We’re approaching the 1 year anniversary of this Barron’s cover that printed last year. I remember being in an airport store and took a pic with my camera. Not long after I made this one of my biggest LT positions coming into the year.
I’ve been talking up this earnings announcement over the last few weeks. Mostly because implied volatility has been FALLING into earnings. When I take earnings trades, I am always looking for discounted premium, and $BABA options are trading at the cheapest prices they’ve ever traded into earnings.
From a technical perspective, the stock chewed through a massive wall of supply this week. In fact, look at an intraday chart of yesterdays price action. It spent the first hour and a half pegged at $85.
So after Barron’s talks about why the stock could fall 50% from the low $60’s, it’s actually up 40% since the magazine hit the racks. Think the next 10% is higher or lower?
Disclaimer: Long stock, bought calls Monday.
OA
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On my knees, praying to my sweet baby Jesus
Fuck.
well, you can’t blame me cuz I said very early on I had a big position in this. but ur right. maybe the run is over…
please crawl back into whatever anal cavity you escaped from
you are screwed my man….sorry
85 pin aug 19th to many calls at that strike
OA….I am not very on top of burritos…by any thoughts on $LEJU
Looks awesome!
Rumors the Saudis are going to consider freezing production.
$BABA production?
haha. one track mind right now
Alibaba Pictures is making Forrest Gump 2 : The Jack Ma Story
YHOO is actually my biggest position. Very nervous holding into earnings, but oh well! Lets see what happens.
My biggest loss ever was on a huge long term BABA position. I think it gave me PTSD. It’s been a long road not letting my emotions control me since then. I used to be an ice-man about stocks before BABA.
The name has never looked so ripe to escape this range. Next 10% is up I think. If there’s any weakness I would buy into it. It’s been behaving very well lately. Sentiment has shifted?
BABA Booyah!
It’s the end of the world as we know it – bchu and BABA
Boom!
Leju heads up on this one. Involved with Chinese private buy-out by EJ
Don’t overthink the ownership of BABA — evaluate the chart.
The post-earnings reaction to Macy’s report might be the inflection point to validate OA’s retail thesis. RH is my top holding.
Finally, watch the MJ stocks. The Feds are supposed to make the long anticipated announcement on declassification.
Guess I’m not such a jinx as you thought, OA!!
No wonder its fading off the open.
You better sell now then
Sold my BABA Sept 100’s for 5 bagger. Fuck Bchu
https://youtu.be/4ulWjFfLsL0
Levered to the gills in RH….I also like TLRD down here
$TLRD made my watchlist too.
Stalking SHAK down here….ideally below 37
OA – Morning and congrats on BABA. I was feeling your pain last 24 hrs on @#$%^FSLR. I havent been around much lately – hoping to come back regularly in the fall. Hoping you can give me a little advice. I have a decent winning position in MEET. It’s move has been insane and every day I stop myself from selling into strength. In this kind of open sky territory I have no idea how to measure/predict move. Wondering if you can advise. Thanks
Thanks for touching base, and what a great problem to have with this stock!
I like to use lower time frames to analyze these. As an example, last week it built a great range at $7.50. As long as it doesn’t break these ranges on the LTF, you have to let it trend. Nice one!
Espgal, If I may…
generally I absolutely agree with OA here, but you don’t need to ‘predict moves’ or agonize daily about what to do (been there, done that). Here is my thought process on MEET:
Meet Me is a tiny stock (300mil market cap) of tiny company (100 employees) in tiny town in Pennsylvania. Every week for the past two months this fucking thing trades quarter to a half of its ENTIRE tiny float. Now ask yourself – what ‘greater fools’ have been doing all this time and how many of them are still out there?
Note, I am not predicting that it will collapse by 30% tomorrow (this is how these tiny stocks usually end), nor I am trying to measure this company takeover price (which could be 50% higher). I am simply observing that its up 150% over 2 months, on exhaustive volume, in industry full of fraud, unrealistic expectations and broken promises. Besides, if you review long term chart, this thing round-tripped before – from $1 to $14ish in 2011, and back to $1. It was called Quepasa back then (rolling my eyes).
This is all poetry. Practically, I look at weekly chart and put a GTC (good till cancel) stop 10 cents under last week low. Its would be at 6.81 now, 6.20 a week before, and probably 7.12 next week. And not give it another second of your precious life.
Stress free trading 🙂
to be clear – its a trailing stop, but you trail it manually. Just update your stop order at the end of the week and continue to trail for as long as trend continues.
Gentlemen – thanks to both of you for well thought advice. As a veteran of Cdn capital markets I am no stranger to the old “pump and dump” incl best of breed Bre-x. I’ve put in two partial stop losses – half at $7.40, and half at 6.75. Sign me Stress free….
Sold TWTR weekly 19 calls
Took at shot with some LABU this am but already got stopped. Watching. And they are hating on my RIG with oil up 2%. I think there’s some f’ing derelict vessel run ashore in Scotland spewing diesel all over the place.
might just take some IBB so I don’t have to babysit a pos’n. Also this CRIS is looking good for a bio cheapie
Sold short NFLX 95.66
Dude, I’m telling you…She’s going to go HAM. Hoag bought 900k shares in the last 2.5 weeks.
This is where you and I differ in opinion. I do not agree that it is just a matter of time in certain stocks (ie. BIDU, NFLX, TSLA). We are too elevated for the tide to lift all ships.
Ok, agree to disagree. No problem with that.
Bot thousands of shares just yesterday
We all make bad decisions from time to time…just because an insider bought a slug of shares, doesn’t assure his investment will be profitable. The squeeze is a great opportunity for sellers to liquidate shares into IMHO.
Bought a couple NFLX Sept 90 puts.
My bad, wasn’t trying to turn this into a debate.
Out of RH…..going for a walk
Where’s the pocket on ECA? I feel like if it breaks $9 with some volume it’s gonna get gone
watch oil break yesterday’s high. ECA has escape velocity!
Taking another walk on the dark side….bought back UVXY 20.52 and BIS 32.12
This SPWR interests me. Long $10.3x
Nice call on oil rebounding yesterday in AHWOA. I bot
$UWTI and glad I did. It’s so much fun being right.
They should dump Cramer and give you his show. That
way everyone could actually learn something and make
$$ at the same time.
Long some $JDST here at $3.90 area… The metals aren’t confirming the new highs in the miners, with $SLV turning negative on the day.