In reference to our discussions on market/small cap seasonality in After Hours with Option Addict, here’s a cool chart to reference.
Hat tip @Mrk.
Ho, Ho, Ho…
OA
Joined Aug 2, 2009
1,847 Blog Posts
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Out last of 1/2 of daytrade +19
Would you reverse here?
No, I think this is trouble for the bulls. Just sticking to my exits.
Gotcha. That 1170 in the TF has been interesting. We’re here.
the EEM and FXI are a real concern I think. It’s an insane market which ever way you look at it!
HYG looks terrible too as expected with crude getting slammed yet again. If we go green to red here on the day in stocks…just amazing.
Volume bounce on several shorts/Puts I have are way off for the day so far.
OA – I know that sometimes on days like today, you will stalk the nonparticipants. Would the NMBL that we’ve been looking at fall into that category? I still don’t quite have the hang of identifying these guys…
Yes it would. It’s on a select list of mine that I’m looking to buy.
thanks for the LULU trade OA, great call, finally out of the swing going back to what, late august?!..will look for re-entry mid/upper 40s
So really what you’re saying is that we should trade our Decembers for the 4th week.
Took 110% out of LULU this am. Been trading this thing since the summer. Nice call OA!
Where the heck is The Fly today?
fracking for bananas
Kudos.
Out at a bar for lunch, lawyer asks me what I do for a living. When i say advisor he says— should i sell my gold, its gone down a lot? I say- – when did you buy it? He says –08. I bang head on table. Mom n pop indicator indicator still alive and well.
Thanks to the wonderful PPT, I went heaviy long , on margin, when it flagged OVERSOLD two days ago. Friendly folks @ the margins desk just cleaned me out. Thanks to all. Especially, to the PPT.
I requested that we add a “heavy on margin” indicator. Congrats.
TRLA looks good here.
Still amused by: “I can’t wade through the onslaught of shit to find the normal daily value.” Thanks OA for confirming what I said last night.
You said the same? Good! I saw 170 comments in the evening and thought…no thanks…
You probably should not admit that..
Just saying(?)
This market is going to be hearing from my lawyer. I have whiplash.
closing a number of positions here and will try and be patient as this range has to start to give way soon. Keeping the TLT though!
You still hanging onto COF calls?
I just sold them for a small loss. I’m just not convinced about this market. The chart still looks great though and if we firm up I’ll get back in.
Thanks chief! Enjoy following your posts.
having said that I can’t take my eyes off this KORS chart
OA are you in KORS?
Jan calls, yes.
Shouldn’t we be scanning for some shorts given recent history? I’m looking at CP and MANH
I’d short WUBA up a little….maybe JD?
tomorrow’s setting to be a screaming short but I’m not holding the futures overnight in this environment…hopefully there will be an entry in the morning.
Chief, did you notice shity volume on many stocks that bounced?
any restaurant picks? BKW is strong but don’t want to chase. Maybe NDLS or JACK?
CMG.
Great pic. Its first on my long list. Premiums are cheap too
bought the TZA here…have to have some skin in the game just in case.
Today’s DOW daily candle is now inverse of Tuesday’s. Maximum pain is the only market theory one needs now.
GM for a short
$N 90 Puts for Jan. Hedge against my FEYE stock
tomorrow could be a doozy.
the greedy wallstreet boyz took this thing down from the highs. looks like a set up for a squeeze as they did not need to get all their $ today. IMO.
Sold LULU at 110% gain this am, got into QQQ weekly Yolo Puts up 240% in those..
I’m not used to these gains, what is going on?
I can’t wait to become a bull again and actually pick stocks. I am thinking sometime around 2016/2017.
OA vs Bluestar…the battle rages on
Shorted the snot out of GOGO as it tagged the 50 EMA today and it dropped hard in to the close. A very nasty stick for GOGO! Is headed lower from here. Biggest bet this year&sometimes you time it perfectly.
