In a world where yield no longer exists, the USD/JPY has become a VIX-like indicator for me. It breaks down these panic situations to one underlying concept, when investors can borrow yen and buy US stocks, they will. Until this situation changes, my outlook remains boolish.
The traditional yen carry trade is an interest rate play, where investors borrow yen and buy higher interest vehicles, formerly U.S. Treasuries…now stocks.
One of the divergences we are looking to play out this week, is a non-responsive USD/JPY (or /6J) while stocks sell-off.
The USD/JPY hasn’t made it out of its’s post-August range yet.
We’ve referenced this as an indicator each time volatility has spiked, and it hasn’t disappointed yet. Should this start to breakdown, I become a little more worried about the outcomes we’ve planned.
OA
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Trying some TSLA weekly calls here
Added some UA calls as well
And some PYPL calls
I would keep any positions light at this point….I got burned in August anticipating too much…
Added more calls here…no fear – buying price, not price action.
Below 119.5 starts getting me concerned.
Kinda like the location here for a NKD trade to the long side
Bought EXEL here.
SUPER STRONG ONCE AGAIN IN THE FACE OF A MELTDOWN!
Jeff, Speed is missing .. VIX is scary up like 20% .. Some thing tells me people are slowly liquidating .Do you think more sell of pickup at close or reveral ?
Ok. What are you suggesting?
I hoped to see flush .. but didn’t happen .. May be we see reversal ? ..
Let me be honest. I don’t know .. at this point ..You are the Master ..
If we have stay near the lows and have another gap down tomorrow, that would be worrisome for the short term, but should set up the bullish exuberance OA has been talking about a la ’98
is biotech a buy here or non-touchable like y2k if exuberance doesn’t come?
I’m about to sell my $BIS for $LABU.
you are crazy and i love it
Thanks. Is it one-day holding?
No, EOY holding.
youre going to hold a 3x etf till EOY?
O.O
mind to let us know when? haha. my biggest options gainer ever was XBI puts on friday. sold way to early obviously.
your timing of your calls is absolutely outstanding. a modern day prophet – if we see this ’98 style rally into year end, i will buy a subscription for next year and never look back.
OA is exceptional, but I worry that too many people are looking at this as a 1998 analogue.
100% correct. Everyone is talking about what OA is seeing in different investment forums. We are going to plunge much further as a result.
You guys may be overestimating the reach / effect of some retail traders talking about what OA is doing.
Really? Where else is this being discussed?
ditto. he’s been a magician this entire month. pretty amazing.
Here’s your retest gentlemen. Time to write some buy tickets.
Bought QQQ OCT 103s
OA, it sounds like what you’re suggesting is that the Aug lows will likely hold up?
No, the analogue calls for a breach…I still think its a toss up.