Another Friday Fisting in stocks…depending on which ones you own.
The divergence in performance among growth and high beta this week is very compelling. Not to mention that the market has done well absorbing a 50% haircut in oil. Should oil get bought for any reason, I’d look out above.
While the market speaks in range today, notice what’s trending. Not many expected this coming into the week, and its a behavioral change that needs to be noticed.
With the year winding down, everyone is hugging that benchmark. If things get perky, that needle will be chased.
Monday is December 15th, FWIW.
OA
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OA-not to change the subject, but wondering if you have any thoughts on CORN. I’ve been long for a while and finally seems to be entering a pocket
I do, but the ETF and futures contract are so very different. Use futures to gauge the action over the ETF.
Thanks. I’ve been watching both. Both are entering pockets.
Oil tankers FTW. FRO, TNP, NAO, TNK, NAT, DHT. Market seems to finally be waking up to this no brainier trade. Rising tanker rates + plummeting fuel costs = tanker cos wet dream. These should be trading like airlines.
Boy I noticed that move in FRO. 100% in a couple of weeks.
Aside from energy, these stocks are on my unusual volume scan. Pissed I missed this FRO. Cleared the pocket in two damn days!
Pissed I booked FRO yesterday but can’t complain. Still very long TNP TNK DHT NAT (in that order)
awesome
Added to my position in FCAU earlier today. Now heavily overweighted there. Also picked up some APA and APC in the energy related stuff. Sticking with the blue chips.
what do you think of GOOGL here OA?
Thanks
I would be buying here for 2015.
Dec 15th would be the 11th trading day!
Which is bullish for the Nasdaq/Russell. From here, it implies one down day (14th trading day) from here.
I fully expect oil to bounce. Who cares. Watch USD/JPY its over bought and reversing. So gos the yen goes US Equtiies. We are not in Kansas anymore.
Looks like that TLT really moving now.
I’m seeing a bear flag forming on the yen. Bulls need it to rip to new highs here.
I just moved a bunch of broad-market 401(k) stuff to cash. The sell off in the high yield bond market has me freaked out, and at this point, it will only take one bond default, rating downgrade, or oil producer fold to send things down. If I’m wrong, there will be time to get back in…and the best buys will be in energy. Still making some short term swing plays though.
So there’s your bottom.
Retail and eateries ripping today. Stalking IRG.
Does any chart better match the sentiment chart than the LEN quarterly over 15 years?
Sold my TZA flat. Will get back in if we have a rough close.
Also sold my Dec TLT calls +490%
I have Jan calls that I’m holding on to.
Chiefton – You’re the man! Very nice…
OA – not sure if you still watch it but ANW you recommended a while back at it is doing pretty well now. Not sure why since I just noticed it in my portfolio but it is countertrend to the oil move.
Friend that turned me onto MACK has a very large position in BEBE and thinks it is an easy double from here…
OA any thoughts on BABA? I see a decent change it gets to 115 by Jan expiration if the mkt settles down.
For better or worse, I love this stock. I think it will be an important one in 2015.
Sold that UGAZ almost at the bottom yesterday….I hope some people held it.
I actually had a stop order in that bottom ticked it at 8.35 yesterday….was not happy to see it open this morning above 9…managing risk was necessary as I was in a meeting and couldn’t monitor
I think your favorite social momo tell stock $FB is telling us something as it has shown RS throughout the week.
FB is a great signal stock.
Same here Chiefton got stopped out. Dipping the old “Toe” in here for another try at oil
EOG and EMES
Bought VSLR down here. Looks like it might be finding its bottom.
market feels like it wants higher into the close trying to find a long in the ES
Heard anecdotally that SLB laid off 55 employees today. Nothing huge, yet.
Jeff you think PKX is busted here?
No, not yet.
The EEM situation reminds me of January. Zoom out to monthly charts.
So is this a rotation out of quality into risk? Looking forward to AO tonight. I need subtitles on this one.
Sorry, what are you referring to?
Holding $UGAZ through yesterday is the only thing I’ve done right this month. Though I am happy with $GNRC and may add to my position.
