Thursday, March 16 “I DID IT. I BOUGHT SNAP.”
I booked my $SNAP puts today as it broke through $20 and bet the farm on April and next week calls.
After booking my SNAP puts on 3/16 for just shy of 200%, I started my long SNAP position Thursday near the close of April 22 calls ($.45) and Mar24 21 calls ($.25).
The following day (Friday), I added to both positions Apr 22 calls ($.35) and Mar24 21 calls (.15). On Monday I purchased Mar31 22 calls for $.20. At this point, these trades combined are roughly 10% of my account. 5%, 4%, 2%.
Over the next few days, I booked the 21’s for $2.15. With an average basis of $.17 that was an 1165% return. I WATCHED my Apr 22’s move up as much as 650% and stayed the course. I also sold my Weekly 22’s for $.55, a 175% return.
I caught losses in adding 4 different weekly expiry’s at 1% a pop. Those additions were where I thought we’d find buyers below, as pointed out in my ten day long dialogue of this stock. No dice, all weekly’s turned to dust.
At the moment, the positions that are still workable are my original Apr and Apr28 expiry. I have nothing else planned for this stock other than what I’ve already done.
Feel free to post questions and thoughts as I’m sure you will.
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Had over 400% gain was looking for it to go much higher never did had to sell this morning for a 70% gain, well better than a loss i guess; greed kills
Right there with you. Went ham on weeklies – dust. Going to happen again this week. That said, I sold the first round for 1250% thanks to your trade alert. Locked in gains from the first weeklies, but this is a cumulative loss for me right now. Swing big, miss big.
21/22 monthlies are my largest position outside of common. I’m game unless it breaks 20. The coolest part has been trying to explain the wild P/L fluctuations to my wife, since she doesn’t understand options at all.
The trolls around here lately are just ridiculous. Either take the trade or don’t – I don’t recall anyone putting a gun to their head. In any case, appreciate you sharing the idea, and I appreciate the 1250%.
I came here to say Jeff is a sucker for punishment by further inviting trolls just as things calmed down here. But, explaining daily P/L to your wife?!? That takes the cake. You sir are a brave man.
Lol – well, bad news doesn’t get better over time.
Well, if your net returns are positive, there is the option of not revealing all the up and down details.
She was following the trade. But thanks for the advice.
Yep, trading is not for the faint at heart or the pussy whipped individuals! Be the man of the house or go get a Russian/ Latino wife. I married a Cuban so it could be chicken tonight or lobster, deal with it!
yea i never tell my wife about my losses only my wins especially the big ones she thinks i never lose
http://imgur.com/5tDb9ep
really? you’re going to play it like it was a regular sized position for you?
it’s 2017. post screenshots of your buys and sells
you sell a service for money. how can anyone trust you?
literally fly should remove your service and ban you from here but fly sold us out a long time ago
Huh? His normal position size is 1%. So 10-11% combined is pretty massive.
And how does trust come into this? You shouldn’t care how much someone else is risking or where they got in, you should worry more about how much YOU are risking and where YOU get in. Manage your own trades. Stop trading like a degenerate and then blaming anyone but yourself.
If you need your hand held or constant reassurances of your trades that you have no idea why you’re in but you just jumped in because everyone else was excited about it, you’re not going to last long.
<>
Totally
I think people thought they were going to get rich on this trade…
It was a good learning experience for me and I blame nobody for my losses.
OA, to a fault I play the same stocks over and over. You think you get to know them. HA! Not! With that being said I’m still wanting to trade BIDU. Thoughts here? Are you feeling the 180’s still? Thanks.
favorite way to play financials? other than banks.. I own SYF, DFS..CB..MKL.. any thoughts or ideas.
also curious on thoughts of MLI
Still in the April 22’s as well.
Stocktwits fags are screaming bearish on this now that that FB news hit.
