It’s no secret, I’ve held some $TWTR stock from Dick (Costello) prices. I knew once we traded @Dick for @Jack, I’d need to endure some pain for awhile. Thus I did. Never felt the time was right to average down, until last night.
I bought shares of $TWTR AH last night to bring down my basis. That report and the reaction kind of felt like a capitulation of sorts, and after watching this stock trade through months of discouragement, and start to slowly climb a wall of worry…this feels like aversion.
OA
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KMI also has that aversion look going and is reaching the bottom a nice looking wedge. premium is cheap here
Did $UWTI plummet because of the oil inventories report that just came out?
Yes – bailed on mine at 9:40 this morning. Every Wednesday at 10:30 is like earnings for crude.
Then I deserved to lose money due to my ignorance.
I continue to see sub $17 as a buy for Twitter. It has too much of a concrete placement in our society. It’s the fastest socially media platform. If LinkedIn is worth $26B while doing 800 m in quarterly revenue, then Twitter is worth more than it’s price right now doing 600m+ revenue.
Facebook’s market cap is 31x the size of Twitter. Good management can easily send this company much higher. Buying more shares today.
No buying until < 14.5
took a small bet on a bounce with $TWTR weeklies 16.50’s for .15
Bigger POS: Oil or TWTR? I’m torn. I give up on the oil trade…too hard.
I haven’t sold /CL but I’ve basically given up hope that I will make $$. Fucking POS
How long can the market keep shaking off crude? If stocks want up, oil has to bounce, right? Or is this what Fly calls perverse?
Market isn’t correlated to oil here. Under $40 and you might get a market response.
I personally don’t think oil goes down much more. I’ve been wrong, but the market I think is anticipating higher prices down the road.
And who says low oil prices is such a bad thing anyway?
Wait, that’s a moment in sentiment right there. Been buying for a week, but on a personal level you’re thinking lower?
Annoyed at myself for not focusing on the stocks vs oil itself.
Yeah, $XOP not ever near yesterdays low.
I am starting to see more correlations though. Stocks like RIG today or HES this morning after ER
Maybe participants are throwing in the towel “fuck it oil is going down” could mean sentiment is getting there.
Just a simple USO to OIH/XOP/XLE/ERX….the stocks are holding their ground pretty well.
FCX / CHK giving up ground now. Looks like they’re following oil.
Here we are with all of the new deep water rigs that were conceived during the go-go (2005 – 2008) days coming online, and with more fracking.
Plus, the past 3 years we have witnessed soft demand during the summer driving season, this is not good for oil bulls.
The bottom line is commodities trading is best left to the pros, if you want to call them that.
It took me almost 3 years to learn this lesson (don’t trade commodities), Sarge. Particularly with leverage involved. Though I did handle an $SCO trade this year. My first in a pure commodity in a long while. And my last unless I re-enter into crude strength.
I’m with you. I’ve lost $2,500 in the past couple of weeks trying to trade oil. I give up too. If I do decide to get back in, I will let you cats know so you can take the other side.
I am considering this as well. I’ll advise as my buy in will initiate a single digit handle for the stock and it will re-brand itself as “Twatter” then explode to the upside after I sell.
The problem I think that exist with twitter is that it’s ultimately a cult stock plagued by very polarized views of it and social media. Everyone who ‘gets’ it (which would definitely included anyone active online, right) thinks there’s value there and keeps wondering why it keeps going down, while simultaneously I believe there are enough deep pockets that just hate twitter for the sake of hating social media in general and keep leaning on their shorts at every pop.
There’s probably another even larger group of people who don’t have any feelings and just stay away entirely because they know it’s a drama filled space.
It’s not sticky enough. Snapchat is crushing everyone. I’d sell FB longer term.
OA – Any interest in the $FB earnings?
No, but only because this was the ticker I was asked about the most. I’d buy a gap down. However, I’m sure if I looked that it would be a popular response to this question.
I like $MAR tonight.
Which means FB will not give us gap down and rally after ER ??
Interesting to see tonight. I am long long term.
If LT, why are you actively asking about it?
Because I have both core investment port and trading port. And, of course, like to see other opinions. Thanks
Just grabbed $MAR calls. Great intraday volume here.
I know this isn’t really a “pairs trade” kind of forum, but I am thinking that a long home builder / short apartment REIT would work swimmingly for the 2+ year term. New supply dynamics are very-one sided right now and that’s going to have to correct soon. One would have to probably wait for a dip or consolidation on the long side of that trade though as the homies are getting hot.
I wish it were that kind of forum. More stuff like this is valuable.
$OA Looks like Biotech making a potential large breakout here, agree? Would make sense since most are ignoring it now
Yeah, I think that rotation call 2 weeks ago was a major inflection point.
Apt REIT short potentials (into strength): $SUI, $MAA, $CPT.
Not an apt. REIT, but $NYMT looks like a juicy short too
Housing Longs: $BZH, $TOL, look good, and $LEN looks the most buyable among the top guys. But all require a bit of weakness.
OA – What is your target range in about a year timeframe?
For $TWTR? Not sure, I’ll take whatever it gives.
Yeah.
I know you do not recommend long term option however I am thinking about buying Jan 2018 $25 call options; They’re $1.30 per contract.
That trade requires more pricing analysis.
like you, i was pricing Jan 2018 calls earlier today. If you go with Jan 2018 $20 calls…then the price needs to be higher than $23.75 at time of expiration to have a better % gain than just buying shares right here at 15.80. If you pick the $25 calls the stock price needs to be higher than $27.25 to get a return better than just shares. If you factor in risk of losing entire premium…it’s kind of a wash in my opinion.
Exactly. To do this, you have to combine where the premiums reach that point of “forget this, stock is dead.”
That’s where buying “time” longer term makes sense.
from a sentiment stand point….can an argument be made that people really do still have a lot of hope when OTM leaps are priced to the point that there’s little advantage over shares?
Yep. What’s funny is that the LEAP idea usually only arrives in this context. Stock punched, premiums high. Like after a big market rout. What you pay for those options matters because it offsets the gain in the underlying.
Gotta shop from the stocks with historically low IV. I always recall $YHOO and $LUV in August of 2012. That’s where LEAPS are a badass strategy.
from a pricing stand point, right here right now, DITM calls, like the $5’s are the only available leverage play. 11 bucks. a move to $25.50 would net a double….however the downside becomes amplified now if it stays flat or slightly down. Yeah, not worth it.
Oil is getting close, I like the 40.50 – 41 area but while everyone seems to be fixated on oil copper is quietly putting in bottom.