On Monday, the Russell Cash Index registered an Oversold signal according to my own OB/OS indicator. Today marks the third day of this reading.
This is not to be confused with the $NYMO, which is also signaling OS today at -75 here intraday.
My indicator is built on three different time frames, looking to find those longer term action points where all time frames hit OS simultaneously. The RUT has only registered this signal two other times in the last 5 years. One on 8/25, which is a day I refer back to often as a entry point I used last year. The other was on 11/13 after the Obama reelect, and in front of Fiscal Cliff. That particular signal went OS for three straight days as well.
Transports holding up well diverging from overall tape. $cpc only higher a handful of times in the last five years .Russell rsi terribly
Oversold . I say 1160 is the floor on RUT
Lets rip like 1998 style
I couldn’t help it and bought more VXX Jan puts. Also some COP. Let’s do this.
Out of curiosity, how did you arrive at choosing COP as your play?
Thanks
Oil oversold and looking to add bluechips for this quarter. im leaning towards fins and energy.
Sold $MJNA today at $0.197. Bought for $0.035.
That was my first penny stock purchase. Catnip!
Still holding $TRTC and $CVSI.
OA,
I really want to read your conclusions from poll results, especially considering unusual options you offered.
From what I see, people who raising cash are selling to the ones who going long, with quarter of respondents short or undecided. Am I looking at this thing wrong? Whats your take?
Want to see vix have a reversal candle
Shooting star or outside day
It’s all about the election.
What about it? You really think one candidate over another will have an effect on markets?
We pulled back when the FBI letter was released last week. Everyone was sure of a Clinton win, but now not so sure. Odds are still greatly in her favor though.
A candidate that may challenge the election if Hillary wins …or the uncertainty of Trump shaking up the established winners if he wins.
Lots of risk there. On the other hand, lots of fuel on the sidelines.
Agree. At least many seem to be hedging here unlike before the Brexit vote.
It’s 1998……Buy’em all.
So, you’re ignoring the series of higher-highs and lower-lows to come to that conclusion?
* higher-lows
OA Did you ever grab $CARA?
Jeff, looking for oversold large cap names for a swing trade. Thoughts on INTC, JNJ and MMM?
Long next week’s $IWM calls here
Which strike? I almost picked those up but took a pass bc of the IV
I went $118.
ah k gl. just picked up TNA
Market One Year Performance
DJI ……+1%
S&P…….-.0%
NAS…….-.2
FB on tap tonight.
Hope you sold FB before earnings.
My last sale was posted here. It was massive.
Thought you were gung-ho into earnings?
I had an oversized 8% position that I trimmed down to 1% after the last spurt so yes, I was long into earnings – (from $85).
I know I’m going to be kicking myself later that I didn’t buy AMZN/BABA here.
You don’t want to be long anything. Doom is coming
When is FSLR earning? I thought today….
70-80% chance Clinton wins and we head back to new highs. 20-30% chance Trump wins and we get a pullback. Play the odds folks. I’m a buyer here.
Go ahead and post your buys, that’s what the forum is all about.
Licking my balls after getting a 6K kick.
Figured they would beat but was concerned about the forecast for the next quarter. I lost.
Trying to stay positive, RUSS had a good day.
Sorry, I was talking about FIT
Down to just a couple of positions. What is compelling to buy?
@OA no love for my Twitter question to you? 🙁
How rare is a fourth day of oversold? Cuz looks like we are headed there
I have to confess bros, I’m feeling a bit of pain here.
Found this quote on another blog; it was referencing gold, but applicable in any market.
We need fools on the other side of reality in order to trade against them. They are the fuel that makes markets move.
NTES..bouncing off 5 year trendline…again.
Wow. Fslr. Adios
I bot some GLD Nov 121 puts this morning.
Also made a first allocation of my 401K cash into HBSGX – limited funds in the plan, so went with the small caps – about 10% of portfolio for now It doesn’t feel like the best move, but I figured if it’s wrong, it isn’t a huge %
So much pain in individual stocks, don’t know how the market is actually flat
Holding WFC COP BIDU HMSY and VXX puts.
OA, I understand you are tired of being asked about FSLR, still serious question I like to ask. Do you still believe in the company’s future? Great chance to pick up? or Time to give up? Double down? Appreciate your thought as a great trader. ( no sarcasm )
I made some calls today…there’s a meeting in mid-November that will be an event. I’m not too certain on if its good/bad…but gut saying to be worried a bit. Some guys are saying they’ll only made $1 in 2017, and consensus is $2.
I’ve become desensitized at this point. I just assume any news coming out is bad news. The leaps I thought were a deal 6 months ago are pretty much out of the question now without some major announcement or some serious takeover chatter.
Plan was to buy slightly in the money, then sell OTM weeklies late in the week for a bit of premium while the stock floundered.
Past two earnings have completely destroyed what was shaping up to be a pretty constructive bottoming process into a personal house of pain. Setups were there and ready to fly higher, company just couldn’t deliver the goods.
