THE MARKET IS A TURD PIÑATA

This remains one of a few important indicators I am using to determine how stocks resolve this last months price action. The USD/JPY.

As you can see, we’re breaking balance in the indices today.

The USD/JPY broke balance last week, and failed. It popped right back up into its trading range.

Here’s a monthly chart to give you the significance of this price action.

This has been a great smoke screen filter lately. This was the reason I said last week to “Cool off on the longs for a bit. If you are in cash, start buying in about three weeks from now.”

This move lower is not being confirmed by the Yen, just like the move up last week was not being confirmed either.

Something to keep an eye on.

OA

This week’s play is to fade each days price action, up until the end of the world on Wednesday at least.

For example, I stumbled upon a circle jerk of bears last night, each trying to climax over how much we’d open down this morning. I tried to get long NQ futures, but missed my fill. Sucks, because that happened to be the overnight low. Markets opened green, and if you bought a green open, you got cut up here a bit.

If we stay red into the close, we’ll rally tomorrow.

Tonight, I want to be long some USD/JPY, some /NKD, and some /NQ down around here. I am already short /GC at 1132 and change.

I’ll likely book this $BIS we bought on Friday and put on some weeklies in $GOOGL and $NFLX.

What are you up to out there?

Time is passing, and it’s time to really start driving home the fact that you are going to have to come attend our NYC investor conference. We’ve got a prestigious venue, a classy VIP event ready, a few financial celebrities you can rub elbows with, and a high end presentation ready that will give you market road maps, predictions, top ideas, and strategies that will help you maximize your earning potential in the coming years.

We’ve spent a lot of time planning for this, and the material you get from this event is not stuff you can just pick up anywhere. If you missed the conference agenda, here’s a quick look:

• Understanding Market Dynamics – How to gauge speed, correlations,patterns, and direction.
• Past Versus Present – 2014 vs 2015…What Did We Learn?
• Market Rotations – Finding the Next Explosive Move in Stocks
• Trading through Different Market Conditions – A fast and slow portfolio
• Trading for a Living – Here’s How We Did It

That being said, for this week I am offering a free month of After Hours with Option Addict for any ticket purchases made this week. Sign up this week and you get a month of After Hours with Option Addict on me.

Seriously, let’s get this done. See you in the morning.

OA

I feel like we covered a pretty thorough road map in After Hours with Option Addict last night that will carry us for the next month. However, let’s focus on next week and take things one day at a time.

Once rule to live by next week, if you want a sporting chance at making a few bucks is “Buy Red, Sell Green.”

The amount of hype and anxiety leading up into yesterday’s announcement will take a few days to properly digest. As an example, I bought NQ and CL here about 30-45 minutes off the open. If you can get a good spot, you can move your initial stop to breakeven and try and work with the market a bit.

For next week, I am going to find 5-10 favorite longs, and 5-10 favorite shorts for a watchlist. The great thing here is that nearly every asset class is actionable long or short from here. Next week should be fantastic to day trade, just don’t chase.

More later,

OA

What you just saw was exactly what needed to happen. We were up pretty good on the day, and into that strength we saw more breadth stats that have not been seen since 8/8/2011.

In that move, you triggered some big short covering and got longs involved too high.

The $NYMO was as high as 76 (that I saw) and as Fly mentioned, Exodus printed overbought yesterday.

Cool off on the longs for a bit. If you are in cash, start buying in about three weeks from now.

See you in After Hours with Option Addict.

OA

I love this set-up. Think about it, if you didn’t participate at the lows, you’re on the pucker bus. If the market were sitting at its lows, you’d care less about being mostly in cash. However, the higher this goes, the more anxiety takes over.

Again, if we get a little squeezy here, smile and nod. Also, take this into consideration…as I’ve been talking of this for about 2 years now:

• In 1998 (my current analogue), the market had a 3 day nose dive worth 11.5% ($INDU) on August 27th, 28th, 31st (Thursday, Friday, and Grey Monday was 6.9% of the decline).
• In 2015, the market had a 3 day nose dive worth 11.4% on August 20th, 21st, and 24th (Thursday, Friday, and Grey Monday, which was 6.6% of the decline).
• In 1998, we rallied off the lows for 15 days before making a sharp break higher on the 16th day, worth 3.3%. We rejected the following day, consolidated for the next three days, then made a move back down to the lows. THE SIXTEENTH DAY WAS 9/23.
• In 2015, we rallied off the lows for 15 days heading into an important announcement. We’ll see what the outcome happens to be.

Conversely, 1998 triggered a Dow theory sell signal with a similar non-confirmation in the transportation index, similar to the way it has here in 2015. You’ve seen my charts in the recent past about the scary similarities with Oil, Gold, Dollar, Yen, VIX and Emerging Markets.

As I mentioned, the pain trade here is up. Today’s move will pop folks in at awful prices, and will trigger some short covering. Play it at your discretion, but nearly all the models we’ve run in After Hours with Option Addict suggest a move lower a week from now is highly likely.

BTW – Quit looking at my paper motherfucker. Do your own homework.