Markets looked weak last hour. I small another round of selling coming. Does anyone here follow Elliot Waves? The EW guru, Anthony Caldero, has the top in. He is very good as what he does. Holding GOGO short and SPX puts picked up today.
not to mention the spx threw in a reversal tail today and closed near the low which isn’t inductive of a market seeing up to rally. Agree markets are setting up for next round of sells. Tomorrow gap lower and run?
Have Jan QQQ put options from yesterday. This extreme whipsaw action this week has the markings of an impending CRASH. Seen it before.
Shorted MBLY into close on the back of this move in gpro.
GPRO is all about the insider lockup expiring on 12/23. MBLY short just chart trade?
High flying IPO about to get knocked down further is the thesis.
Left side of sentiment. It looks about to hit panic phase just like twtr did. I am looking for a place to short
Love that MBLY short. Almost pulled the trigger today on thst myself but the put spread was insane. Went with SPY puts.
Bubble- I follow ew. He nailed the top target price. Also, there wS a Bradley turn earlier this week. The stars are aligned.
believe we see a tradable low of 2019/20 otherwise if that gives way….2005 here we come. IMO, believe the boyz are keeping the shorts on the ropes which is all that is needed to keep the markets moving higher. thats what we did in my prior life. Be careful.
2019.75 pivot to be exact in the overnight session me thinks….if your bottom feeding.
“He” referring to Tony Caldero of course (see his blog)
As soon as I saw the Dow, Nasdaq and SP500 all tail below their respective 20 day ema’s today, I knew it was time to get short and did so with vigor. Margined 40% for these tails are followed up by more downside. It was a trifecta today with all three indices throwing tails off the 20 ema’s. That’s not bullish.
Looking forward to tomorrow’s tale of the tape. Feel like a kid on Xmas eve sort of.
As I mentioned…check AH price, right on the pivot 2019.75. If it holds, any am dump will be a head fake, IMO, and should be bought for the rip. I will be playing two YOLOS. But what do I know.
Open question does this look buyable? P/E around 20
http://imgur.com/qNULx8e
Yes. I’ve bought into trends like this at crazier P/E’s.
OA, you gotta be onto something with buying the failed moves down. I had a position in CALA from 10.50 but I stopped out last week on the breakdown move below 9. Today, only one week later, it traded at $25.
Let’s take a handful of these and track them for the next month to see what happens.
Oil at 50 and exploration and drilling cease. Below that, the pumps are turned off, the wells are shutdown.
Then all hell breaks loose.
Are you positioned to profit from this prophecy? Bull or Bear, let’s talk about making money, man!
Beeeeee-you-teee-ful gap down in the markets this morning, as expected. SPX puts exploding this morning following yesterdays tails down off of the index 20 moving averages. Time to sit back and let nature take its course. The market will try to bounce intraday but it won’t last because there is a MAGNET below. Will not sell until these put options are up much more than this mornings tasty treat 🙂
“Will not sell until these put options are up much more than this mornings tasty treat” WTF I hope you really are a girl. Otherwise, no need to post this type shit.
OA – It’s a beautiful morn in Tucson, with a projected high of 77. I’m already outdoors taking a break with a cob full of Sunset Rum, and perusing that PPT screen. TUES catches my eye today. Looks to be coming out of that pattern we discussed yesterday.
UB – on your pipe post from yesterday – I am partial to the Solani Silver label – nice to hear from other pipe smokers out there.
Mr. Melancon – good morning. Have yet to try the Silver, but have read it’s favorable reviews. Solani is top notch imo. As for flakes, I’m also enjoying Dark Strong from Heinrich. Happy smokes to you, sir!
Is this a double secret reversal day or a triple secret reversal day?
This LULU ride continues on.
Jeff- I’m holding $45 calls. Would a good strategy be to book profits on all but 1 or 2 contracts and take delivery of some shares for a longer term hold?
This goes to $60. However you want to play…don’t let it trade under $50. Gap n’ go like X and APOL.
