Here’s how this will work. Next week we will be meeting in the evenings, Monday-Friday starting at 7:30 PM ET. The discussion will last a little more than 60 minutes, with 90 minutes of Q&A. There will be an interactive feel to it, as you can leave comments during the presentation, some of which I will use to navigate the discussion.
Each session is recorded. If you can’t attend, or just want the recordings for future use, you get them all. Here’s the content outline:
- Understanding Market Dynamics
- Past versus Present – 2014-2015
- Understanding Market and Stock Rotations
- Trading Through Different Market Conditions
- Trading for a Living – Advice, Ideas, and Rules to Make it Work
In the first segment, we spend a lot of time on the mental and sentiment aspect of trading. We talk about being proactive and strategic about trading, as to not put yourself into an obvious situation where you become the easy target. We also talk about technical principles that work, markets risk appetite, correlation, behavioral patterns and speed.
The second segment is an in depth comparison to market conditions between 2014 and 2015. This also triggers discussion on the analogues we’ve been using, and how the two main types of market dynamics discussed in session one can be seen in any prior market year.
The third session will be a guide on market rotations. This starts with overall economic cycles, to market cycles, to sector rotation. Then I delve into my own personal take on how stocks rotate within the market in a risk cycle. The 2014-2015 comparisons for this one feature are worth the price of admission in my opinion.
Session four is breaking down the different types of markets and talking about how to trade them. I’m experimenting with some new portfolio management metrics I might get into in this discussion. Strategies, timing, and everything else will be inserted into this segment.
Finally, session five is a full breakdown on trading for a living. How to prepare, what you need in order to survive and take the pressure off. Tactics, strategies and overall philosophies.
I will distribute slides, and recordings will be sent out each evening via email that you can download and save to your machines. If you have any questions about this, email me at [email protected]. Sign up here.
Hope the weekend is a good one.
OA
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I like the way the market is acting; according to script.
And anything to drive day traders up the wall is a bonus, especially when they sell their expensive shares to me cheaply.
OA- do you change ur thoughts on a new high by 12/11 still? With the move this week, that has to have changed right???
No, hasn’t changed. The date may be too early…but the date doesn’t impact how I position for it.
Understood. Thanks for the feedback.
Early weakness next week will put my oversold indicators into buy territory. We’ll evaluate what the market does with the strength.
Not trolling, going to participate. Can we get Apollo Robbins?
Which segment should he teach?
Session 1, Easy Targets…?
A little piece of data that may assist traders in the coming months, look at the number of trading days between significant highs and lows for most of this year.
Many believe solar/lunar influences are behind this clear cycle.
I’ll stay short til end of November.
Good luck.
Bluestar thought it was OpEx cycles, right? Are there any similarities?
I haven’t looked into opex dates.
Anticipating a 5% move from last weeks’ low in oil to challenge the 42.50 level. If it cannot be broken, the move to lower thirties is validated. I expect this type of move to be considered “inflationary” and will help TBT. the folks expecting mean reversion in TLT should be cognizant of this. This has been the pattern. I look for patterns to fail to prompt changes in thesis. So far still short Oil, but expecting a challenge to 42.50 and short the long bond as I expect a trade to 2.50 on the 10 year and 3.25 on the 30 year going into the December payroll.
When I say “inflationary’ I am referring to any bounce in oil next week. If oil penetrates 42.50 and forms a 40 – 46 new channel, that will be significantly helpful to TBT. IMO any mean reversion in TLT starts in the first week of Dec just prior to payrolls. If payrolls suck, then further mean reversion into the second week of December ahead of Fed meeting.
Hard to gauge when the selling will abate but buying quality businesses at discount prices will be rewarded. Would like to see Crude lift as an added sign of stabilization. Economy is improving and any dislocations should be bought (ie JWN).