Dow 20,000! Congrats on a milestone month. Seems like it was only a year ago that the headlines were painted with “SELL EVERYTHING.”
Well, this has been one of my best starts to a year in my 20 year career. Not exactly 2014-ish, but a good start nonetheless.
For the year, my analysis is going to consist of the highs and lows of the crowd. I think that will end up being more effective than most anything else. The stuff I am reading lately is really starting to shift optimistic.
We will trade much higher over the course of the year, but the giddy factor should help you sway from risk-on, to risk-less-on.
Into February, I want slightly less exposure. It’s getting crowded out there.
Have a good weekend.
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you the man. Now let’s have a blow off top in XBI please.
All these poor souls chasing throughout the year, and when they get their chance during the election, they don’t buy.
Added to QCOM today. Cya next week.
A year ago this month was scary as hell.
That late Jan move was the most scared I’ve been of this market since 2008.
If you are worried then reduce your position until you can sleep well again
Shit, why didn’t I think of that?
This guy needs to start a service.
Because you are …addicted?
John, I change my position several times a night, yet I still have to get up to pee 🙂
Nabbed some XOM March $85 calls.
SRPT getting a little late afternoon love.
Jeff are you thinking another round of retail buying soon?
oops that wasn’t supposed to be in reply but a new message.
derp to me
Retail rips next week
more room in China names to keep grinding higher?
Who knows. I nailed the low tho.
Watching $CTRP and $YY
Adding to RH now and considering playing with fire in the form of SHLD. Prob not until next week though.
I bought SHLD today
Get out of my head please.
Anyone have access to $SHLD February seasonality going back 10 years or more?
You can pull from yahoo finance’s (tragic, I know) historical data tab. I just did it and got monthly data back to ’04
Looks like Exodus has 13 years worth…by month. March is best (+10.66%), February is 2nd (+8.35%). Both months were up 9 of 13 years.
Yeah my data was pretty close to that. Feb avg return of +7.66%, positive 9 of 13 times.
Curious why the average is off by ~70bps
Maybe a dividend payment or two? Just guessing, though.
my tombstone is going to read “He should have bought more time”
cheers to good months +1
Retail rips next week. Is AAPL retail with its retail “can hold in hand” products? Not exactly like BABA before earnings but has the characteristics of really going nowhere for years, near its 52 week highs but around 10 percent off from its all-time (unlike FANG going into earnings – which was/is at all-time highs) and many “gurus” who got the NAZ completely wrong going into the New Year calling for a January sell-off in technology names are now saying the time has come for Nasdaq to go weak. Also like BABA – its leader seems to be getting along well with the new administration – something that was not believed was going to happen.
When is it time for $ANF?
I’ve been eyeing it too. But for stock rather than option, I’d rather be a little late than too early. Don’t see capitulation yet.
Gonna be awesome to see markets green by end of day. Yields higher, gold barely budged.
It is better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you are a fool than to open it and remove all doubt.
– Mark Twain
Like CASY here.
Gartman truly is a piece of work
Anyone looking at RAD? Cratering today. If retail rips this week could be a nice play. Watching it for now.
the across the board rug pull. hope it doesn’t get us all again like 2014.
Closed out a modest IWM short. Have only few beaten up short term longs like M and QCOM and waiting to see how this month plays out.
BIDU looking interesting here. Will wait til close though.
picked up Mar BIDU calls
Problem with retail over last several months has been that the rip has lasted just a couple days and was followed by a dump (XRT). The only encouraging thing is that prices are falling to the 5 year trend which seems to be a great indicator of upward movement.
Weak Bounce
Had this handpick list selected sometime last week and posted in AH. It was manual grab from about 1/5th of the names listed in the OABOT’s top 400 (with bias towards higher short interest names). Some of the names are testing support or rejecting breakdowns so they deserve another mention.
http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=212&t=GSAT,IKGH,ABEO,ADMS,AFSI,AGIO,ALNY,AMPE,AOBC,APPS,AREX,ASNA,AXDX,AYA,BBG,BGFV,BKE,BLCM,BLL,BOOT,BREW,BSD,BSPM,BWFG,CERS,CHGG,CHUY,CLF,CLH,CNSL,CONN,CPE,CSV,CVGW,CXRX,DEPO,DF,DMRC,DNR,DPRX,EBIX,EBS,FIVE,FNBC,FRAN,GIII,GPRE,GRPN,HASI,HIBB,HLTH,HQCL,ICPT,ITCI,JWN,LE,MDXG,MGPI,MEET,MNKD,NDLS,NEO,NEOS,NPTN,NTLA,NVAX,NWBI,OMER,OPTT,PGNX,PJC,PIR,QDEL,REGI,REX,RENN,RSO,RTRX,RVNC,SAFM,SGEN,SPWH,SPU,SPWR,SRNE,SRPT,SYRG,TCS,TLRD,TYL,UIS,URBN,VEEV,WBMD,WETF,WING,ACIA,AMN,AMSC,ARLX,CIE,CMCM,CPST,FTR,NERV,PCTY,SCMP,XONE&o=sharesfloat&r=101
That SPU is gorgeous but not optionable =(
No way you’d trade options on a six dollar stock that trades like 5k a day, right?
