possible double top or could be a breakout candidate.
PDO looks like a screaming short to me.
I have only 3 for next week — all shorts. Still feel that despite the oversold conditions we wont bottom out until we get some sort of spike in the VIX.
My top picks are EIX, V and FSLR.
EIX (look for utilities to start to crack). DJ-Utility index has got a head-and-shoulders just about done. EIX is a head-and-shoulders neckline retest right now (ie. relatively week inside the utility space which is even better). Probably the best pattern out there.
V looks to be roling over. Good low-risk entry right here.
FSLR has been the last solar to begin cracking. The stock printed a reversal bar on low volume Thursday after breaking down on Wednesday. Looks like a good entry point right at the open on Monday. If we have an entry bump to 263, I would add. The stock is now outside its long-term trendline. I think target 1 to cover is 235. Ultimately, we should see 200, as energy/alternative energy continues to roll over.
I like the V August puts too, Phil, I’m waiting patiently for it to have a nice big correction.
i’m just waiting for energy to jump the shark. i think coal prices dropping the other day may have been a good first blow.
I’m with Mac on oil. Reversal patterns all over the place. Here are few more nasty looking set-ups:
EOG – head & shoulders
CHK – island top
ATLS – head & shoulders
GMR – double top
Ferts look ready to bounce:
POT, TRA
1. short nihd H&S top, continue long term down trend
2. short cnq triple top, friday break 95 neckline in canadian market
3. short adbe: H&S top, retrace to neckline
4. short xec: H&S top. break neckline thursday
5. short eqix: continue downtrend
Heavy short come Monday on JBHT and EL. I would also buy puts for JBHT especially, since the short float is rising.
credit to boca
(i also see alot of insider selling on the peaks, and i am short until a nice valley) JBHT will probably release earnings mid july.
Also PSS is a long term put (dec?). Sadly, cheap footwear is not an option for most Americans, it cramps our style. I expect it to hit 8, from the H&S pattern and May 8ths insane volume outlook in options.
For longs, if oil holds at least 140 on Monday i will be heavy RIG. 138-142 is my dip pick.
also short CRM as it has lost it’s steam (VOLUME)!!!
1. divergence is increasing
2. management’s silently selling
3. I dont trust the Forward P/E, expect something even higher than 150.
4. H&S pattern just tilted for a smooth elevator shaft.
Boca,
I’ve got huge conviction in the VISA trade.
My only doubt is where to cover. I’m not 100% sure now whether I should be gunning for 75 or 70. The way I look at it, I’d rather just expect 75 initialy. But, if we reach 75 by just dribbling lower — without a panic sell in the broader market and, in turn, a spike in the VIX — it might make sense to reevauate the trade and hold for a bigger move to 70.
What are your thoughts?
ARO is ready to join other retail stocks in the bargain basement. After tempting the shorts with intraday breaks of 31, it closed right on the important number and I think longs are too tired of defending 31 and will let it go. 26 is the next resting place.
Also WMT, while not a fat exciting short, I don’t think is a dangerous/risky one either. The chart looks toppy and it should leak, slowly but surely.
I agree with the CRM short. The chart is rolling over and with nearly a 200pe on 09 #’s and 100 on 08, is way too expensive for this environment. There is no room for a miss or anything but a raise in guidance. This is a big fat short. Its heavily shorted but imo, the trend is now down.
And I agree with the V short on the old descending triangle price pattern. Its a goner.
On the long side, I find CALM interesting, although chartwise its stuck in congestion. Even though the price of corn has gone up, they’ve been able to pass costs on by raising eggs prices. Eggs are still cheap relative to other sources of protein. The price of meat will be going up any day now and when that happens, the price of eggs can only rise. CALM is heavily shorted and according to Barrons, if egg prices only remain where they are, CALM can earn $7 ps next year, and there is a fat 10% dividend. If egg price remain the same, shorts will be fucked. If they rise even further, they will be fucked in every orafice and then some.
WYNN and STT is a winner on ths short side.
Phil, I am not a very brave trader, so I will probably sell most of my Visa puts as it approaches 75. Then, if it breaks down through 75, I can always re-up on some more puts.
Boca,
Sounds like a sensible plan. That might be the better way to go.
By the way: love your JBHT. Adding that one to my list for Monday.
Another one that I forgot to mention before for the board: ODP.
Bear flag right here and part of a wider base that is very close to cracking. I might start shorting on Monday morning with a very tight stop. If the market starts to crumble, this one could be in the 9’s very soon.
ESI doing a retest of the 80 level after BO of a cup and handle formation. Target of 115.
The best one I see by far is the multiyear H+S on ICE that just completed.
Should be good for a big short term move, and a monster long term move down.
I’ve been waiting awhile for this one.
Almost all of the double long ETFs are near Jan. and Mar. support, and are way oversold. Keep them in your sights as they should be bought quickly should any squeeze erupt.
Then again, demand destruction—1st coal, steel, then rest of Energy sector hmmm maybe ill wait on the long RIG and sell out my PBR for now. I should be able to catch it after some unwinding of the energy sector (back to 200MA maybe) is done.
My number one jooziest bank short is CYN.
I agree with the fellow who mentioned “utes to die” — CEG in that department.
A short ETF? Skiffles is my love, but the new champiopn may just be EEV. Thanks to Fly for that last one.
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I am also bearish on this market. But it worries me when so many others are bearish. I will try to assemble a “short squeeze” list for next week.
Get Shorty on AXP, NOK, ACM