A CHESS STYLE MARKET

It pays to be strategic in how/where you position in this tape. If not, the market runs away with your hard earned coin. Yesterday morning as the market indicated trend day early on, I threw up a chart that I thought might help offer a decent comparison to how the market would trade here in the short term. A few months back I said that we’d trade to ATH’s by end of next week, but the volatility here this week suggests we may need to extend that deadline, unless we can get a string of days similar to how we did after the first week of November. That’s still a little more than 50 points away.

Here’s where we started…two different levels as possible targets:

Held the lower target, moved back to the middle:

Here’s the 2011 range:

Yesterday’s move was a ball stomper no doubt, but after nailing a 100+ point move in the /NQ that was posted here in the comments, and a little help from a few friends here, I hope to be back on track early next week.

We’ll be covering a watchlist for next week in After Hours with Option Addict. If you’re finding yourself a bit discouraged, shed it quick, hop on the horse, and close the year out properly.

If you have ideas to make the watchlist, please post in the comments.

OA

I picked up Jan calls this morning. Love this set-up.

More later,

OA

Ambarella, Inc. Announces Third Quarter Fiscal 2016 Financial Results

SANTA CLARA, Calif., Dec. 3, 2015 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Ambarella, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMBA), a leading developer of low-power, HD and Ultra HD video compression and image processing semiconductors, today announced financial results for its third fiscal quarter ended October 31, 2015.

   -- Revenue for the third quarter of fiscal 2016 was $93.2 million, up 41.9%
      from $65.7 million in the same period in fiscal 2015. For the nine months
      ended October 31, 2015, revenue was $248.4 million, up 61.7% from $153.6
      million for the nine months ended October 31, 2014.

   -- Gross margin under U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP)
      for the third quarter of fiscal 2016 was 65.7%, compared with 63.3% for
      the same period in fiscal 2015. For the nine months ended October 31,
      2015, GAAP gross margin was 65.2%, compared with 63.6% for the nine
      months ended October 31, 2014.

   -- GAAP net income for the third quarter of fiscal 2016 was $29.5 million,
      or $0.87 per diluted ordinary share, compared with GAAP net income of
      $18.3 million, or $0.57 per diluted ordinary share, for the same period
      in fiscal 2015. GAAP net income for the nine months ended October 31,
      2015 was $71.4 million, or $2.12 per diluted ordinary share. This
      compares with GAAP net income of $32.9 million, or $1.03 per diluted
      ordinary share, for the nine months ended October 31, 2014.

Financial results on a non-GAAP basis for the third fiscal quarter ended October 31, 2015 are as follows:

   -- Gross margin on a non-GAAP basis for the third quarter of fiscal 2016 was
      65.9%, compared with 63.4% for the same period in fiscal 2015. For the
      nine months ended October 31, 2015, non-GAAP gross margin was 65.4%,
      compared with 63.7% for the nine months ended October 31, 2014.

   -- Non-GAAP net income for the third quarter of fiscal 2016 was $36.6
      million, or $1.08 per diluted ordinary share. This compares with non-GAAP
      net income of $22.1 million, or $0.68 per diluted ordinary share, for the
      same period in fiscal 2015. Non-GAAP net income for the nine months ended
      October 31, 2015 was $90.0 million, or $2.67 per diluted ordinary share.
      This compares with non-GAAP net income of $41.8 million, or $1.31 per
      diluted ordinary share, for the nine months ended October 31, 2014.

Based on information available as of today, Ambarella is offering the following guidance for the fourth fiscal quarter of fiscal year 2016:

   -- Revenue is expected to be between $65.0 million and $67.5 million

   -- Gross margin on a non-GAAP basis is expected to be between 63.0% and
      64.5%

   -- Net income on a non-GAAP basis is expected to be between $15.0 million
      and $17.0 million

Ambarella reports gross margin, net income and earnings per share in accordance with GAAP and, additionally, on a non- GAAP basis. Non-GAAP financial information excludes the impact of stock-based compensation, adjusted for the associated tax impact, and for the nine months ended October 31, 2015 also excludes certain costs associated with the acquisition of VisLab S.r.l. in June 2015. A reconciliation of the GAAP to non-GAAP gross margin, net income and earnings per share numbers for the third fiscal quarter ended October 31, 2015, as well as a description of the items excluded from the non-GAAP calculations, is included in the financial statements portion of this press release.

