If you will, analyze this chart for me.
If you are in, where are wrong?
Where should a stop be placed?
What happens next in this sequence? If it does, what’s the target price?
I’m traveling tomorrow, FYI. Curious to read your responses.
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1 bar trailing stop buy enter wherever your risk tolerance is – could be market open or low of yesterday
No stops, too many eyes. Set an alert for 55-56 range and take it from there.
+1 my stop is below that reaction low at 51.
Stop below $57.
Settles to $58 in very short term.
If it breaks out, it could run to $72.
Also like AMBA, FIT and MBLY.
haha, i’m here for the nicolas googly eye
Volatility and volume down trending. Needs to base a while longer stay away for now
That’s what happens in a triangle pattern like this. All part of the experience.
TWLO having an inside bar today. If it stays that way today and breaks past 55 tomorrow can see buying the October calls for a move back to 60. Stop out if the stock breaks 53.80
Just how I am seeing it
Good follow up, agreud.
Very nice chart that’s 100% equivocal.
Needs to break 61 on much better volume to long. Stop at 56.
If breaks to the downside would need to go past 57 on decent volume to be convincing. Stop at 60.
Might make a nice straddle play, but even then it’s not hugely convincing.
I’d position size for a $7.00 stop. Assuming my eyes read the chart accurately
You’d take 7 in the rear from here? Wow.
risk 7 to lose 10
+1
Perhaps I’m not saying this correctly. If I had bought the close I’d buy enough shares such that I’d be stopped out if the price went down $7.00. I would risk only 1/2% of capital.
I already paid for risk management in the premium. I can’t buy any more, but I sure want to.
56 stop and go long again in low 50’s if it gets there. But more interested in seeing volume and daily range stay subdued unless we are breaking up and out. Looking for 70-75+.
why go long again if it suggests direction down?
Charts are meaningless with companies that are -17% Net profit margin.
Trades long or short, are based on herd mentality.
Did you get filled in TSLA?
I did not pull the trigger, TSLA acted shitty toward the close. After the downgrade I’m looking at a discount here, possibly in the 150-160 area.
Agree. The planned cash raise is sidelines.
The next person that fucking says this gets punched in the throat.
Yes, I know. It was a herd-banging idea I had from the $30’s. For fucks sake let’s just let it play out.
My comment does not apply to you, you don’t do herd trading. When was the last time I ever second guessed your trades?
I know, I kid, but someone reminds me of this daily.
Respekt
I don’t believe in herds except in sentiment stocks like TSLA. I believe in humming computers that target certain prices that are scribed by charts.
if volume and speed is fast and furious, no. You wouldnt take a stab at those levels?
TWLO will be at 50 or 70 within a month.
I’ll say 2.5 weeks. $75.
I’m completely unqualified, so this is an opinion from a layman..
If you are long the stock after Sept. 2th, you are wrong below 56.60
If you bought put options and cannot make a profit below 56.60 you are wrong.
If you bought calls and cannot make a profit above 58 you are wrong.
I imagine the possibility in the next week the stock could move up and repeat the 59 to 60 trading range it had from 10:30 AM Sept 6th to 10:30 AM Sept 7th
I took a quick look at today’s closing prices for options- next week and the week after.
I would not buy them because they seem expensive. Even the ones for tomorrow have significant premium and spreads. On my screen tomorrow’s 58 calls went out .40 bid .75 ask with 196 traded on 144 open interest. That feels like waking up in the middle of the night wide awake.
Then again, I know nothing…
Look at APIC. Lucky fucks.
I can only be wrong if my premium disappears. SET RISK.
Defined risk for you MBA traders. Lol.
It will break hard one way or the other soon, so pick a side and ride or die…I expect a false breakdown and then the rocket ship higher, but should the broader market decide to get realistic, this could go back to 30s quickly as part of a bigger slide.
I’m waiting for the head fake to get back in
(I have a few calls left but they expire Friday, so nothing really forward-looking)…if it takes off higher first, will have to decide whether or not to chase.
Charts aside, keep in mind this is a company that isn’t going to see profits for a while…some day that will actually matter to the valuation.
Again, this company is gayer than a sack of dicks. We know.
Any News on CVI?
no footing for markets here between DPRK and fed speak….
But could see a decent recovery from here, but I don’t expect much speed going up.
I will take a dip. Haven’t seen more than a 1% for a while, until we do, will assume it’s not today.
