If you’ve traded options before, these instruments sure can make life hard on you. Most people struggle to get direction right, let alone time.
As an option trader, you have to get them both right. It really accentuates the ‘pucker factor’ in trading quite a bit.
The detour that the market took mid-week last week really muffed up my positioning for the month. It was a reminder that when everything seems to be going to planned, you are a complete dumbfuck for thinking what you are experiencing is normal, or that what you are experiencing will have any reason to continue as planned.
That setback cost me some big gains from the week prior, and now has me playing catch-up to get back to levels I was at first week of the month. We spoke on this briefly last week, as I watched monster moves in several names give back gains, and even have a few that turned red in the process. I struggle with greed quite a bit. Fear I can handle, but the most intriguing part of trading in my brain is letting a gain ride for a bigger gain.
I made a few additions here today in $TNA, $PYPL and $AAPL. I view today’s action as constructive, but likely not ‘finished’ in terms of moving forward from the volatility of the last few days. The most important elements here are limited downside in the instrument that lead you lower ($RUT) improving breadth, and recognized leadership.
Got any set-ups you like? Fill me in.
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OA
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TNA isn’t ready yet. 1.40 in Exodus. Needs to go lower.
If it goes lower, it breaks the market.
The one setup that has me most intrigued is crude. We are setting up for a slingshot higher here, think right side of the “W”. If you get a dip, but it. This will be so fast your head will spin. Targeting $50 at a minimum.
How many times have we been saying $50 only to get ass raped??
@Chub i totally agree. These oil companies need to go bankrupt first in Q2 of 2016 for me to get interested in trying to catch that oily knife
Hey.
Sorry to hear the move down cost you coin.
I am swing trading, holding short til end of November.
All I can offer is my view, which is: up into Friday, but not too high, maybe 2060-70 ES.
Next week is likely to see further significant plunging. Not sure if you guys play the short side?
FWIW that view is based on my view we’re already in a bear, just past 2nd chance peak, solar/lunar patterns, and the look/feel of the indices and divergences. (Opex is Friday I believe, but I don’t factor that in).
Once the bear is accepted, no doubt you’ll join me in selling rips. Check out November 2000 & 2007, both -10% peak to trough. 10% down this month hits a rising trendline on ES at c. 1910, that’s where I’ll get out.
Good luck.
I had like 5 or 6 stocks up 10-30% each on Friday and thought I’d get cute and let them ride. Asshole move…my own fault. It was well before the market made any attempt lower.
I’m in the same boat. Had a huge W turn into a huge L. We’ll get em next time…
Plus my risk management was garbage. Yours probably not as bad.
No, it sucked. I got a little revved up…makes me act like a dick when that happens.
Yup. Me too. Stand-up comedy and bball are my ultimate fixes though hah
Verdict so far: TNA is “ok” with an oil squeeze. As you can see by the charts, it is still a “measured” move by the Algos. They just snacked the short stops above 41.88 /CL and are sitting right at that level now. I like to incorporate time and price (extra Martin Armstrong). If we breach 42.50 and close, that suggests a new range of maybe 40 – 46 setting up prior to the Dec 4 Opec meeting. As much as I don’t give two shits about that meeting, it will still affect domestic US oil prices.
If 42.50 is not breached today, I’ll look to fade that level tomorrow around 10:10/11:10 and then measure the strength of oil going into options expiration for the Dec contract at 2:30pm on Tuesday.
Double “f” you finger potential bottom on the 5 day in SCO. If that is breached, it is a good sign for the oil bulls. I am the best positioned for an oil spike within the context of my short oil thesis evah. If TNA, KMI, WYNN, & GDX catch up, it’s party time.
Assuming I time the spike’s high correctly !!!!!
Girlfriend says oil going higher …. just sayin’ ….!!!!!!!!
Is she long or short oil though?
Sorry OA, it was just a joke. She has zero interest in the market although the last two times I asked her this question at critical junctions she got it right for about 2 -3 days. #meansnothing !!!!
Crude been down 7 days in row or something like that. This a small bounce compared to it
I’m going to be that guy… thoughts on IBB/LABU? Does this move lower have you concerned at all? Testing the recent breakout.
I think that is the Market plan, so next time it up, people gonna sell and get out, expecting the market will go lower again. Then, the market will keep going up, leaving weak hand behind. Rinse and repeat. The market is a drug, sucking people in , unless one got an attitude like a king Omaha. I added FB this morning. ( I should’ve sold some at 110, but I didn’t,,,,, greed )
Short into this rally Tom?
Never. I never shorted. I still think your roadmap is intact. Trying to pick up good stocks little by little any dips.
Financials to assume leadership — very good news for the bulls if so. TRV looks best to me.
Big volume coming into NVDA — should rip above 30.3
If your trading is anything like your assessment of QB’s then your account is about to blow up!
kidstockibc
November 16, 2015 at 12:58 pm
Waiting for the wheels to fall off this market is no different than waiting for the wheels to fall off of Tom Brady. Can’t keep the good stocks down and Tom Brady is going out like Elway.
Reply
bensteinsmoney
November 16, 2015 at 3:04 pm
Hahaha … you mean Peyton Manning is going out like Elway don’t you? Brady is only suffering now cuz his OL is broken … they will be back and Tom will be breaking records long past Peyton’s game ball/benching… LOL!!!
I’m totally confused by this market. Hundreds of people killed and injured in one of the world’s major cities and no country has a clue how to stop future tragedies and the market trades up? I can understand this if the economy was white hot but earnings suck too. Only people smiling should be those who own real estate in major US cities. Wealthy foreigners should be arriving shortly,.
Any thoughts on ONCE here?
Watching this one for a long this week.
Maybe we would be better off selling options?
On the other hand, you should hear the story about how I sold naked calls on TLT before it ripped tits to the upside in a historic move. -2000%
BCEI
strong buying now. I will daytrade the first day of a potential low but never hold overnight. The keys day’s are always the second and third IMO.
Closing the December contract at 42.50 on Tuesday, 2:30 E.S.T. would make the options makers some good coin from my interpretation of the open interest. I am going to use that as a basis for trading until then. Fade any significant move above 42.50 and buy any significant move down tomorrow. Day trades only. Have to reassess at options expiration.
any thoughts on long $CYBR here?
I like $PANW
OEW recap of today’s market action by Tony;
” Today’s rally: 2019 – 2053 is by far the best rally since Major wave 4 began. This suggests either Int. wave a or Major 4 ended at today’s low. Until the market reaches the 2070 pivot range we can not completely rule out a retest of SPX 2019 to complete Major 4. For now, since all of our oversold parameters were met for the end of Major 4, we believe the 2070 pivot is next. Short term support is at SPX 2040 and the 2019 pivot, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots.”