Total cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities on hand at the end of the third fiscal quarter of 2016 was $ 276.7 million, compared with $186.5 million at the end of the same quarter a year ago.

“Our strong third quarter results reflect our success in expanding revenues in new markets such as flying cameras and home security monitoring, as well as existing markets for professional IP security cameras and automotive after-market dash cameras. Although we expect these markets to continue their strong annual growth, we are experiencing near term headwinds in the wearable sports market which is expected to negatively impact revenue in Q4 of this year,” said Fermi Wang, president and CEO of Ambarella. “Despite the near term headwinds, we are very pleased by the wide range of new cameras introduced by customers during the third quarter, and by our introduction of three new SoC families that will drive the next generation of innovative camera products.”

What a repeat of the first week of November. Start with a lift off on the first trading day of the month, then proceed to line up bull scrotum and introduce “the forces of nature” aka Nana-fucking-Gallagher and her 80 lb mallet.

I was all smiles Tuesday, now weeping in my decisions this week to get greedy and let stuff ride. This just sucks.

It took me a week to bounce back from this last time around. Time to get back to work.

I hope this marks the low.

FML

The correlation from late August up until early November had a .9 correlation coefficient to the 1998 price and time analogue. The 2011 analogue scored quite lower. As of recently though, the 2011 analogue is scoring slightly higher in this late November to mid December time frame.

Here’s a look at this time frame in 2011…

And a look at how we’re setting up now.

While we have some melt-up action in a handful of stocks, we also have some similar deterioration like we saw in late 2011.

It’s a comparison worth observation.

A strong open could equal a good day for this name we’ve been holding for a few weeks now. Here’s a look at the chart, and the profile above…

Box Announces Record Third Quarter Fiscal 2016 Results

Customer base now includes 55% of the Fortune 500 REDWOOD CITY, Calif.–(BUSINESS WIRE)–December 02, 2015–

Box, Inc. (NYSE: BOX), the leading enterprise content management and collaboration platform, today announced financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2016, which ended October 31, 2015. During the quarter, Box added over 4,000 new customers, and added or significantly expanded deployments with leading enterprises like Amgen, Westfield Corporation, Sally Beauty Holdings, Grey Global Group, Southwest Airlines, Nest Labs, and more.

“Enterprises in every industry are moving content to the cloud by investing in modern platforms that accelerate employee productivity and replace legacy systems,” said Aaron Levie, co-founder and CEO of Box. “As our strong revenue growth in Q3 indicates, Box is uniquely positioned to drive this transition. We continue to deliver innovations like Box Governance and Box Platform that differentiate us from competitors and assist our global customers to standardize on Box as their next-generation content platform.”

“In the third quarter, we delivered strong year-over-year revenue growth of 38% and billings growth of 37%,” said Dylan Smith, Box co-founder and CFO. “We continued to make significant progress towards achieving positive free cash flow in the fourth quarter of our next fiscal year.”

Fiscal Third Quarter Financial Highlights

   -- Revenue for the third quarter of fiscal 2016 was a record of $78.7
      million, an increase of 38% from the third quarter of fiscal 2015.

   -- Billings in the third quarter of fiscal 2016 were a record of $89.4
      million, an increase of 37% from the third quarter of fiscal 2015.

   -- Non-GAAP operating loss in the third quarter of fiscal 2016 was $37.9
      million, or 48% of revenue. This compares to non-GAAP operating loss of
      $34.2 million, or 60% of revenue, in the third quarter of fiscal 2015.
      GAAP operating loss in the third quarter of fiscal 2016 was $55.0 million,
      or 70% of revenue. This compares to GAAP operating loss of $44.8 million,
      or 78% of revenue, in the third quarter of fiscal 2015.

