Today’s bear trap might be enough to fuel the next leg up in stocks. The close was telling, and the breadth was off today. That means that while advance/decline was down, the selling didn’t match the pitch of market direction. Money managers aren’t in a position to sell here, which is why they’re telling you to be the one to sell stocks.
Pain trade here is a gap up, and that sets us up to work off this measured move in the $SPX. Dow and Nasdaq have the same pattern here, but the $RUT hasn’t confirmed this pattern yet. Downside risk is a retest of rising resistance. Dow/SPX downside is limited, Nasdaq a little more extreme. The upside targets are more significant in $RUT/$COMPQ.
It should be noted that the $NYMO hit relative OS today. -60 in a grind is as good as it gets.
The chase starts soon.
OA, any thoughts on RHT here?
Meh, kinda sloppy.
OA, can we check out MXL tomorrow?
Any thoughts?
I guess I’m asking the wrong question. I was looking at a long term investment
Yeah, I’ll take a look tomorrow and run through an analysis.
Thanks G
+1 post pic.
Look at VALE
I let go of that one too early. Look at it for a long?
Been meaning to ask, since you were one of few that agreed with me on this market outcome…but how many others you read that saw this coming as well?
The folks I talk to are all in. 100% bull with new highs into next year.
Right, I’m just wondering how many were talking this in the fall of last year, or beginning of this year?
OA, thoughts on these fertilizer stocks?
Same thoughts. Interesting for the long term. Probably a waste of a trade.
Anybody have a take on the 10:30 crude inventory report? Bullish or bearish?
Bullish. Draw to follow last night’s data.
opinion only.
wow shake and bake and go?
OA curious what you’re doing with your AUG TWLO call here? Did have great consolidation but has since gapped down. Considering taking my losses today.
Probably not a bad sell. Keeping mine.
Actually looks like a great spot. I’m thinking about buying here, but would have to sell something first.
$FSLR $DIS – like them here?
Yep
OA,
is WDC displaying after-earnings pattern you looking for? Not sure if this is your famous ‘aversion’ trade… or just my imagination?
Just trying to learn. Thanks
I think you can definitely argue that.
Moves like this are awesome when you can break down the volume in that price range. See if this chart works…http://tos.mx/QIsXsu
I see.
So a failed breakout from 6-months range, and July island reversal (bull trap) doesn’t bother you?
I wouldn’t think in terms of price failure, look at the volume off to the right as your barrier of support. Here is ok in WDC, below this value is not ok.
Make sense? I like the idea actually. Too many traders think in terms of price support. With all the failed moves that occur in this market, volume has been a much better form of analysis.
Admittedly, I don’t use volume, except for extreme readings as indication of exhaustion.
Couldn’t agree more about support/resistance issues. Some of my best trades over past couple of years came from bull/bear traps. I think you called it ‘sweep-the-leg’.
Thank you for explanation
I’m not if it’s been brought up yet, but any thoughts on $DERM? Nice cup and handle since June, just under the highs. Lower time frame has a nice wedge handle going.
Dude, how you been?
Great set-up there.
I’m good man, just getting back into the swing of things here. Took some time away to clear my head, but had to get back in this. Been waiting tooooo long for this move to get started to miss out…. Glad to see you killed the first part of the move this year!
Any interest in that post IPO setup on CEO? I recall you saying you liked those ones that trade sideways for a bit.
OA – Any interest in that post IPO setup on COE?
No, not the same pattern.
Been a long time.
Booked a three bagger in GDW this morning.
Sorry GNW
Nice shake and bake takeout break below the 20dma yesterday
These low price stocks always burn me but any opinions on VVUS for a possible lottery ticket play off a $1?