Guess what? The market will open tomorrow. Unless of course some crazy shit happens at 9:23 tonight, then I think we’ve made it through financial armageddon.
At the end of last week I warned to stop chasing the market up into the Fed. We talked about waiting for some downside first, and a little time to pass before dipping a toe in. Well, we’re at a much better spot to do this now that the market has bitch-slapped late buyers, and welcomed in some sellers.
HOWEVER, to effectively get out of this shit stage of market mispricings for the longer term, we are going to need to set out a trap. Two of them, actually.
This week has worn down bulls, and it’s only Wednesday. To really KO them, you’ve gotta give them a good trap around here. Perhaps a gap down and strong reversal, or a real strong trend day here in the next day or two. Once that happens, you’ll drag in a lot of tired and worn out bulls. Best case scenario from there is to see that rally faded hard the following day, and for the market to trade lower over the next few days…closer to or beyond 1900. By doing this you’ll kill a lot of the remaining bulls and force bears to participate from lower prices.
The same scenario played out in 1998, naturally…
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This is a repeat of 2011, not 1998.
And sell your NFLX, AMZN is offering prime for $67 Friday. NFLX still wants to old fashion mail their content to your door while AMZN has grasped the 21st century business model, the Internet.
The online content on NFLX is horrible.
No, 1998, I can provide countless correlations across all assets.
98 was fueled by DELL, MSFT, CSCO, INTC
FB, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL
INTC, CSCO, INTC gained about 100% in seven months. DELL 250%.
No way AAPL, NFLX, GOOG FB can do that.
NFLX doubled in 6 months this year.
GOOG at $1500, no way.
Up 100% in 18 months.
I knew traders putting down 400-500k on DELL, INTC, CSCO, MSFT PET.COM.
A guy next door bought a 100,000 World Com bond.
<<<>>> All gone.
These folks are still around and are not doing this anymore.
It was called IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE.
Hope you’re right. I’d love to buy some NFLX lower for the longer term account
Sure about that? NFLX has Blockbuster written all over it. Could get bought out but $AMZN or etc could destroy it if they wanted to.
Should say not in the name. The grandparents have stopped sending in the dvds. Probably from dementia but still. With on demand and what not. Outdated over owned etc.
Netflix has the brand name. It’s sole purpose is to stream content over the internets. Amazon may offer a similar service but people don’t come to it to do the same thing as Netflix…it’s buried in their site.
I’d be concerned about AAPL more than anyone if they can get off their asses and focus on the TV and not some idiotic car concept.
But NFLX has a perfect biz model and I think long term viability.
By the way, I think it’s a repeat of 1962. Just going on record. I was negative 16 then.
The one good thing about getting the NFLX DVD in hand is the ability to rip it. But Amazon is going offer the download/offline service soon. NFLX is pissed.
what’s a DVD?
Looking forward to this: http://tlc.thinkorswim.com/center/release
In 1998 we were in a bull market. we never had a primary bearish trend change. Today we have a Primary bearish trend change. We are in a bear market. However lets see what happens when we get down to the august lows.
What was the signal, move, or metric that provided the signal. I’ve tried asking a few bears but never got the moment or signal in which it occurred.
Which signal? I am confused.
“Today we have a Primary bearish trend change. We are in a bear market.”
How is trend change defined in this situation?
When both the DJIA and DJTA take out their secondary low points. The Transports did it way before the Dow. Its called non confirmation. On 8/21 they both did it and confirmed a structural tend change down. 99% of the assholes you hear don’t know what dow theory is or define it properly. I am not an excerpt on the subject but my boy Tim is one. he has the original writings of the dow theory fathers, who were market timers by the way. They would anticipate their signal and once confirmed would press their shorts. Basically I kinda knew we were in a bear but once this happened I was sure. So all rallies are counter trend until otherwise notified.
I’m going on record. I think we’re in 2015.
You were on the 29 or 87 team…right?
I went to Vegas for the 923 event and all is quiet considering its Vegas. I guess it wasn’t greenwich or eastern timezone. Wish me luck in 3 hours…..
You can use a simple 10 month MA … On monthly bars … That would indicate that we have entered a bear or at minimum you should be in cash … Probably one of the most downloaded papers ever when it comes to quant trading http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=962461
Wait, the smartest guys in the room fall back on the moving average?
What the fuck?
http://ibankcoin.com/option_addict/files/2015/09/movingaveragesaregay.png
Not saying this in an antagonizing way, but you seem a little frustrated OA and you typically come across cool as a cucumber.
My blog posts? Just a gag.
More the comments. I know you’re a pro, but just pointing it out because sometimes I don’t recognize my own bias right away and wish I did. I may be totally off base too, so theres that.
No, I can appreciate that. I was frustrated that so many have called a turning point, and nobody could answer what that point was.
Plus, I have been killing this thing on a day trading level, and while wanting to focus on playing the move lower this week, I have executed on my own in horrific fashion.
2011:
Top – July 22nd
Bottom – Aug 19th
Retest – Sept 30th
2014:
Top – Aug 17th
Bottom – Aug 25th
Retest – ?
Already ran those numbers. 1998.
No … Thats one simple approach that works well great…and yes that could happen …
No offense towards you. I thank you for the comment as nobody has been able to tell me what signal clearly stated bear market.
I think most people are just looking at the Dow Theory sell signal.
It’s a bear because I’m out-performing and I only out-perform in bear markets …so it’s trading like a bear..
Bears are definitely out this AM.
OA,
You loaded up on UWTI on Tuesday. How’s that working for you?
Took a long, hit my stop. Never had that happen?
Reversal day today. This is your signal right here.
Still holding that 3x short from 10-15% lower? You coincidentally stopped commenting every 15 minutes once oil got going.
I don’t think that is the real Sethster.
Well we got your gap down