After the failed move up in stocks back in late January, market participants stopped buying into the idea that stocks could rally at all. The majority of the crowd has conceded to a bear market, as discussed yesterday. Now all I read is those that suggest the market is still a bear until xxxx level is hit.
Think about this for a moment…but what do you do in this situation? You are riding an opinion that is under pressure, and the market knows this, and it forces you into a tough spot to have to flip a script at elevated prices.
Anyway, the analogue from last week continues to work here and should pause again at 1940. The reaction there should be enlightening.
Not adding anything here, just letting it ride. Stalking some $AMZN puts for a quick trade later today.
OA
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3rd consecutive +2% day. Yesterday was +3%. Was maxed other leverage going into last Thursday.
Have done nothing so far.
2 days ago I started a long /NG at 1.89
Waiting for oil 31.50 & 33.50 today.
Not maxed other, maxed out
If everyone thinks that 1950 is a shorting level then the market will behave otherwise? That seems to be the history.
I’m trying to look at it as a logical place to sell lower conviction positions, and give a short leash to my $SSO there in case things do keep ripping past the obvious stall point. It looks like my former-high-conviction, now-convictionless position in $ZG will qualify for the axe at the 1950 range as we’re creeping into the underside of support. Probably $BLUE too, but we’ll see. That one looks like it has a little bit more room to crawl up into resistance. I’d like to hold for that gap into the 70’s-80 range, but hard to stay too confident on that when there are more attractive options out there.
JUNO 27 to 35…selling half
SHAK 31 to 37…selling a quarter
FLR 42 to 46…selling all
EMN…58 to 64…selling all
see, I can trade bear market rallies too
every bear market gives people a chance to get back some of their money..question is, how many take advantage of it
guru says the REAL bottom won’t be here till october but yea, we’ll have a few rallies and thats all I care about
Which guru?
Mo Ansari…been following him for almost 20 years but he’s been doing this for almost 40
he called for the latest rally but says it peters out soon and that march and april plunge..then we get a more sustainable summer rally that fails for the final bottom in october..i’m guessing by then we’ll have certainty about the presidential election
This rally has to last long enough to convince at least 1/2 of participants that they *might* have been wrong about a bear market.
I don’t think we’re there yet. Most my retirement website guys haven’t bought back in yet. Also see: gold dip buyers
What’s his specialty? Is he a wave guy? Is it Mohammad? He used to be a member of mine in 2011.
he does waves/cycle work and his own propietary models
and I have no idea what ‘mo’ stands for
the guy started out in the futures pits in the 70;s
Mo Ansari is radio guy.
Right, but I think his real name is Mohammad.
FANTASTIC CALL LAST WEEK OA!!! YOU ABSOLUTELY NAILED THE BOTTOM AND FORETOLD THIS MONSTER RALLY. Well done, sir!!!!!!! Lots and lots of shorts are TRAPPED here and this market is headed higher leaving all the bears scratching their heads. Too many people were yelling “BEAR MARKET BEAR MARKET!” Now they are seeing the REALITY of things…did they really think the powers that be globally would just sit back and allow the global markets to continue cratering? Not too smart!
Again, well done for calling this rally well ahead of time!!!!
Also, the people over on Tony Caldaro’s blog are falling all over themselves wondering how the market is rallying today…time to re-count those waves for the umpteenth time! Too funny.
Hey dude, you are on a short leash again. Keep it civil.
Having serious case of FOMO and I did buy stock last week. I imagine this will keep driving prices.
OA – bravo on another prescient call. Once more your “leg-sweep” theory was spot on.
Are people making up for January with this February rally?
Algos gunning to take us back to Oct levels by earnings April.
IMHO
My spider sense tells me that /CL will blow through 31.50. Shorts are not interested in pressing at that level.
If this 50 RSI cross presents itself like that last 3 big rallies, I have 203-204 as upside target in SPY. I find it hard to believe myself but considering all the people shorting and late buyers coming in, this loop could continue for a while.