February expiration is almost in the books and it can’t come soon enough. For the love of time decay, this has been my worst monthly expiration cycle since 2011.
I started off the year on pace to set personal records. By mid Jan I was up nearly 25%, with positions on in stocks that were going to rip out the gates this year. Suddenly, out of nowhere, the market sells off. Normally this does not concern me, as we seem to ride out the dips trading stocks with low correlations to the market. We seem to always have a handful of big wins each cycle too, which help pay for the 3-5 (on average) positions that expire worthless each month. This month, no monster winners, just a handful of positions expiring worthless.
This month, I have 9.
I can’t exactly recall the last time this has happened. Not in the last two years anyway. And what’s interesting, several of these were profitable. The others I was right on the price movement. But in EVERY situation, I was wrong about time.
Today I will watch several worthless positions leave my screen, no longer serving as a constant reminder of good risk gone bad. This will help me to move on, mentally, without an account full of static reminders of what I could have, should have, or would have done differently.
Needless to say the big gains I worked hard for this year have nearly all diminished. The last week and a half has helped me to get back into the green for the year. I’m in a state now where I am hungry. I have a tendency to make up for drawdowns quickly and am done fucking around for 2014. Time to get things rolling again.
Here’s where I am at right now:
Calls: KBH, JASO, TSL, LULU, TWTR (March Options)
Last night in After Hours with Option Addict, we discussed CACQ, NOW, Z, PHM, BX and a few others that are trading well. Let’s move forward in putting February behind us.
OA
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+1
Jeff, any plans to try the YGE 7s again?
I like the “done fucking around” part… This is my month to minimize or just straight eliminate bad entries.
Options can be a friend to you.
LMFAO
haha good one fly
LOLOLOLOL
I think I came aboard here at a rough time, but it’s truly been a learning experience and technically it was all risk capital lost. I’ve learned a lot but haven’t even put a dent in what’s still out there to know.
I’m just going to figure the value of the experience nearly offsets the losses. I still have an excited outlook.
Sorry to hear. I am normally in much better form.
I think if you applied a chart of blog comments over the last 6 months, despite going through highs and lows, its not just me that is having a rough go this month.
I know you do great things and I’m excited to see where the rest of the year goes. You nailed it when you said “Today I will watch several worthless positions leave my screen, no longer serving as a constant reminder of good risk gone bad.” It’s exactly my line of thought.
I look at it as a reminder to stay sharp moving forward.
I’m a college basketball fan, and have been watching an undefeated team squeak out some close wins lately, only to take their first loss to a less talented team lately. For most teams, that lesson serves as a turning point to beat the shit out of every task for the remainder of the season.
Stay hungry.
Those Syracuse had some amazing victories. Now they can fall back on…”well, the pressure is off” hoping my homestate Shockers can keep it rolling…I’ll concede they don’t play near the competition as other top teams.
As a UofM fan that stayed hungry for YEARS while we were ineligible for the NCAA tournament after our big wins, I feel I am well prepared.
Keep your head up, Dutch. I got involved here a bit before you, so I got to see how great this group was in normal times. One thing for sure, this group will find the trade eventually.
I’m merely focused on position sizing and my pre-trade routine (ins, outs, finding the most reactive options, etc.) Good luck!
Thanks. I love the crowd here and I’m definitely looking forward to soaking up as much knowledge and I can leech from you guys.
as I can*
+1
this month fucking SUCKS. i feel like i got spanked for talking too much shit and gloating in January….my only saving grace was top ticking my sell of angi options at 19.80
that was no small feat too!
If I would’ve topped ticked that ANGI sell I’d have an extra 10% in my current account.
anyone like $BAC here?
I got in Mar calls 2 days ago… Still like it
I’m still puzzled over why my order didn’t fill…
followed in with you…but with Apr calls. If I even get a sniff of 17 or 16, i’ll be pulling some off the table.
I think it makes a big move next week went with next week 17’s @ 0.02 yolo trade
if we like CACQ, when the dust settles on earnings in prep for the world cup, we revisit WBAI
Agree with OA completely. This month has been one of the most frustrating ever
I’m in that camp of having a rough beginning to 2014 but I enjoy and learn from the OA video’s very night. Well done sir. I tip my hat to you. We’ll rebound and will be popping bottles and making it rain before the year is over.
