I know most of you tell me to get fucked with my historical analysis. That’s part of the fun in blogging. Oh wait, blogging is fun?
This year has unfolded quite similar to how last election year unfolded. In 2012, markets bottomed about a week after the election on a similar oversold signal. This year, that same oversold signal came last week.
In both years, the prior year (2011 and 2015) were a volatile mess. In each election year, we established a trend. Volatility to start the year. Volatility in the middle of the year, trend higher into October, then come in a bit heading into the election.
Last election year, markets bottomed about a week after the election. In this year, we hit the oversold signal ahead of the election.
I was also asked if my longer term analogue is still playing out. Here’s a quick look:
I used the Dow. Last time I used the RUT. Both show a striking resemblance.
One thing is certain, the last few days reflect money on the sidelines waiting to be deployed. I feel any dips you get after the election ought to be bought heading into year end.
I’m looking forward to putting this behind us to start planning for year end, as well as 2017.
Off to cast a vote. Will be out for the rest of the week.
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If the Bank Sponsored Candidate wins it’s GDP 0 – 1%, no rate hikes, pump money into the system, party continues.
The banksters hate the non-traditional candidate and with a win we could see a Brexit dip, but will it be bought?
Saw a few articles about people parking their entire IRA’s in cash/ TIPS bc they thought there was risk of 10-20% correction if Trump was elected (and not getting back into the market until the coast was clear). Stocktwits is humming w ppl shorting this bounce.
It’s the old buy high and sell low market strategy. But without folks like this I wouldn’t be able to buy the dips…
FB +3.7% and counting…
Yeh if I wasn’t so loaded long I would’ve bought into the FB post earnings crash.
If I wasn’t already up to my snout in FB I would have bought more. I’ll just have to seek comfort in my newfound GOOGL gains.
lol
need. more. dry. powder
or not.
OA – Would you say UNG is aversion?
I am averted and sold 7.00 Dec puts. If Clinton win doesn’t push UNG to 7.25, I’m exiting the trade.
New post I made just now, in Barry’s Basement
About voting machines and wars
http://ibankcoin.com/barrysbasement/2016/11/08/about-voting-machines-and-wars/
I’m buying the end of the world on Wed….
Not nearly enough dry powder for me but I will be definitely eyeing stuff by Thurs. Gonna let tomorrow play out.
On Brexit it was the second trade day that the market bottomed.
I’m drooling on some ChiCom stock opportunities.
If ur playing this drop for an immediate bounce just cuz Brexit was, that’s lunacy
I got the immediate bounce.
what would really mess w ppls heads was if tomorrow was green or only slightly red
Top 3?
I’ve been thinking the same on Chicom. BIDU, SOHU, NTES?
I made a new post in Barry’s Basement
If he wins, I’ll give him a chance
http://ibankcoin.com/barrysbasement/2016/11/09/if-he-wins-ill-give-him-a-chance/
the entire crash was retraced back in time for open. Jeff was technically right. Only the pajama bears cashed in on shorting.
Yeh but underlying stocks getting crushed.
Aside from bios
so far
in: financials, biotechs, defense, basic materials
out: solar, tech (some pockets of green, though)
$TWTR strong, I’m guessing because of all the traffic on it from last night.
Infrastructure stocks we highlighted in the boot camp fucking exploded higher off the open.
yup – and that was a priority for both candidates
watching last night – interview with Guiliani – they were talking about security and then he mentioned that he was into cybersecurity. He was always a physical security/law enforcement type guy, so the cybersecurity comment was interesting
Exited BIDU, HMSY on open and bought Dec IWM calls w proceeds. Still long WFC, COP, short VXX
Sold 1/3 WFC. Might sell another 1/3 around close
Glad I didn’t buy back into TSLA. Not a good day for solar in general.
no, alternative and green technologies are not feeling love
added to my next week GLD 121 puts near the open.
People buying the Mary Jane stocks are out of their gourds.
Fade all of that, big time. You think a GOP administration is going to sit idly by at a federal level now?
It’s been profitable so far. Projecting rigid party principles onto this administration could prove hazardous.
Disagree. These will shoot up short term, but they are all dust in 2 years. Many of them are complete shit anyway, if you’re holding long term, you’ll be holding the bag.
Oh, understood. My “long term” time frame on these garbage stocks is 6-9 months.
Closed my $IWM weeklies +350%. Open to re-entering, perhaps quickly, but I am going to play short term positions nimbly here as I expect the market is going to be at least temporarily as schizophrenic as was the President Elect on the Campaign Trail.
Wish you could go out further than 2017 on $TAN calls.
OA. Does the trend lines/investor behavior suggest we wait and buy the next dip or was the Trump Slump it for a while?
so looking out at the market – it seems that we are faced with disbelief from participants. Not sure where that fits on the sentiment chart. Also, it looks like the action from from last night have caused unexpected reactions (gold, dollar, bonds, commodities).
Is this going to lead to FOMO or to meandering?
I feel like I should be doing something, but I’m paralyzed. Lol.
yeah, glad I dipped a toe last week, wish I had dipped a leg
Completely clueless on the next step. Did sell LABU today for 37.25 from 25.50 in a few days. Lamenting missing X @ 16 and CLFford @ 5 but hindsight…. So happy last night because I could finally get rid of my shorts at a decent level and got nothing in the morning.
I am now paralyzed as well. Just in complete disbelief at what I am seeing. Don’t want to chase, don’t want to freak out either.
Just staying the course for the moment.