Amazing that neither OA nor Fly, the two main bloggers on this site, saw the fall in the markets off the top and took on tasty short positions. There were soooo many red flags. Negative divergences, uber bullish sentiment, moving averages breaking down, high flying stocks breaking down, oil crashing, etc.
Instead, they sat on their hands like deer in headlights.
Epic FAIL.
Not only did they not get short, but they continued to buy, typical of the conditioned “buy the dips” crowd. They only saw a one sided trade and that was to get long everything despite the warning signs! Huh?
Last I looked, SPY was about 3% off it’s all time high.
Maybe this was “THE” top. I don’t pretend to know.
Plenty of other things one might criticize, but not that.
If this was THE top, plenty of time to make money on the short side, don’t you think? You act like it’s over.
Seems a little soon to be lambasting folks for missing it at this point.
I bought FB, NFLX and BIDU this week, fuckface. 2 of 3 are working.
Hinged, post a pic of your trades showing you nailed it. They post all of their trades for the world to see in real time, whether they are right or wrong. Try doing that and get criticized for every move you make. Not easy. What is the next move right now mr. market wizard? What are you buying so we can make fun of you next week? Post your trades showing you are the man and nailed the top or shut the fuck up.
Let’s see if they pick up this morning’s bounce in the Q’s as a spot to get short for a ride down next week. Bounces will be sold until markets are oversold and the bearishness ramps up a lot. Not there yet.
He’s back
I mean “they’re” back. LOL
Have to agree on that one.Both of them are missing this downside.
Bearish action.
Market has spoken, we no longer need oil because we will all be living in the $FB, and be outfitted in $LULU
Like this spot for a gpro short. This upgrade could be a gift to shorts.
Picked up some calls yesterday. I will be adding to this position. Lockup expiration is already priced in and I think we see $60-$70 in Jan.
Correction: $65-$70
Gotta disagree that the lockup is priced in. I’ve seen this game before, regarding lockups. This “upgrade” looks and smells like an attempt to dump shares at higher prices. I think we will ultimately see IPO prices in GPRO ala TWTR.
The PT wasn’t even raised in the upgrade. If you want to be contrarian and basically have a thesis that too many people are bearish here because of the lockup threat then I totally get it, but I am going to take the other side here.
I would be careful shorting the momo stocks. Other sectors will play catch up and they might just flatten out.
Yeah Chief I hear you. I’m not throwing a ton of positions on here.
If this is going to be a big sell off you need to see the semi’s and bio’s participate. They are the main reason we are not much lower.
whoa
nice call on the LULU continuance in AH, im still willing to bet i get a 49 handle re-entry in this mkt environment
I’m also hoping for an entry. I was holding calls back in Sept/Oct, but never caught much of a move. Bought common in the IRA, which has done nicely. But would like to capitalize on it in the options account.
LULU is more of a long swing, i dont see options working all that well on this one, your timing would have to be perfect
This morning’s early bounce in the markets was a wonderful opportunity to get short if you already weren’t. $$$$$
Sold 1/4 my LULU to more than cover my nut.
Hey Oa – thoughts on gld / gold / jdst here? GLD looks like it may be putting in a bottom, no?
Zoom out. Looks bear flag to me.
Burn me at the stake if you must, but I am not selling any longs here.
Good for you. You show ’em. 🙂
Once again, they missed a FANTASTIC opportunity to show the SPX this morning on the bounce to the 20 ma. They aren’t paying attention. Instead, they keep trying to “get long” equities. Huh?
Puts bought this morning at now up 80% 🙂
You’re amazing. Are you accepting money to manage?
They missed a fantastic opportunity to “short the SPX”…not “show”.
This morning was a fantastic opportunity to lick my balls. But that’s OK. You still can.
FWIW, bullish percentage in energy was “2” on the close yesterday. Fly might be onto something with SLCA purchase down here…
and the FMSA has made a series of higher lows over last three days…nicely diverging from rest of group
what do you think about GOOGL here OA?
Thanks!