No way. I’m not super familiar with the name, the chart just really stuck out to me when I pulled up his screen.
Some of the stuff you get involved in is too illiquid for my taste, even.
Such as?
Just in case you didn’t know OABOT is the ROBOT(spreadsheet program) built that was inspired by OA’s teaching, not actual stocks (BOT/bought) or endorsed by me or OA.
Sometimes I handpick names that are worth watching and/or have technical setups that look interesting from a list of a few hundred. The liquidity filter I use is not real strict at all so some names have too small of float and/or are too illiquid for some.
I’ll try to refer to it more often as “Neo” or “my spreadsheet filter” or OABOT/Neo just in case anyone is confused by the “OABOT” name.
YRCW, JMEI, YY, LN (though I got involved recently), even some CTRP contracts.
No judgement here, I just wasn’t comfortable with the spreads/liquidity on some of those when you traded them.
None of those are really illiquid…but good to have your own filter I suppose.
JMEI has a total of ~120 contracts outstanding for this month and next.
What do you consider illiquid? Not being difficult, just genuinely curious.
I didn’t trade options on JMEI.
Somebody is scraping the bottom.. INSY, GPRO and YY all green now.
OA you like jblu?
LOVED it at $15 last year. Don’t think too many were too keen on the idea at the time.
Nice r/r here vs 200d; hit some value screens too over the wknd
If the idea is based on a 200 day moving average, I’d pass.
Taking a hit on the brilliant move to buy XOM calls. Was looking at a trend line hold. Just praying this is a fakeout. Lots of negativity on energy so willing to take a zero on these just to see it through.
bought AMBA feb 52’s.
At the risk of tipping the scales to complacency, I will confess to buying July $CHK calls today.
Okay – so where’s the guy who when I told him if 90 percent of all retail traders thought UA at 30 was the buy of a lifetime – pretty much meant for sure it was not a good buy at that level.
Drug co execs meet with prez today. Can Trump be bought off with schmoozing (“your, ah hem, …crowds …were very large”)? Or will he hold fast against high prices?
Watching …might cover IBB short today and join y’all XBI longs.
Covered ..IBB down $4 in pre mkt
Added to LABU off trendline.. with tight stop if it busts.
I’m a genius… until it reverses…. then I’m back to stupid.
All we’ve done is gone full circle in a week. Need ibb to break thru 275 and hold
whats everyone’s opinion on AAPL going into earnings.
Why?
Have a position? Or looking to piggy back one?
meant to reply, but started a new comment.
The Samsung issue was priced in forever ago.
I dont have a position, and I’m likely going to not take one, I am at the top of my preferred limit on positions right now. But, considering the Samsung issue, I wonder how much of an impact on sales it would have for AAPL and was wondering what everyones thoughts were.
Adding to SHLD, JCP, RH. Starting position in VRA. Stalking TEVA.
Today is a great day.
If you’re loading up with retail look at DSW..
Thanks, don’t want to crowd the boat too much. Looks good though, happy hunting.
I set a possible stop a few days ago and possible target and calculated the % return divided by the risk/reward) at the stop minus 1ATR and sorted them:
High Reward/Risk and high % gain at target:
ASNA,JWN,CXRX,AMPE,IKGH,SPWR,DPRX,BBG,ITCI,GRPN,SRPT,NDLS,HQCL,NVAX,ACIA,GIII
Over 400k avg volume filter:ACIA,ASNA,BBG,CXRX,GIII,GRPN,ITCI,JWN,NVAX,SPWR,SRPT
http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&f=sh_avgvol_o400&t=ASNA,JWN,CXRX,AMPE,IKGH,SPWR,DPRX,BBG,ITCI,GRPN,SRPT,NDLS,HQCL,NVAX,ACIA,GIII
Breadth had oversold extremes yesterday and today there are more 4%+ advancers than 4%+ decliners.
Fucking XOM. Got the turn in oil correct but picked the wrong piece of shit. Oh well.
For future reference, you never pick the big Grandpa name in a risk on environment. In this context, it’s lead for so long, it gets sold in order to position into more aggressive things.
This is why you avoid BMY, MRK, an JNJ in times like these?
I buy those into market crashes. Never bother pulling up the tickers in markets like this.
Closed this week’s $SWKS for 700%. Rolled a small portion into $SWN leaps. I’ve now got most of my exposure rolled out to June 2017 – January 2018. And I’m sitting in a decent sized cash position. I am going to go more hands off short term stuff until I see a more obvious opportunity/fear.
But I do have room for 1-2 earnings trades, which I cannot resist.
Jeff, wonder what your thoughts are on financials here? Do you like this dip here?
Banks didn’t confirm the move to highs in the indices. Not sure that’s worth buying.
Jeff today stands out to me in context of something that you once told me…. you think today is the day that’s “supposed to make me feel bearish?”
Particularly with regards to retail?
OA, I know you sold your bitcoin at the top and suggested that the bubble has popped. Hat tip for that, sir. But bitcoin seems to be bottoming around the 900+ dollar area. Could this be a consolidating phase before another leg up?
Would rather short here than buy.