We have a shot at a 1% spx day today
picked up some more AAPL 106 calls for .10
I tried buying Green Day convert tickets today, but the venue sold out in under 7 minutes….
added 106 at .06
I think these are going to be toast…
yup……worth a shot
we had tons of company…..around 100,000 were bought at 106 and 70,000 at 107…..and a bunch up to the 111 strike…in the last two days
This is why position size is key – definitely not something to bet the farm on
nickle options…….position size…check…but I do love it when nickle options pay out
Moves up in 6 buck legs. Next to 65 or so. In this low volatility market about 80% of my trades are triangle/wedge formations. My success rate over the last two months has been ridiculous. Easy to find entry point and low risk/high reward. Props to OA.
September paper definitely in grind phase.
We miss your Special Friend on days like today OA. I made a post earlier using his former Screen nane and it got moderated!
Yes, some beechoo play-by-play…
I bought more calls this morning on the dip (3 weeks to 1 month). If it closes below today’s low I’d consider it broken and heading lower.
MNST puts expire today, am close to breakeven. Taking a chance till the close
1240 level on the Russell is worth watching
1240 level was worth watching and then waving goodbye to…lol
My chart tells me breakout above $66.49 on volume, target $80. Of course, that chart lies to me a lot…
Bought solid chunk of MEMP
If oil stabilizes, some crazy upside on this one
I’m getting murdered today…
+1 not a good day.
unless you believe the market direction has changed, take it as a buying op.
I’d highly suggest getting out if you’re a swing trader. When the market dives on Friday, it tends to collapse more on Monday.
I’m still bullish and most my stuff falls into the category of “it sucks a fat dick, but it’s not broken.”
Lots of gains this year so I’m going to sit on this for a while. So not selling. Haven’t bought anything yet either
Good luck with that.
You have a stop on UVXY?
Yes, sudden surprise plunge day today. Whether it lasts more than a day is the $50,000 question.
Got whalloped today. Stopped out of TLT, LN longs. Decided to give TWLO some rope tho and still in.
Good day to be on a plane.
You guys couldn’t handle bchu! Miss yall!!
Newish poster “roundwego” seems to be filling the void on fly’s blogs for those who need their chubby fix
omg, the twlo emails oa must be fielding right now
and the AAPL call over 108
hope y’all bot the dip
IMO this is the place to buy if you have cash. Unfortunately I am fully invested.
What really honks my gourd is i wanted to short other stuff 2 days ago. Felt heavy. But didnt and jumped on this aapl hot mess. Somebody shoot me
30% day in the VIX – it is over 16 now – will want to see that tamped down next week
A valuable lesson in following “rules”. Went from huge gains in options to blah. If I can provide anything productive BABA just retraced to the point of breakout. Otherwise it all looks like shit for the moment.
Same. Had some big gain in some option positions that have turned to small losses today.
I think the market has priced an interest rate increase back in the mix and living with the idea of QE-Europe ending – will be interesting to see if this is just a tantrum – last time market the VIX jumped like this was August of last year, but the market then was not the market we currently have. Monday will be interesting to say the least
$DUST long saved my bacon today. Huge hat tip to OA…would not have been stalking the gold miners absent his thoughts. Will sell the position today.
Where’s the PPT? Is the media narrative about to be redirected?
CLF looks decent here too. So does SOHU. Deer in headlights feeling… buy because I want to sell or sell to lock in dwindling profits. The more you know
Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz
At the close, RSI(5) = 2.8. That’s at least a 5 year low
Been patient for months waiting for this pre-xmas dump.
Another 2 days like this for a buyable dip.
What is your shopping list? Thanks.
I want TSLA and FB deeply discounted and the burritos are always on the radar.
Tencent.
Thanks! I am looking to add to my long term hold GE BX AAPL and FB.
If you look at AAPL’s income statement, you might change your mind about buying.
Start thinking China.
I’m still long VWO with a decent basis now, but can’t get myself to buy the burritos. And I once bought the windmilled bearded APWR and made bank way back when.
What’s 2nd place to tencent?
If you own VWO you own a huge Chinese Burrito with a dash of Central and South American hot sauce and a slice of Russia/India. Look at the holdings.
Thanks MSGT. I sold out BABA last week. It’s not China but how about Tata, do you like?
Hat tip to Grandpa for harping on playing both sides even when things are feeling good. Puts are saving me, as is the extra time on my calls. Only longs to manage for next week’s expiry are $KMI and $TWLO.
