New highs in the Dow and S&P have been met with disbelief and anger, as traders gathered together armed with torches and pitchforks to cast stones, spit upon, and hail worthless call option positions at their trading terminals.
The speed has picked up significantly in the Dow and S&P today, fresh off a ‘overbought’ signal on the DIA….
The Russell is now back at it’s multi-month neckline, trying hard to hold as individual stocks deteriorate. Go easy on the long side until you can identify any sort of initiative buyer. On the flip side, be even more cautious shorting the breakdown. This has been the worst trade to initiate over the last several years, with the exception of 2011.
This still remains a truly unique situation here as I’ve never really come across a scenario where two highly correlated instruments (SPY/IWM) can yield both a relatively overbought and relatively oversold signal simultaneously.
Have some insurance here, but at the very least think safety first. It’s hard to watch so many engage in battle with significant portions of capital when raising cash guarantees a place in line to play in easier conditions.
OA
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Long sandwiches
Here you go, cheese – this bear wants moar sandwiches… still long? http://youtu.be/FBdLKFyfkLE
still short market / long bonds and big cash pile
Wise man.
Just lucky I think.
Short Hillary Clinton.
http://pjmedia.com/blog/video-young-hillary-supporters-struggle-to-name-her-achievements/
Chess in his daily recorded commentary has talked about the “violent indecision” of the market and the high level of apathy at “both ends of the tape”. It strikes me as unusual. I don’t recall this sense of pessimism and bearishness at the top end of the range near highs on the major indices. We have record margin debt coupled with record short interest at a time of divergence between small high beta and large value. We have had no counter trend rally in those names. Something has to give.
I bought EEM (LT), GOGO (Mid Term) and JCP (ST).
since when is a 30 basis points move above previous high a breakout? the spx isn’t a momo stock. use a thicker pencil
New highs = not a breakout. I see.
You learn something new every day here.
.30bps on an index is not a breakout in my book. that’s why it was so lethargic and volume was tepid, 30bps is nothing especially with realized vol so low. but please keep using tautologies to further your case.
It happened in November. Happened all year, actually. But feel free you use my pencil anytime you want.
Plus, I was only pointing out negative sentiment in a rising market, dickhead.
weak bounce so far, I’m trying a long in GC 1295.5.
What about them miners? DUST?
Dust to ~32 if it goes.
bot some AKG today, just a dab for spec.
TLT losing steam. JNPR holding up.
sell -1.5 dumb trade. Yeah DUST looks good it’s just so hard to pull the trigger on anything more than a daytrade.
Dow and S&P kinda staying down, while RUT is subtly inching up… Also, that crummy FRO if all things is green today, which makes me look over at BALT and say “hmmm”.
I love the look of DRYS too.
if this level holds may get some buyers
Pulled the trigger on next weeks IWM 108 calls at 1.2 this AM. Starting to outperform SPY.Hoping it keeps up so I can phoenix out of the hole i dug for myself.
this is going to be quite a afternoon. This market is a totally mind fuck. I would be careful to not let it suck you in yet as it will probably spit you right out.
buy NQ 3558.5 (daytrade)
Breadth does not say buy here, but that is a long tail developing in the RUT.
FSLR would be my top pick.
FSLR at $60 is what we’ve all been waiting for. No-one said it was going to feel good doing it…
I held it through earnings like an idiot.
C’mon give Russell a hammer, please!
Just did buy $FSLR, the call options are cheap , impl. vol. is cheap.
$NVLX is in a narrow trading range for a while now…some news and it should move
out +6. Still no conviction to hold but this is a start
OA any thoughts on YELP? I know its crazy but some quiet days in it even with all the other chaos going on. It’s really tempting me if we don’t crash
Surprised to see these stocks going positive. Not at lows with the NQ and TF. Divergence.
$RUT looks like a double bottom on YTD chart. Picked up LNKD Jun 155 Calls. LNKD & YELP both sporting inverse head and shoulder patterns.
Definitely seeing some positive divergences in IWM and QQQ. SINA looks decent
Interesting the IWM leading SPY and DJ-30 in forming a hammer on teh daily. wonder if it sticks through close…
thanks, CTRP looking good to. I haven’t bought a stock in 2 weeks, a little scary to pull the trigger!
nice hammer on $HD, like it here…
youre not alone, daytrading not my forte, so im left with small allocations to ideas i want long term
$FB looks to be consolidating.