Chart still looks *OK*, gonna come down to time unfortunately. Probably didnt buy enuff of it.
interesting how “bet the farm” equated to an original 5% purchases and 10% in total.
when you say things like “taking a huge position” and “betting the farm” or “going all-in on this new rollver 401k account” that’s where the disconnect occurs. The lurkers and some of the traders literally did bet the farm on this. 20-30-40% account positions. That’s where the anger now most likely resides from.
I’m not saying you have social responsibility, but that your words most likely carry serious weight to a lot of readers. The good and bad of having a solid reputation.
Makes sense. But why doesn’t anyone ask to clarify? Ive said at every occasion asked that I can count the few times I’ve ever taken an option position over 5%. For someone in the 1-2% camp all day everyday, 10% is a fucking monster, no?
That sounds reasonable, but I think if you’re putting more than 10% of your account in OTM options you really have no idea what you’re doing. If this trade went to the highs, a 10% position could have put your entire account up 100% or more. So, a 20, 30 or 40% position has expectations that are just completely detached from reality. You’re either a degenerate gambler, or are one step removed from googling “what is an option.” I’d argue that a blogger does not have an obligation to educate or inform that level of cluelessness. Answer the questions if they are there, but it should be safe to assume some level of domain knowledge.
any takers on snap at 20 not me i rather play the Q’s
Frankly, there is no point writing anything here.
Do it anyway. Why the fuck not?
Just exhausted and so f****d up with this trade. No matter what I write, not going to change it…
do or die time, I picked up May 22 calls for 1.08 https://www.tradingview.com/x/ccrYAkLt/
Nice bounce today, now lets look for the break out squeeze.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/kRUo7w0M/
I have no interest in post mortem at all. Im sure less than truth is displayed here. ‘I’ve got a new yacht in this trade’.
My anger is I’ve been carried down his rat hole before I shoulda seen it comming
A huge ego is always unpleasant to deal with
Less than truth? You fucking cunt. You were there and heard me at the point of execution. “I am starting with double my average size.” I talked through all that shit all the way through.
If you watch 100% of your account go up 600%, and come back to breakeven…no thoughts of doing anything at all? All of this shit is fucking comical man. And you question my integrity when you were sitting right there as I mapped this out BEFOREHAND?
Way to take the high road, chump.
stocktwits 60% bearish today on snap, just in time to support the short squeeze
I wonder. Did Jeff write this post as an offering to the stock gods? Inviting peak trolling so the stock may finally stand up and be counted? Time will tell…
Prediction: SNAP rallies the rest of the week. Developing…
haha. oh don’t we wish…
Not sure about that but I definitely don’t think this trade is dead yet. That said I didn’t buy any calls.
I’m long common with a ridiculous position size and currently down about 4% fwiw. Still not feeling the need to blame Jeff, Jesus, or anyone else.
I blame QCI…
I gave fair warning. I was even asked about that the following day, lol.
Angel of Death jinx bro. You should’ve seen it coming. Do I get credit for the 25% rip off the lows? I hope you made money off that. Only greed would’ve prevented anyone from making a net profit on this. So to blame Jeff is pretty asinine if you ask me.
Out of the money options are designed to go to zero most of the time. If anyone is sitting their with more than 15% in a single trade they were eventually going to lose it all anyways, who cares who they use as a scapegoat for being retarded…
They can either learn the lesson and take responsibility, or continue to be separated from their money while pretending it was someone else that opened the account logged in and made the trade.
Most sensible fucking comment throughout this whole process.
Shorted $GG right as it topped today. Anything parabolic can’t last. Thanks for the good advice and training. Getting better at this.
Couldn’t agree more. Seems like more and more people on this blog and even in AHWOA are blind to anything other than how much they could make. Forget having any sort of plan, they’ll figure that out later when they’re counting the millions they’re going to make after putting a huge portion of their portfolio on a single trade.
So, you’re saying I should go full Dykstra and buy deep ITM calls in the future?