TPLM is an idea in oil, big rerversal this week. i like their share structure and debt free
Great idea, thank you.
this is going to be blockbuster close. The bears have their chance to crash this thing going into the weekend. I think the bulls hang on.
Here are some more oil plays starting to take off with nice pockets over head (although I guess every oil stock has a pocket overhead..lol) $TLM, $YUMA, $CPE, $AXAS, $WRES and $MILL.
OA – Didn’t want you to think the genius of Reverend Koresh was lost on me. TUES from this morning is still looking great, which leads me to believe there’s more room to run in retail…
$ANN has treated me better in a few days than $ANGI has for months.
granpa – that gigantic green bar on the ANN chart nearly hurts my eyes. Great call. I have no explanation why I didn’t join you…
2014 – YEAR OF THE GRANPA
Thanks OA, but no it’s not, took a huge hit in LL earlier in the year. Everything else is small compared to that mistake. Bad management. No ones fault but my own.
Short SPX/QQQ/YELP/GOGO for the win.
FB and TWTR both unable to hold their whopping 1.5% gains today! Not a good indicator for social media! Remember, Yellen even said recently that the social media sector in the stock market was OVERVALUED. Go ahead, bet against the Fed Chief!!!!! 🙂
The sheep still far too bullish on the markets here, despite the volatility/weakness. Lower prices ahead
“There will be blood”
“Whopping 1.5% gains today!” The market is down more than 1% today!
While you folks are busy buying, the SPY is losing it’s all important, last line of defense, 50 EMA. Tsk Tsk Tsk.
Dec. puts exploding here heading in tot he close. Boom.
VIX isn’t showing that much volatility, though. A spike above 30 into the close would be concerning though.
Let me add $CHKR which paid a .50 divident last quarter.
Got puts? $$$$$$$$$$$$$
http://scharts.co/1soCzMS
IBM is single handily destroying the DOW
forced liquidation.
these last 15 mins could be rough
I have zero hedges and somehow I am still green overall today.
same here. All day my $BABA $GILD $BIIB calls have been flat/green.
Fuck this market.
+1, on margin.
I grabbed some XIV here @ 30.10
Sold SPY hedge too for decent profit… Still have underwater TZA position from awhile ago though
Jeff, have you pulled up SINA in your searches? It’s falling wedge is looking really nice also.
Also, WLT looks interesting here. Has stayed above it’s October low with all the energy carnage and has a nice looking bottom rounding out this week for a trade…
I wonder if we are going to start getting the UVXY perma-holders posting.
I’m back to pyramiding gains here. We’re about to get a violent move that will last weeks and present ample opportunity to roll gains upon gains…or just lose your base bet. Not for the faint of heart.
http://scharts.co/1soCzMS
FOR-THE-WIN 🙂 🙂 🙂
I bought MBLY 40 calls today. Great closing action. No panic here. I bought EOG calls. It did not make new lows and continues to hold up. oil has to bounce soon overdone. If you were in social media today, the market did not affect you clearly. That should be a sign. I still hold some puts.
Jeff I must say I love your ability to have the one stock flying high on a shit day. Today it was lulu. Earlier in the year it was Fslr (that $20 one day move was amazing) and X.
Still like Lithia Motors, LAD here. Entered at 71 last month
OA – I posted a message for you in the AHWOA chat.
Oasis Petroleum Inc.(NYSE:OAS) – This one looks good. Stop below today’s low $10.64.
Following your seasonality chart with an inebriated attitude, I bought calls for $AMZN, $BABA, and $GOOGL for next week’s rampage up. Have a good weekend Jeff.
Tired of Losing,
This Guy
“Seasonal chart”. Really? I’ll bet none of those times saw a total collapse in oil prices during such times. Past has no relevance here…sorry.
Energy prices collapsed this much in 1998.
This weeks action, violent swings in either direction ending with a deep sell off at the close on a Friday…foretells of a crash type scenario on Monday. Perfect setup especially since Joe Sixpack continued to buy the dips. Have a great weekend.
http://www.moneynews.com/MKTNews/Market-Collapse-Finance-Stocks/2013/03/01/id/492699/
http://www.moneynews.com/MKTNews/Market-Collapse-Finance-Stocks/2013/03/01/id/492699/
Absolutely perfect timing with this headline! 🙂
03/01/2013 is “perfect timing”? Lol – you do realize the date is in the URL, right?
