Forced to sit here and watch the market drip outside of its range on a Friday. What torture.
The good news is that you’ll have THREE whole days to think this through rather than just two.
In a perfect world, I’d love to see a trade back up to 1930 here by the close, but at the moment this can be viewed as acceptance outside of balance. If we do do trade up to or above 1930, this can also be looked upon as the break a range to rip a range set-up. However, this leaves you, the reader gathering info from me that the market could either go up or down from here. I try to avoid those types of posts.
As Raul mentioned, this is the 9th neutral day in a row for the NASDAQ.
“initial balance = range of first hour of trade. neutral day is when you breach both high and low of initial balance. In /nq_F (nasdaq futures) were have done this 9 days in a row. range extension is how we gauge higher time frame participation. If we take out both high and low, we are neutral on the directional conviction of the higher time frame. Neutral extremes carry directional conviction but lately they get faded the next day.”
Next week the market will pick a side. Hopefully one you can play at competitive prices.
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Is it my eyes or does WING appear to be poised for a run to 29+
its your eyes
Really? No wedge pattern on hourly since August?
I’m thinking this may be a “buy when others are fearful” kind of day.
Is this fear though? It’s so effing quiet.
quietest down 300 day ever. no panic whatsoever. Just acceptance its a slow drip bear market
I don’t see any panic, just more cash-raising by bulls ahead of the long weekend and opening of the China market (and of course the dreaded Shetima). If we close near these levels, the clear pain trade for Tues would be gap and go, no?
could be but we have china ( + europe…) open monday while us closed
wow. check out Fly’s biggest position. CYBR. down like 20% over last few weeks. Came across this when I was analyzing FEYE
It just doesn’t feel like we have seen a real flush out yet.
Agree KDog, but I don’t it think it happens until we rally and suck in more retail money.
@Uncle Bucs, just noticed someone took an interest in the Oct 39 $TSN put to the tune of 1890 contracts @ .70. Thought of you. I have the 41’s. (still out of the money)
Grandpa – thanks. That’s *very* interesting… I’m having lunch and looking over the TSN chain as I dine …
I felt like this was the first day in a while when the pain trade wasn’t applicable. I think planning for the long weekend would trump sentiment in this particular state of the market. Thus the prudent move to lighten up in front of the weekend should be punished with huge upside on Tuesday. Will try to grab a weekly for one of the indexes if the setup holds.
I’m following a similar game plan tj.
I’m seeing lots of gloating and high fiving going on at the bearish
Blog sites. Seems a face ripper to the upside Tuesday would
Be the pain trade.
I concur and wouldn’t be surprised if we gap up 1-2% on Tuesday.
http://youtu.be/1iAYhQsQhSY
Good timing for the post title.
Great song.
Shorting gold here.
Geez. I just got long miners
and bought TLT
Curious why TLT now? Flight to quality trade should have already occurred. I was concerned by its lack of participation. Action in XLU and IYR lead me to believe market is pricing in Sept rate hike which implies lower TLT. Just my two cents.
Right up to 1930
Nice shennannigans at the close
Played the qqq’s for next week expiry.
Came back to put a little money on EEM into the close. Keeping 90% cash. If EEM blows through $32 without a bounce I would be surprised, given the massive panic spike lower last week.
The chart of EEM is very similar to that of RSX back in December. Back then there was an initial bounce, then a weak re-test, then RSX rallied about 40% over the next 4-5 months.
My conviction is low so not willing to commit much. That kind of a capitulation low typically is followed by some rallying.
EEM ? Money is flowing out of Int’l and into the US. We’re considered a safe haven. Trade accordingly.
I like focusing on areas that people don’t. If we get stability in the US I think the emerging markets have the ability to snap back hard.
man, SUNE is a day traders dream… if you can get on the right side. I think this has been responsible for 50% of my profits last month
Loving the location of $NYMO…Bulls will prevail next week. Good thread this week.
Enjoy the long weekend.
I thought more and decided to just hedge out my risk by buying EDZ at $54.85 after hours. I hedged 1 for 1 instead of trying to sell EEM at a loss due to a wide bid/ask spread. I realized I have no interest in having any exposure over the weekend. I’d rather enjoy my weekend than sit with any exposure to the market whatsoever. I’ll probably miss a big move but I’ve had more success having no positions on overnight. Each day has presented a ton of opportunities so being flat with a fresh mind is easier to navigate this mess.
Anyone besides me just a tad bit uncomfortable with today’s webcast sentiment poll leaning bullish for the 1 week time frame?
Got UVXY?
My suspicion is that gets crushed very soon.
Anyone like VDSI in the security space?
Security stocks crushed of late along with anything high growth related.
VDSI has a sizable short position and appears to have very limited downside from here. I am playing CYBR and think the entire space will be bought up on the next swing higher.
That’s what I am thinking. Been beaten down much harder than its peers.
Analogs revisited:
Have you considered looking at VIX analog? I think thus far it looks like Summer 2011.
2010 and 2011 both had the same VIX spikes.
I’m starting to wonder if the VIX has starting it’s trend up in the last phase of the bull like in 2006-2007. There was a significant spike in 2006 and then a couple in 2007 before the market peaked. June 2014 low held and since then that low has held.
I know you have said you thought the VIX would make a print below 10, but the original volatility index (the $VXO on stock charts) shows that June 30th 2014 actually had a lower low than the 2007 low.
disclaimer:I’m actually betting against volatility in the short term via XIV, but that doesn’t mean a higher low in the VIX at lower levels from here isn’t a possibility.
The difference is that you didn’t have a VIX panic spike in 06 or 07 remotely close to what we saw here. In fact, you didn’t see VIX at the levels we hit til fall of 2008. The volatility uptrends don’t start on panic. It is a series of smaller rallies that nobody is fearful of.
Crude traders taking advantage of light participation to wash ut a few weak hands tonight…buy the breakdown
Jeff – Looks like the 1930 level on the futures was recaptured. Not sure if its convincing enough yet. I’m just a casual observer at this point…waiting patiently to commit money to the market at this point.
Draw a trend line from aug 24th, you’ll see what was support is now resistance. About 1950 right now.
MS Upgrades FIT to overweight $58 price target…giddyup!
If Crude can recover $46, we are looking at 500+ point move in DJIA today…all indicies should close 3%+ today to confirm resumption of Bull trend.
Crude tickling $46…nice recovery. Expecting ES to explode higher thru 1950