I got scared when I saw someone post that they would be a millionaire on the trade
OA, I have been reading your blog for a bit and it has me interested in learning how to trade options. I know on your trading addicts website you have webinars on how to trade options, since I missed when you were accepting new members I am wondering if I join your after hours webinar if you offer the same options webinars so that I can learn the basic.
Even though you do take a lot of backlash for posting your thoughts I do appreciate the insight. Always nice to have a different angle of thought
Email me and you can try anything I have to offer.
Anything?
Want an AH trial also? No doubt.
I was joshing, you know, Full Metal Jacket.
“what do we get for 10 bucks?”
“everyting you want”
“everything?”
“everyting.”
haha, my bad.
I strongly recommend you join After Hours. It is all option related (generally) and pays for itself quickly.
OA makes calls ($PLUG for example) prior to HUGE moves and I’m still trying to learn exactly how he does it. That being said, I feel like I learn something in each session and he gladly answers questions throughout if people are unclear about reasoning.
If someone mentions anything about options to me my reflex is to tell them about AHWOA every time.
The shape of risk and long term geometric rate of return per trade looks something like this.
https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-PSDUuJmWe9U/WO0wLiglT5I/AAAAAAAABAk/DAYzllx6qZQiIA-6zeMLEnLfqs77SkyiwCLcB/s1600/risk.jpg
The actual percentages at risk vary substantially depending on instrument, edge and reliability of edge.
Damn, OA. You’re Market Wizard material. Seriously.
Brooo…what the fuck does that mean?
Been around this blog for quite a few years and I’ve never seen a trade stir up so much emotion. Losing money is part of the game but one of the hardest to handle. It’s ultimately what separates people from being successful in the markets, you can have more losing trades than winning ones but still make a shit load of money providing you have good trade management. Have a set of rules and follow them….putting over 20% into one trade is one that shouldn;t been in anyone’s rule book.
Regarding the market I covered most of my shorts at the close (AMZN excluded as it’s impossible to win on the short side!) and am now looking for some longs. I like how biotech is setting back up and Oil stocks.
Craziest shit you ever saw? Same here. Apparently, no rules applied here.
I bought biotech today too. Like the $XBI set-up.
yeah it’s wild. This game isn’t for children. If you can’t handle it you should stick to a regular job.
$XBI has pulled back nicely I may pick it up tomorrow.
Perhaps one thing to discuss. People kept saying “don’t blow the exit, don’t blow the exit.” I wasn’t sure exactly what that meant?
I bought and sold common on this trade three time so far. One for a big win. One for a small loss and one for break even. It was still one of my best trades this year. But I sold closer to the last high because people on the blog were getting cocky. That and the QCI black death hex.
And if you chased and bought this stock that’s on you.
As Myiagi would say “you rack disciprine.”
With the donkey trolls out here its no wonder Jeff doesn’t want to answer sincere questions feeling he may be responsible for your position sizing. Man the hell up and take responsibility for your own actions. I to went hard on some weeklies only to see them eviscerated. Blame no one but myself. Our society is always on the lookout to deflect and lay blame – grow up. //rant off
Seriously Jeff. Do not let me ever catch you posting shit like this again.
Thanks for all you do fella.
Late – GJ
Definitely think you were a victim of your own success here OA. After the initial pop, I think the open interest call to put ratio from the March 31 to the April monthly expirations had to be at least 5 to 1. The entire sentiment on this trade shifted immensely. Once I saw that d-bag buy 10,000 March31 calls at 24 strike for .30, I knew this trade was done. As every trader should do, I didn’t take on too much risk on this trade, but I gave myself every opportunity to make a substantial win. Account still intact plus marginal gains, next.
OA, what would you say is the breaking point to sell out of $snap common shares? Or is it more based off of timeframe? Thanks!
What is your entry point?
Bought in the low 19s, then added on at 20 and 21. Avg price is 20.00
Breakeven. No need to lose on it.
picked up NQ here at 5394
Sold another 40% of my LVS just now. What’s the odds of me getting anything but screwed if I hold the rest through earnings on Tuesday?
