Over the last week or so, we discussed and tried to plan for a market that should start to level off a bit. You saw this start to happen last week as the indices closed red Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. However, despite a lower market, most of you caught massive wins last week.
Today we are seeing additional downside movement, but to a larger degree across the indices.
Time to panic? No, I don’t think so. At least not yet.
Ultimately we are looking for a range to develop through the middle of November. This move ought to help define the lower end of the range. Best thing I am seeing today, is that there is still a lack of correlation in this move, and the extended nature of most indicators have reset today significantly.
Right now, I am watching $FXI and $EEM. They’ve retested the Aug-Sep range. They should hold up around these areas. If they don’t, that becomes a concern. We won’t sustain this elevation without them. The $HYG, as discussed in After Hours with Option Addict, should be watched here as well.
Top picks from my watchlist are $ONCE, $MBLY, $BOX, $RUBI, $LULU. The remainder of my watchlist looks great into a little more weakness.
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Jeff – What would you target as a good spot to buy XBI / LABU? Should we assume a wedge will build out here?
http://ibankcoin.com/option_addict/2015/11/06/the-glass-half-full-side-of-bio-vesting/
http://ibankcoin.com/option_addict/2015/11/06/the-glass-half-full-side-of-bio-vesting/
“I love the idea of playing this particular theme in biotech. If I were going to play the long side, I have ZERO interest in the ETFs and would prefer to dial down to these stocks.”
Keep an eye on the 10 & 30 yr auctions or more importantly the price action afterwards. They are on Tuesday and Thursday with Wednesday being a bank holiday. Had we not had a bank holiday this week, I believe Friday trading would have continued into today. Need to scare some folks into bond.
PIcked up a couple more MU Jan calls here. Ditched the Nov COP call and got a bit of UWTI instead.
I want to get back into LABU but waiting for lower prices.
Thanks man.
Any thoughts on IACI?
I’m thinking of buying a position ahead of the Match spinoff.
No, not yet.
Thoughts on $TDC? Disappointing earnings but bounced back next day – $GS putting in a floor? Lower time frame finishing off a C&H. Have a Dec 30 and considering another. Or maybe I could add another Dec $URBN here based on lower tiem frame aversion move… so much choice, I just keep flipping back and forth among everything and should probably just turn off the monitor.
TDC – needs time.
GS floor?? Up $30 in a month.
I like retail, lots to choose from.
thought it was on GS buy list, just searched and seems I am wrong.
Bought QURE and sold ZIOP.
Before the breakout????????????????????????????????????????????
Sold ZIOP @14.03. I’m ascairt of bear flag here.
A bear flag in an uptrend? You must be standing on your head.
Yeah right. Wrong label. Probably got out too soon, but with so much going south, I took a profit.
With so much going south, why would you trade a name that is securely in the green for something in the red??? Why didn’t you just sit?
‘Here’ is not the time to be watching HYG in my opinion.
No, one should have been watching it the past few days, and since October 23rd, as that’s when it started to clearly signal ‘risk-off’, if one was watching.
Not quite too late to get out of risk yet, but soon, every man and his dog will be selling.
‘Time to panic? No, I don’t think so. At least not yet.’
Indeed, panic much lower.
Good luck.
Hey, honestly, great call on all of this. Your warnings started in mid September, in front of the most epic rally we’ve seen in quite some time.
Brilliant.
Its been a fun ride up…my question is this what the other side of euphoria should look like?
What do you mean?
Not true, I did not go short until October 10th -12th on FTSE, and have remained within 2-3% in the red ever since. I closed shorts just before the Sept bottom.
And now I’m 4% in the black.
Don’t begrudge me some gains, surely just a matter of time before the ’98 pattern rescues you bulls anyway?
Good luck.
Rescues us bulls? No buddy, it saved us at the lows when the horn you were tooting got lodged up your tailpipe.
Not true? Here’s a diagram in case you forgot.
http://ibankcoin.com/option_addict/files/2015/11/GMBLOG.jpg
I have to call BS.
Your dates and price bars don’t match recorded history at all.
What’s that all about?
You chart appears to show a low at Sept 14th? The low was 29th?
You do know, when a bubble is about to burst, the bear makes it hard to get on board.
I was a couple of weeks early, but on a weak index, so sat through a 3% drawdown (on paper).
Let’s see what happens, but your charting….mysterious discrepancies.
You are right. I zoomed in, pasted one chart on top of the old. The bottom should have been cut off. Fixed.
I am bemused I’ll confess.
I have no idea whether you doctored the chart, or what happened.
As ever, I don’t really care, just weird that you would do that, if you did.
Gosh.
Lol…why would I doctor a chart? It looks even better untouched. The dates are the strong point, not the weakness. It was a paste and zoom gone bad.
+1
LMAO
Hi Jeff. Trying to sign up for your online Conf. Bootcamp and cant seem to get processed. Is it just me or system problem? Thx – and so glad you are doing this. I cant wait.
In response to a previous blog: Take it from a long time Celtics fan … Jeff Green will rip your heart out (even though his has been repaired). Every time he has a good-great game you’ll think he’s finally breaking out, but alas, next game he reverts to Mr. Anonymous leaving the fan scratching his head again. Passive/Aggressive one with the passive side always winning out. Don’t be fooled by the athleticism and occasional “big game” that you see now and then … it’s fools gold.
Haha! Ok, noted. But when he wants to play, he seems like he can get whatever he wants in a game.
Ya mean when he “feels” like asserting himself …. Good luck with that. He is most comfortable being the “not go to guy” or the third or fourth option. His best games come when he’s in DC, back home within shouting distance to Georgetown.
Yeh Sixers/Celtics fan here. Green has a great skill set but is really inconsistent. He doesn’t ‘bring it’ every game which makes him hard to build around. Maybe if he played for a coach that really leaned on him every game he would get there.
You guys got a great find in Gobert though. Seeing Embiid, I can’t help but feel envious.
Yeah, when he’s fired up to play, he brings it.
KERX worth watching
A lot of interesting spots here: $LULU at $50, $WFM at $30, and I’ve always wanted to own either $MBLY or $NMBL (for some reason I pair the two in my mind), $NWBO at $5.00, and $WYNN is creeping back into that $63-65 level that I was seeking for a long term entry. And those are just my favorites. I get anxious when this much looks good to me.
LABU kids. Take a look at today’s strength. $$$$
I think we’re all on that same page here.
I thought you said to stay away from the biotech etfs and focus on individual co’s. I’m saying ithis ETF is a strong buy (see post on the buy Friday morning). Positioned since Friday morning.
Don’t get me wrong..I’m glad we basically on same side of ledger!
Oh, I said to pick stocks.
You have a leveraged ETF up 1.5%. I told these guys to buy $ONCE this am, up 7%. I got them in $IDRA, up 7%, and $ZIOP up about $3 since reco, and 3.5% today.
You can do so much better is what I am saying and illustrating with the stock buys. I think a blind man could outperform the index here.
Talk to me in a week when LABU is up 20%++
No need. Go shake him down over there. I’m a few steps ahead.
And congrats on the biotech wins today! You should have sent Raul the memo over the weekend
OA, what about $CL here?
I suppose. Near support.
sorry, it should be $CI
Why?
wedge formation and close to 50 week MA.
And absolutely zero love in this market. It’s healthcare. Who wants healthcare here?
Is anyone doing an options trade on a potential breakout in BAC over the next few months?