The volatility contraction in the Semiconductor index seems to be setting up for a very big upward directional move.
These stocks are important. They’re early cycle of course, and they are the group that signaled market higher back in early 2016.
The above range signals a 10% move that will happen fairly quickly when triggered. This is why I’ve been stacking these stocks in my portfolio the last couple weeks.
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does NVDA fall into this category?
NVDA is a constituent of the index
Off topic, but your $TRTC is in a great spot.
Question…how do you manage risk when so many positions are basically setting up the same?
Just eyeballing it, looks like roughly 1/3 of the index constituents are sitting on some kind of support. All worth buying if the index bounces. But it’s all basically the same trade. Risking 1% to each is really 10% towards one trade.
They all breakout at different times. If you catch the breakouts and different times, it enhances the returns by an insane multiplier.
Thanks. Appreciate the insight.
Added to my $GPK position today, and opened $FFIV.
Watching FFIV – if options how far out did you go?
I went with October. I was originally intending for a longer hold, but I’ve been looking at my recent performance and I haven’t had great success managing breakouts when I buy lots of extra months. So I’m going to break it up into 2 trades: (1) initial trade to catch the first move, then (2) sell on a tight leash, and (3) buy the re-test with more time for the sustained breakout. It seems like over-thinking the trade, but I am not satisfied with the results of just buying 6 months out the gate, so I want to see how the other half live. We shall see. This is the first trade where I’m trying it.
Adding XOM long term here. Since the merger, the only time the TTM yield has been higher was a brief two day period in 08/2015.
Also roughly sitting on a messy trendline going back to 2002.
KLAC?
Just a tad lower and looks amazing.
You think RAD has any life down there or is this a drift down to below $2?
I bought some
NVDA don’t fail me now.
CY?
CY looks great here
Hi OA, I was wondering if you had made a decision regarding holding your software stocks with earnings this week?
Does my decision dictate yours? Am I deciding for “us?”
Haha well I might hold onto a little bit of VEEV but you’ve got a better sense than I on possible earnings reactions. I’m not in CRM.
I’ll probably end up selling. As my “hand holding” question shows I’m kind of a pussy when it comes to earnings.
Always the first to admit, z e r o fucking clue how a stock will react to earnings. This is purely a question of willingness to risk.
I like to take risks, most do not.