The first hit is always on the house.
Joined Aug 2, 2009
1,847 Blog Posts


Last night’s After Hours with Option Addict is worth a watch. I haven’t spoke market talk in quite some time, as I was under the opinion it was totally fucking irrelevant…but yesterday after the bell I made the case for a fast move higher starting this week. In the last few days, I have been getting hit with unsolicited market analysis…or forwarded articles of the doom variety…so I pitched my case for why the market makes it’s fastest move up for the year starting into yesterday’s weakness.

FANG stocks all rallied off support, semiconductors are set to BTFO, and biotech stocks had the looks for a breakout…all of which happened today.

An important note we discussed was that the anxiousness in volatility indicators was not being presented in the market action. Meaning, people were starting to price in downside but market speed has all but deteriorated.

The market weakness you want no part of starts from a fast move up. Til that happens, I’m content to headline with “staying the course” til I the anxious ones are no longer anxious.


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The volatility contraction in the Semiconductor index seems to be setting up for a very big upward directional move.

These stocks are important. They’re early cycle of course, and they are the group that signaled market higher back in early 2016.

The above range signals a 10% move that will happen fairly quickly when triggered. This is why I’ve been stacking these stocks in my portfolio the last couple weeks.

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Strategically, I refuse to buy into the gap and go days we saw on Monday.  Any market setup like that with the crowd relatively ‘engaged’ makes the pain trade + lower.

Now that current prices have knocked out Monday’s range, I’m eager to buy. In essence a wasted week like this can be an opportunity if you end the week with longs getting stopped out and ending the week flat, or with low exposure like they did on Friday.

I still like semiconductors and software stocks. $SMH is setting up for a big move…and the software stocks I mentioned last week are on the 52week high lists this week. I’m interested in $SWKS, $MCHP, $TTD, $FFIV, $EVBG.

More later,


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Thursday’s $NYMO signal was a nice gift. Betting against fear into a weekend has been a decent paying bet for most of the year. However, if you avoided buying low on Thursday or Friday, this is by far one of the most frustrating situations of the summer that I can recall.

I bought a few things at the end of last week, but not everything I wanted. Everything else on my list ripped 3-5% yesterday. With the way we’ve opened up the week, I’m sorta stuck. I feel like chasing stuff here and we revisit last weeks lows. If I don’t chase here, everything trades to the highs without me.

Struggling to find any other good setups, I just sit. I want any pullback I can get in semiconductors and software. I also like $TTD. $SQ, maybe $TWLO or $TWTR?

Got anything here you can’t refuse, that hasn’t already ripped off the lows?

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In these environments, it doesn’t take much to trigger an oversold McClellan. As you know, this is one of my preferred market indicators.

On an intraday basis, it saw -80 today. Watching to see how this closes and stalking SOHU, FFIV, WATT, and WFC. As a theme, I really like software stocks too.

CRM, VEEV, WDAY – I own all three.

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