   -- Non-GAAP net loss per share attributable to common stockholders, basic
      and diluted, in the third quarter of fiscal 2016 was
      $0.31 on 121.8 million shares outstanding, compared to $2.32 in the third
      quarter of fiscal 2015 on 15.0 million shares outstanding. GAAP net loss
      per share attributable to common stockholders, basic and diluted, in the
      third quarter of fiscal 2016 was $0.45 on 121.8 million shares
      outstanding, compared to $3.40 in the third quarter of fiscal 2015
      on 15.0 million shares outstanding.

   -- Net cash used in operating activities in the third quarter of fiscal 2016
      totaled $17.3 million, compared to $21.7 million in the second quarter of
      fiscal 2016 and $19.6 million in the third quarter of fiscal 2015.

   -- Cash, cash equivalents, marketable securities, and restricted cash were
      $244.0 million as of October 31, 2015, of which $29.1 million was
      restricted.

Business Highlights (through October 31, 2015, unless otherwise noted)

   -- Customer Growth and Momentum:

          -- Added or significantly expanded deployments with leading
             enterprises like Amgen, Westfield Corporation, Sally Beauty
             Holdings, Grey Global Group, Southwest Airlines, Nest Labs, and
             more.

          -- Grew paying customer base to 54,000 businesses, including 55% of
             the Fortune 500.

          -- Increased number of registered users to over 41 million.

          -- Hosted nearly 5,000 attendees, representing thousands of customers,
             prospects, and partners from more than 15 different countries at
             BoxWorks 2015.
   -- Product Innovation:

          -- Launched Box Platform, a new way for Box's customers, third party
             developers, and independent software vendors to build applications
             and digital experiences that leverage Box's world-class content
             management technology.

          -- Released Box Capture, Box's new app for the enterprise that
             securely connects an iOS device's camera to business processes for
             field and mobile workers.

          -- Announced new capabilities to Box Governance, including Legal
             Holds, expanded Information Rights Management, and Device Trust.

          -- Announced support for three new content viewing experiences in Box
             -- HD video, DICOM viewing for medical images like X-rays and MRIs,
             and interactive 3D.

   -- Strategic Partnerships:

          -- Launched new integrations with IBM, including IBM Content
             Navigator and IBM StoredIQ, and introduced upcoming integrations
             with IBM Case Manager and IBM Datacap.

          -- Announced support for native integrations with Adobe, Autodesk and
             Docusign to simplify workflow and accelerate collaboration.

          -- Announced that Box was selected by Microsoft as one of the first
             partners to integrate with Microsoft's InTune mobile security
             solution.

          -- Unveiled Box Enterprise Key Management with support for the new
             Amazon Web Services Key Management Service (KMS) to make customer
             managed encryption key functionality accessible to more customers.

          -- Welcomed new applications to the Box Trust partner program,
             including Microsoft's Adallom, IBM Cloud Enforcer, and Amazon Web
             Services.

Outlook

   -- Q4 FY16 Guidance: Revenue is expected to be in the range of $81 million
      to $82 million, and non-GAAP operating margin is expected to be in the
      range of (43%) to (44%). Weighted average diluted shares outstanding is
      expected to be approximately 123 million.

   -- Full Year FY16 Guidance: Revenue is expected to be in the range of $299
      million to $300 million, raised from previous guidance of $295 million to
      $297 million. Non-GAAP operating margin is expected to be approximately
      (46%), raised from previous guidance of (47%) to (49%). Weighted average
      diluted shares outstanding is expected to be approximately 121 million.

All forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures contained in this section titled “Outlook” exclude estimates for stock-based compensation expense, intangible assets amortization and, as applicable, other special items. While a reconciliation of non-GAAP guidance measures to corresponding GAAP measures is not available on a forward-looking basis, Box has provided a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures in the financial statement tables for its third quarter fiscal 2016 non-GAAP results included in this press release.