Im kicking myself for not taking advantage of the AHWOA promotion earlier this year but I simply didnt have the funds or was locked into stocks. Eventually this will happen. That being said when OA posts ALL of his $SNAP moves after taking so much flack, as well as fully disclosing trades/insight on a daily basis for the purpose of educating newbs like me all anyone should do is say thanks. What did I read the other day, the market never took money away from anyone, the person making the trade is the only one to blame for losses. Thanks OA
(MDRX, CORT, KTOS, CERC, KKR, ORBC)
My two cents: After the initial pop and drop, I happened to be in agreement with OA that it was going to bounce. I didn’t have a view on how low it might go, so I trusted OA’s call and jumped in…made a nice return.
I was in full disagreement with OA that it was going to pop a second time – I didn’t see it…but his call was perfect the first time (and more often than not), so I took a portion of the proceeds from the first win and, like many, got crushed.
I’m not mad that he was wrong (reminder: after being right) – this is all gambling, albeit with better odds…but nobody is right 100% of the time and nobody is to blame for my wins and losses except me. It’s your job as investor to gather as much information as possible (which means from multiple sources) and make the best decision with what you’ve got. How OA invests his money (“bets the farm”) should be one data point of information into your equation that ultimately results in your investment decision.
Did it ever occur to any of you that you just aren’t made to be traders? Best thing I ever learned was that my emotional stability, or lack thereof, precluded me from success in trading. I found comfort when I moved to longer-term investment mindset.
Bingo. Great advice.
Magical.
Too bad a lot of people need to blow up once or twice before reality sinks in.
Correct me if I’m wrong , new to the after hours scene, but overall the snap chart is showing the kind of pattern we should be looking for? Just holding common stock at this point and trying to be patient
Funny that it hasn’t occurred to many that this may still be shaping up.
Hah. I made a comment to that effect yesterday. Chart still looks fine to me. It’s time I’m running out of.
$snap gonna pop out of this triangle one way or the other!
That’s what strikes me as odd. If any discipline what so ever had been exercised, no one should have lost much money yet. We haven’t even reached a monthly expiry for God’s sake! If you are pushing any size at all into a weekly, out of the money call option on a high beta IPO, I’m not sure what to tell you. I’ve had one decent weekly in SNAP and two bad ones. And I’ve lost very little because they’re fucking weekly options. Those are restricted to lunch money if you want to stay around for long. My monthlies are the only thing I own of any size at all, acquired at a rest stop on the highway on St. Patrick’s day, and they still look just fine to me. I also still have a small batch for the week after expiry from the day after that horrible sell-off last week, at roughly these prices.
In other news, if you take away the ticker symbol and emotion, the setup looks pretty good right here. If I didn’t already have the amount of exposure I’m comfortable with, I’d buy today.
Also bidding $CUDA and $JNPR.
OA, thoughts on a LULU comeback after their earnings stumble? Positive endorsement out today. Maybe hold off closer to June earnings?
Also, would appreciate your thoughts on ACIA. Seems to be playable for a couple points here and there. Thanks!!
No thoughts.
OA, $CENX is getting clobbered today.
Do you consider this a good opportunity to add to a position?
That’s a money management question, and since those seem to go misinterpreted around these parts, I’ll send that one back to you.
I think you need to make a post with the title “I am become Jeff, destroyer of wealth”
But then I’de be illiterate, you illiterate fuck.
Come on people now…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o4fWN6VvgKQ
OA, are you still in SNAP options or stocks? Or sold out? I’m still in stocks. Thanks.
Were you here yesterday?
No. What did I miss?
Yesterday’s post discussed my position.
Sorry, I should’ve read your blog till the end. Let me know when you got intersted in again. The chart is getting interesting. Thanks.
When the trolling dies down I’ll set up another one. You in After Hours?
No. My day is tipically occupied by low paying long hours work, sadly. ER will be May 10th.