We are melting up, in a hardcore aversion, or about to violently swing the pendulum the other way. Can’t decide yet…
Guess I was a genius for buying or adding to FPRX, NTES, and YRD on Monday. Nah, just one lucky bastard. No idea where we go from here. One errant comment from new guys can send the market into a tailspin.
I continue to be a long term bullish investor in the market myself. I certainly no reason to change that now. Although I didn’t vote for Trump, he is president of us all now. I will hope for him and/or the people he surrounds himself with to try to do something constructive for our country and its economy, until and unless I see clear evidence that they won’t.
utilities and consumer goods lagging here as well
When was the last time we had a 3% day in the Russell?
OA – did you have a target on X? I have it from $20 and trying to decide if I should bank profits.
SBNY .. up 20 points in two days? WTF…
So frustrating. I was debating between 2 strikes right after earnings, and said, “Eh, come back to it next week. A little regional bank isn’t going anywhere and you’ve got a few positions to manage right now.” Onto the next one. Just means my eye caught a good set up, right?
making cabs great again !!!!!
lots of fun. Bot an APPL 109 call yolo may be wrong on this one, but there you go.
Also sold my GLD puts for a 2.5-bagger
I am wondering if I should swap my tech stocks for industrials– like the ETF named VIS. It’s the Trump infrastructure trade that looks like it will do great. Doing well today, while the FANG trade is sucking because the tech giants supported Hillary and because Trump has it in for AMZN’s Bezos because Bezos’s WA post didn’t Trump him with their news coverage. Trump is supposedly going to slap Bezos with anti-trust action, as Fly has reported on his blog that I still am banned from commenting on. Also, other problems are anticipated for e-commerce with Trump’s presidency coming up.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/heres-trump-presidency-means-e-164100221.html
“didn’t flatter Trump with their news coverage” I meant to type.
Here is an interesting research report:
Donald Trump as US President – the economic and financial implications
http://danskeresearch.danskebank.com/link/USelectionTrump091116/$file/USelection_Trump_091116.pdf
Anyone in XME?
I get why Fly banned you….your’re a spaz
Thanks. I know I am doing well and saying good things when I get ad hominem attacks, because the commenter can’t find any way to argue with the substance of what I actually said.
But it is just as well Fly banned me from his board, because, given the current content of it, there’s no point in me being there.
Frog, as you know, I am not a fan of your partisan bias. But now that the guy is in office, let’s keep him from abusing power – as his campaign rhetoric suggested he may be inclined to do. (Had Hillary won, I would have asked that we work to keep her warmongering sadism in check.) Both candidates were terrible, but you would have had more credibility in your Trump attacks had you acknowledged that Hillary was a neocon warmongering tool. Most people supporting Trump knew that they were choosing the lesser of two evils; but not acknowledging Hillary’s sickness just hardens the Trumpites. Anyway, kudos for caring enough to piss in the wind here on ibc.
Hi, Purdy
I was for Bernie before Hillary won the Dem nomination. You maybe didn’t see that comment, that I made in response to your comment on my blog– where I told you that if Hillary won, if she wanted to start any unnecessary wars, I would be out there demonstrating against them, and I would have wanted you to join me.
I never said I agreed with Hillary on everything, and I don’t. I just agree with her on more things than I agree with Trump on. And I was also thinking that Bernie would have led the movement and demonstrations to let Hillary know that we didn’t want her to act like a neocon.
I am aware that there is no way I could have converted a Trump voter to a Hillary voter, no matter what I said or did. All I could do would be to let people know that there was another point of view. And maybe you and one or two other people, noticed that a liberal can also be a human being like you, and not some creature from hell or the black lagoon.
Thanks for the kudos. It’s good to talk with you, Purdy.
CMG blasted off wo me urgh.
Sold other half of WFC. Not sure what to buy here
So I bought at close Wednesday and sell on open Thursday.
Rookie day trader move for a few scheckels.
thinking about XOP calls. Stunned how much further financials have gone.
if you weren’t positioned prior, you are pretty much sidelined.
DRYS up yuuuuge
FCX damn
tried to add to my AAPL 109s this morning but apparently I committed a good faith violation, so now I am in trading limbo for the day…
bot VC.. nice daily and weekly chart.. great profile.
Closed $grub puts just under 400%. Would consider reload in the $39 range
kicking myself for selling my GLD puts – got the trade right, but sold too early – could have really made a killing on that one…
While I understand that OA is out Wed/Thurs/Fri, and this post is an epic mic drop and he should just leave it up forever, it’s killing me to see that $IWM sell every time I stop in. That 350% is now closer to 900%. Damn trading plans and adhering to them!
I sold more than a handful of GLD 121 puts expiring this week for just under $2.00 last week…..I know the feeling
FLY’s portfolio, gold, oil, guns, silicone valley, all dead.
AMZN, see you in the 600’s
Plan around GDP >4% in the next two years, it will be amazing times.
bot Amba this morning. Probably kiss of death for this stock. We have a checkered history.
Hope somebody followed me into VC at the end of last week. Up 9% this morning.. for some unknown reason. I’ll take lucky over good.
BAC has entered into that 2008 volume pocket. not sure what to make of it given it has been on a straight up rise, but it is definitely above any level it has been for 8 years.
Starting to wonder if we’re pricing in all of the good possibilities of a Trump presidency and none of the bad. I don’t have a ton of November paper coming up this week (I’ve mostly been buying December and January), but I’m going to go tight leash with what’s left.
it is a rotation based on strong dollar and likely protectionist policies We will have to see.
Russell just exceeded it’s all time high
TLT is bouncing right now
Will be interesting to see how this market adjusts heading into the week and will be glad to get OAs take on the market and these rotations.