BARRONS headline this week. Classic
https://mobile.twitter.com/hmeisler/status/541221344075984899
Granpa – I dropped a pic for your Gravatar library in the AHWOA chat last night. http://ibankcoin.com/afterhours/chat/
Got it love it
Very good. Thanks for letting me know!
So, Santa may not be dead after all.
I remain 150% invested in inverse ETF (SH). Anyone buying stocks here on the long side is nuts. Next week = moar selling.
http://scharts.co/1BHis4K
Noice. Sentiment also way elevated at 35% spread.More bulls than bears even though markets pulled back. Gap&Run lower monday????
For all the “non believers” in Bradley Turn dates, this ones for you. Your last chance to get out before this next leg lower was around noon on Friday. Sorry
http://bradleysiderograph.com/2014-turn-dates-sp500/
That’s pretty darned accurate. Thanks for link. Glad I went to cash last week.
What is it about so many bears wanting to prove to the world they are so right?
I truly think it’s because people believe calling “the top” and beating their chest is more important then catching the next big runner… (Full disclosure, I’m speaking from experience… reformed with OA’s help). The argument is that Bulls have been conditioned the “Buy the Dip” from the last 3 years… I argue Bears have also been conditioned by the last 15 years that the next collapse will happen ANY DAY NOW!!! That if you catch the top it will make up for all the missed upside… IMO, the Bull Market continues until that mentality is changed.
Market is “properly fuckef” now given Friday’s candle.
This market seems ripe for a rally. Bulls stopped out and scared Bears piling into short positions. Oil at the height of discouragement. Year end seasonality factors. This week will be interesting.
Market cannot rally with collapsing oil. Too much damage globally.
Saudi oils minister just ensured continued global rout in oil and stock markets. He said they will will continue to let oil drop and will not do anything to stabilize it.
Blood bath in the markets tomorrow and it’s a nice feeling being on the right side of the trade! Heavy (for me) in the December put options SPY. Its the Xmas rally for bears!
We’ll see tomorrow…
Poll has 28% voting oil headed below $40. Majority say below $50.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/vote-how-low-will-oil-prices-fall-2014-12-12
Bought UVXY @ 26. Stop at 24.9 –
moved stop to 26.5
Stay short…bears in control 🙂
The shift in control clue was on Friday. Was fortunate to get a bounce this morning for opp. to buy some puts in SPX. Up nicely from an hour ago!
Short the Q’s here this morning on the bounce attempt for a ride down to Nasdaq 4600 level. Change of trend is in place………bounces are quickly sold. Oil headed lower too.
I’ve been tracking ticker OIL as my guide to markets. Hitting another 52 week low as I type after trying to catch a bid this morning. Saudis want lower oil and lower oil they shall have. PPT games won’t work here and QE is over.
CRUSHING BULL NUTZ.
Bam
All the IBC seasonality folks stunned…lol.
Ho! Ho! Ho!
major support here on most indices. If these levels don;t hold this will be a December for the history books.
buckle up
Everyone’s capitulated already. That’s why it’s so quiet here this morning
No no no. They are busy puking cause they were counting on a rally today. Problem with that is Fridays candles in the markets. Beautiful bounce this am, allowing for another chance to add sum juice to short positions. Ho Ho Ho!
Where’s rangar at? Love seeing his shit talking on days like this
Apparently oil was the asset most juiced up by QE. It’s a bold new world without the government printing presses.
Bounce should come markets are getting into OS territory. Except Russell it just looks like shit here.
“Bounce should come….”
Conditioned, dip buying fools still don’t get it. Oil oil oil oil Hehehe
Pardon me for interrupting here, gentlemen. I do believe it’s almost time for a proper market shagging to the tune of 40 handles or more. That is all. Carry on and short on.
Sorry, OA, but you are offering for your followers another toxic coctail.
Everyone of those stocks we bet on is green today, except GPRO. They are holding up since last Friday. Awesome call, me.
OA, what do you think about this relative strength in $AAN?
If my bro-on-law likes it, you have to short it.
The Aaron’s bottom.
bears are about to get felched
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Felch