Man, the silence says it all. This all went off way too perfectly.
Let me say this, the way both traps were set in the last few weeks creates the most perfect signal. The perfect signal are all the elements that were needed in order for me to call all of this in advance.
Let me ask you this…
If you woke up tomorrow, let’s say Dow down 100 points…would you be a buyer or seller into that move and why?
OA
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i think most people would be sellers. I myself, understanding your game plan and recognizing sentiment over the last week, would likely buy.
buyer.
Buyer – would be looking to complete 401k allocations.
buyer, I spend most of my time trying to find the price teh price I want on the calls that I want. $GPRO Novs,
I just bought OCt2 wkly calls in $GPRO
what strike did u get?
31
Assume you mean 23rd? Great, thanks OA, appreciate the guidance. Figure earnings are early Nov, FWIW.
No 2 as in 2nd week…this week.
Ahh! Thanks, I was eyeing those instead of 23rd, lol.
Would just hold…
Sold out of longs today. Taking a break for a bit as I believe that the quick/easy money has already been made. The market will still be there when I come back.
i did the exact same thing.
Sounds like aversion. ..no??
Sounds like this…. cha-ching!!!
man, is it a good thing everyone here is saying they would buy that dip? Pain trade would be to further drop
Good thin you closed the bio short…she’s looking for orifices to probe here.
giddy yup!
Sounds like the crowd in Buffalo after two beatdowns at home…
why the shot at the Bills?? they will be there at the end..just watch
Same Rex….different city. Patriots STH since 2011.
I was Bills STH from 1988-2000..THOSE were great times!! Enjoy the season
Hold what I have, and buy more.
Faith
Buyer. Down to 30% cash. I think we hit new highs by December.
Not sure about the silence, or do you mean last hour? It looks like a lot of iBC traffic/comments over the weekend. Which is always a good indicator of inflection points. Now are there buyers who were sidelined waiting for new lows, going to chase? Or are sellers taking this as a fat pitch to short? Up is the worst outcome here for both, so I’d be a buyer of the dow on a 100 point drop.
Yes, that’s exactly what I am trying to determine.
Example, Exodus overbought. That quick of a signal, does it confirm the buy in the bull trend, or is it the first extreme to short in the new bear?
I’ll post on that next.
Because of the August 24 move the range is big here, there are plenty of moves to shake confidence. Reversion to the mean is also a play. I think the mean is still up trend, (long time frame).
NOPE. NO BUY
Are you short yet?
Does all caps count as more than one response?
My point is rally in a bear market ..
Rally in a bear market pulls further down to weakness
Why is this a bear market?
Because it’s down 7% duh!
lol
You’d be surprised at the responses I am generating here. Like wow.
This is just one example:
http://stockcharts.com/articles/decisionpoint/2015/10/sp-500-earnings-trending-downward.html
Wait, I wanted YOUR opinion.
Thanks for this chart. Good thing to reference as I like to look at fundamentals.
I am having a fairly easy time finding stocks trading at significant discounts to the market that appear to have bases. I’d love to play the small cap game more like I did from 2009 to 2013/4 but I’m finding more value in large caps.
Sir, is YOKU or GOGO options stii a buy?
Next time the stock is down, sure.
This INTC won’t give up. Given the course of the past few weeks I’ve been tempted to sell it as I have a large position in it and luckily bought it near the lows. But the valuation is so low with many catalysts in the air.
I think this squemishness about holding is what will drive the market higher.
Ha. meant QCOM not INTC
Thoughts on AMBA Jeff?
Buy dips/
Jeff…How about $CLVS on todays weakness.
Spot looks easy to manage.
Guys offer an opinion. Or a rebuttal. I want to hear why everyone is doing something or not doing something. OA isn’t your PM to just ask buy or sell XXX. Just my two cents
How do you feel about FIT here OA?
Thanks!
I was really hoping I would get a shot at it at $33.
FIT? One day soon you will see this stock in a GPRO-like deal spiral. Just a dumb-ass product.
death spiral..
Short NQ 4328.5
Dang, I was hoping for an even 100.
Ha! This may have a few more points of upside but the risk reward is to just good to pass up so I’m going to give it a little room.
BUYER!!! Because we have re-tested the lows successfully (last week).
This is what I’m hearing from 4 different people who are traders, bankers, money managers, excluding myself… when asked if buy or sell, I got the following answers 1) lowering some exposure into strength… limited upside (maybe “4 or 5%” max); 2) “you’re guess is as good as mine”, 3) “def not buy” 4) sit tight; he doesn’t buy unless there’s blood in the streets… so i guess sentiment is still very poor, but obvs. small sample size.
a 5th just rolled in… “can’t even begin to guess”
Yeah, that sounds about right. Folks here are a little biased, I like the idea of asking those who aren’t reading. More relevant sample, IMO.
Good shit man! I wonder why the guy who thinks we have limited upside thinks so. Obv we are in a bear market and this is just that kind of rally. The guys who said they have no idea will prob sell on strength no? Pain trade is up?
@mantis – i’m thinking pain trade is up still from these convos, but who knows… the 1st guy says overhead supply will come into focus soon and we’re just a few % away from all time highs, so doesn’t feel a need to buy and is instead selling off some of his names… also concerned about earnings
@DJ – Thanks for that!!! No one knows, so let’s not pretend we do. There are no absolutes, only calculated risks.
Always scares me when chubs is giddy and claiming to understand you
ok. i don’t understand. just flipping coins to take positions. getting lucky lately I guess :/
You should go back and read some of your strongly expressed opinion posts sometime and see what happened afterwards. Like laughing at Fly going long gold end of July or JohnV buying SPX lows a couple weeks ago
my biggest money maker this year has been going long JDST
So what? Sure wasn’t when you were giggling away at Fly’s call. I look to your lol’s and strong assertions for signals to go the other way so please keep it up
Wanted to offer up FLS. A company that produces products that facilitate flow for water, oil and gas, and other industrial liquids. Made a little base at 40 up 7% today. Perhaps on another down day it’s worth a shot. I’m not a great trader but the company produces real products and they are diversified.
I’ve gotta say I enjoy the references Fly is making to Bluestar. Fighting words for sure.
Picked up some of the always hated SHLD.
SHLD on the Ouija today
Thanks Bucs, made my week at 9:32 with TCK. Just fuckin around for MOAR.
Thanks for your input.
OA – you have a stance on crude here? up against that $47 price resistance for the umpteenth time.
Closed SSO and VXX put spreads. Still have GS, EWG. I wouldn’t mind seeing a few days of weakness to rope in more bears before rocketing higher.
Maybe not just 100 down. I’d like to see ES pullback to 43ish/30ish. I would probe both levels. Would have to see OB worked off just a touch. Order in for short 4334 NQ did not get a fill today. Overall, think we can work higher, I will miss the boat if it happens in a straight line.
I think that’s why it won’t happen. Most I talk to are waiting for a pullback as well.
I don’t disagree one bit. It’s what I’d like, doesn’t mean it’ll happen though. Lots of guys with way more knowledge than me feel the same. Lots of, “if it’s for real, they’re not letting people on the bus, and not letting shorts off” comments. Think it’s more the rookies like myself looking for the pullback.