I heard a snippet on the radio that the short position in the $VIX as of yesterday’s close was at historical highs. They are having a worse day than me.
Nice timing on the trotting out of Acampora by CNBS..
Lots of new names here.. not sure what that means.
Wait for Monday gap down and continued sell off. I think we buy Tuesday/Wednesday, gents.
Same was said after Brexit right? But rally happened immediately
The brexit selloff bottomed on Monday after intense selling Friday/Monday. I’m looking to buy Tuesday/Wednesday.
I’d compare this sell-off to the one last year around this time. In that case, the market started to tank on Thursday, tanked harder on Friday, then the bottom dropped out on Monday. Tuesday, the market opened much higher, then sold off all day.
I’m short via UVXY, and plan on holding all the way through the close on Monday. Strongly considering holding it longer term.
This ones different. The volatility funds had to sell like 14b in equities today. They’re why the market tanked. $USMV
So does that mean something about what to expect next week?
All these other funds piled on late today, anticipating a gap down Monday.
Gotta love the On Demand feature in ToS. Will be useful to back test the current scenario based on last year’s collapse.
Didn’t know about the $USMV ETF, thanks for that.
OA, do you think pain trade is a gap up Monday? That would be so devious and awesome for my TWLO and DATA.
http://jlfmi.tumblr.com/post/149766605820/stock-market-levitation-hits-historic-heights
Did sethster just show up on a big down day? What are the odds? Lol
I’ve been here all along. I took the CMG trade last week, and have been taking many long positions.
The market goes up and down. Down days like Friday don’t happen often, but when they do, they are the biggest paydays for those willing to take the risk,
Yes, Monday will gap lower, and I am positioned for it. I have some UVXY stock as well as some SPY weekly puts. I’ve been studying the charts from the collapse last fall, and it looks like the market opened down huge and rallied after the first 5 minute bar. If we open 20+ down on the S&P, I will be closing my shorts. If it’s less than 20 down, I will be holding the positions.
I don’t see any way that the market opens higher.
I’ve decided to take my profits rather than being an idiot. The easy money has been made from Friday to this morning. Now I’m looking to get long via SVXY calls over the next few days.
I switched to long. Long XIV. SVXY options are too wide for me. Up nicely in XIV though.
I’m trusting this bottom for for the next few days. Then I’ll re-evaluate.
Jeff, what time frame are you and others usually talking about when you talk about “the pain trade?” I am guessing you are talking about a time frame longer than just the first 5 or 10 minutes after market open on a particular day?
Usually in the moment. Next day or so.
Pain trade over the next day or so – probably a little longer – would arguably be destroying shorts who will try and short weakness and strength and anything in between in hopes of catching a “flash crash open” like last August. McClellan is already almost -150 which historically means at this stage – it is better keeping powder to play for a good intraday bounce that could then last for a little bit rather than loading up on shorts.
Or – another way to put it – the ultimate pain trade for shorts would be for the market to open a little lower tomorrow and then slowly run up all day – retracing about a 1/3 to a 1/2 of the sell-off and shorts keep adding to their shorts all day long and then even more so at the end of the day hoping for a bad Tuesday open. Then the bad Tuesday open doesn’t happen.
Father, did I miss the dip already?
Yep. Again
Gap down and rally and grind – way to put latecomers Friday into a vise
AAPL benefiting immensely from Samsungs unfortunate explosions
couldn’t buy it today cause TOS has been tko’d all day. what a POS.
In LT acct, swapped out of EXAS and NTES and bot LN and CYNO shares.
Still holding Sept calls…way too many.
Bot TWTR in margin account — all in
damn. conviction trade. you’re apple call was one day late.
If this was the one dip to let people in on the rally, that is just pure evil.
Agreed lol
Hahaha true.
YRD any one have a feel for this one down here? working today…thx.
Bought $MON $110 calls expiring Friday.
Yup – as mentioned above – pain trade in effect. Have BAC calls from much earlier – looks like it has a good chance in the next few days to try a third time in a few weeks to break out above 16.20’s and third time might be the charm.
Let people back in and then stomp them again? I bought FIZZ which is over-flowing and WBMD because it didn’t break support on Friday. Let’s see what happens around the close.
I am still expecting asshattery to abound this week – if we are back on pain trades, then the knife will cut both ways
I have enough low risk positions on to wait a day or so. High volatility is always a crapshoot for me.