Probably should have just played it with stock instead of trying to hit a home run with options (can’t say I didn’t give myself enough time though!).
Thanks OA. I’ve been holding FSLR years, and thinking about time to really decide next step. I remember years ago I took a big loss to get out YGE finaly, then stock kept going down, made me feel better. I still like to believe solar’s future, still if it can not make money no point to own. Curious to hear mid-Nov’s event.
This shit is going under $10
bot next week baba
was just looking myself which strike?
The 98 strikes for 2.45
Hey OA, I have a question for you, would love your opinion. I trade volatility a lot, my main trade actually either in the vix futures or those crappy vix etf products or options.
I can’t remember the last time I saw this creep which the vix is up 35% over the last 10 days (25% in the futures market) but the S&P is only down 2% over the same time period. I guess an obvious explanation is hedging the election while not selling he underlying. Do yo have any insight/opinion about this? You made a great comment several months ago about a heavy tick day but very little price break leading to a rally which was dead on, I was wondering if you had any reaction to this VIX/S&P divergence. The VIX never moves with a 1 to 1 correlation with the S&P but this seems unusual. Thanks in advance.
Collapse coming
Similar to VIX pre-brexit in June, no?
Seems like event hedging. The correlation usually comes with market declines, but a rise in IV can come without direction too, as demand for the product rises in anticipation of future volatility. Brexit is the best example recently.
$PACB makes the devil’s print. I’m going to wait for 40 more cents and add at $6.25 or so
Rolled some $MJNA into $CARA. Really wanted to add to my $TWLO shares but I think I have to get through earnings.
$TWLO wool beat earnings / expectations but stock will tank. Just look at the rest of the sector. It’s not about earnings anymore. It’s a valuation reset. Market trapped a bunch of longs when everyone was calling for all time highs a month ago.
TWLO lock-up expires end of this month of beginning of december. May be less of an issue now with the secondaries they have been offering up, but keep that in mind
Oh shit. We all know what happened there. Crash then mother of all rallies
The momo stocks will gather again for the after hours crew!
Until then curled up in the fetal position. $fslr ouch!
Haha. Momo in a world of pain
Everything holding up well but couple days early on the VXX puts
Decided to crawl out of the fetal position for a min and bought some LABU. This has been a profitable spot for me and I sold the last two pieces at 36 and 41.
The past few weeks have been an abomination. Hope everyone has fared better. May never eat another burrito again.
Looks like many momo names might not stop at zero.
Es 2080?
Another fail for twlo
Impressive close. 4th day oversold?
No such thing even you are dealing with valuation resets
No such thing as oversold? Have you tested the results?
Indicators on an uptick today, coming out of OS.
Your Satan stock crushed earnings it seems. Bottom. Is in.
Lol, naturally.
Letsseehere – FIT, GPRO, TWTR, TWLO or moar FB?
Short all
Still undecided on the length of this rally coming but the oil stocks will lead along with financials.
VIX futures in backwardation right now. This has a levitating effect on VXX. I would not short it until it gets back to contango again.
Yeh I fucked up by not factoring this in enough and starting my positions early this wk
A big company will announce big layoffs on Monday.
So yo are no more buyer of FB?
Sorry, that was the question to MSGT.
I am a buyer of FB because I noticed Zuck told it like it is, guiding lower in the next quarter.
Compare that with FIT GPRO TGT UA etc..guiding too high and making excuses, they get blown out. If you read some of these PR earnings releases they are hilarious.
I want AMZN lower, they make no profit, spending all their money on shipping returns and rocket launches. I see high school dropouts driving big white Amazon vans in the hood talking on their phones, drag assing around delivering packages earning $10/hr.
<600 can happen.
AMZN is baffling to me. The sheer volume must do something… right??? But I do love the company and would love it lower for the IRA. The same account I had an order in for 475 and it hit 480.
UA on the other hand I am worried about. The clothes are still selling and the brand is starting to catch on in Europe but the stock could drop in half and still be more expensive than NKE.
UA blames Sports Authority. The dog ate the homework. But UA also gets chatted up a bit on Twits, then it becomes a darling of momo players. Then watch out below when all of these expectations don’t pan out. So now they have a shoe, a smartphone app and a partnership with Kohl’s of all places, that’s going to change everything, right?
So I put this right up there with TGT’s 20M bathrooms and small, intimate, urban stores.
Fidelity algo ranks UA at 1.9, TGT at 7.5 and FB at 3.5.
I’m still waiting for TGT to make their bathrooms pig-friendly.
Thank you. I live in Seattle surrounded by Amazonians, which we call them. They have been building new buildings like crazy, employing huge number of office people. The way I see/feel is they keep growing/never stop. At least they start making some money. I would say never under estimate Jeff B’s vision. Then,I do not know about Mr Market, so… I sold AMZN back 400s, then never bought back. I like to buy more FB though.
bot YRD.
That GPRO reversal is pretty amazing.
Bought GOOGL. Yeah, I suck.
$TWLO looks good.
Seriously? Didn’t it just reverse down 6% intraday?