Long FSLR Jun 65 Calls
Seeing lots of tails. As bad as it looked earlier, could it finally be hammer time in many of these high beta names?
Let’s hope the Einhorn gang will cover in May and go away. Maybe…just maybe sentiment is negative enough to give us a counter- trend rally or at least a short rotation to bigger issues on the S&P500 (the Tepper play – I suspect he was short before he shared his worries last night)
I read somewhere he is still bullish on tech and still has a ton of long exposure.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-06/einhorn-says-bullish-on-tech-clarifies-bubble-call.html
OA, here is my trying to make sense of this all. Big money wanted out of bonds, rather than dumping them and sending rates soaring and slamming the brakes on the economy, they sell of the stocks with little to no earnings, this creates fear/flight to safety, drives a bid under bonds and frees up liquidity, they get out as retail gets in and gets cheap shares of all the former leaders and growth stocks.
Very interesting theory.
I find this theory interesting as well. I truly had wondered the following to myself this morning – it seems the dip of late Jan/ early Feb kind of masked the rotation that was in the works. What rotation is being masked by this pullback…?
Energy (XLE)? Real estate (IYR)?
elizamae – you’ve got the right idea. I’m thinking maybe the last two weeks could be a smokescreen to rotate OUT of the likes of those two…. but into what? Harder to find the recipient by price. I need to root around looking at volume.
Emerging Markets
https://twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/464378857072504832/photo/1
OA, I hope that Tepper is bullish tech. It just seems a lot of what plays on CNBC is theater for retail investors to react to when the bigger move by the hedge fund is already in play. I suspect the apathy on both sides of the tape as Chess puts it is a lot of coattail shorting by retail investors following the whales. If that is so, could it portend an unexpectedly vibrant rally at some point. It may be wishful thinking on my part.
Let me find that quote from him. Give me a few.
A rally in the Russell and Comp high beta names that is
Gudenaev: ditto. Interesting.
Emerging Markets are being rotated into as are material stocks/energy. Even though Energy had a terrible first quarter with estimates. That cold winter messed em all up. TLT has to be singing its swan song? CAMP/CYNO/FEYE are my three stooges right now.
GG- long for tomorrow. Chart ready to pop.
Cheap options
Great discussions here and I can see the above theories panning out. Also, I think when einhorn “clarified” his tech bubble call, he and his hedge fund buddies might’ve already covered their shorts and bought the blood.
short GC 1294.3
bought NQ 3556
closed the GC flat.
Shaping up to be a nice day!
Any chance someone can post a quick recap of yesterday over in the After Hours chat?
I just updated. For some reason, it saved, but didn’t post. I had no idea – my fault.
unclebuccs, i went straight to vimeo and searched for OA and the video was there to view. worked for me last night
@chiefton, what u mean nice day? R u short?
OA, did you use this week’s big dip in solar names to buy? Or you think there’s more room to downside
Did you see my post above?
I read every post you put up. I’m sorry, maybe i’m missing something, but I don’t see how the post answers my questions. but its ok, carry on.
My comment above said I just bought some FSLR. Sorry, thought you might have seen that.
important spot here for the NQ. If we don;t get a push I might bail.
Seeing lots of put action on FSLR Jun 55’s. GL to all on this trade, I’m freackin gun shy right now
looking good, feels like it could be a buyers afternoon.
Bot GG here. I really like this aversion setup. < 10 posts on here since the open? It's like post apocalypse in here. WTF.
still maintaining a long bias for the rest of day but it’s getting tougher!
Everyday a battle. Every tick I watch, I flip flop. So stupid.
+1
yeah its a crazy game. I’m finding it hard to even look past the end of the day! The only positive for me with this market is my day trading has improved. I really think we rally into the close, are you leaning long into the weekend?
Yep
I hate the quiet. Like to know sentiment. You guys are my gauge.
dave, I was playing the RUT in discouragement phase with leverage this week, but these last two days have cast a shadow over that thesis. When we were at these levels in November and February, market bounced next day and more. Not today.
Dip buyers have not been rewarded for some time in this space. Every move here in the last 2 weeks have told me to trade less and watch.
Thanks for the comment Jacked. I am playing it safe right now. For example I bought PGR. I have shorts in WDC and FSL. Easy to manage charts are all I’m considering now. Tight consolidations that haven’t had much market reaction. (GG) 1-1.5 % stops. Short leashes. Saved me many times. (SCTY) yesterday.