Agreed
so far the guys selling you all these options are making it rain.
temporary
I wouldn’t say that. When you think how they position, its like getting paid a dividend.
To “make it rain” selling options, it would only take one loss to blow you off the face of the earth.
OA do you ever sell options or put on spreads? cause all I have seen is just buying options.
He’s really nailed some quick jumping long stock picks lately
Only when premiums are rich. They haven’t been rich in 3 years.
ok
Barnes and Noble is why. The old fart writing 18’s to pick up that dime just got bitch smacked.
Generally speaking, OA avoids spreads because it caps his upside gains. Since his style is “anticipating the breakout”, he is always looking for MASSIVE upside gains (we aim for 2 baggers, but hope for returns in the 1000’s of percent).
That said, there is certainly no reason not to take an OA idea and apply a spread to it. Some in here (new proud Papa Matt_Bear comes to mind – and I think also Sandwich) use spreads to either mitigate risk or cheapen up an expensive option.
And certainly with spreads, the higher IV’s we’ve been seeing lately can make them profitable in their own right, if you can catch good strikes.
Not this month certainly, but generally in a quarter there will be 2 or 3 “monster” trades where many of us in here vie to time our exits to see who can beat 1200%, 1800%, 4200% (extreme example). Just know on those trades you will likely be capped at 300% to 500%. On the other hand, you will have lost far LESS than the group on options that expired OTM or worthless.
I am just realizing I have 9 (12 if you count the BS yolos I did this week) options expiring worthless for the month.
I believe I had 15 expire worthless last month… I guess that means progress.
Me – 8+2 (including the TWTR YOLO)
I have to echo what everyone’s saying. The year started great, now not so great. But OA has given me confidence that I can weather this market. My two main strategies for now are small position sizes and stock for anything $10 or under.
I must confess that after investing literally hundred of hours learning the OA trading style and opportunity identification, I really have lost all confidence trading this market. It almost seems like the old rules don’t apply right now.
Breakouts that crumble because of some dickwad analyst, FED announcements, social media hype driving IV through the roof etc., I’m almost to the point that if a trade doesn’t work in 3-4 days, I want to take it off because i know there’s a whammy waiting just around the corner to totally destroy the trade.
Based on January, I had high hopes for this month. Between she who will not be named, yet another failure on FSLR and some miscellaneous bad trades, my account has been set back to November levels.
Being on a spouse-imposed speculation budget, I can’t simply plow an unlimited amount of risk capital into new trades, even knowing that’s the only way to claw back.
Frustrating…..
Trade confidently, Ian. You and others helped me with that CZR trade in January that gave me that first hit of what options could do. It’ll come back, we gotta find the trade. It’s not over…http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8lT1o0sDwI
Thanks for the kind words, Rabbit. Yeah, when the market is working right, I can make the right calls. Operative word here is WHEN.
The “when” part is only temporary, Lan. Like someone told me – “If” is the much bigger hurdle.
We don’t have to worry about the “if” here. This group can trade with any other group I’ve been around.
It’ll get back, when we all least expect it to. Lengthen the time frame, shorten the strike, take fewer positions.
i feel like every feb position i hold is being pinned 50 cents to a dollar out of what I need to get out alive. FSLR, YY, LNKD.
GRPN confirming a double top breakdown on 100 million in volume?
Add 2 major downgrades and (at last count) 9 seeking Alpha articles basically echoing the theme of “told you so”. I saw this morning new revised targets on the stock of $6 and $4 respectively.
Volume pocket working in reverse to 6… 🙁 not sure if i should hold my position or bail..
Feels like the same as what BYD did to us last year…
KBH doing half “bloop” right now (up).
BKS reminding me what a good idea it was to sell early.
But even so, without the benefit of hindsight, would you REALLY have held it all the way to today ?
actually yeah. he probably would have. it’s been in the money for 4 days so not much pain at all downside wise.
I sold ACAD early today….LoL, the grass, it can be so green at my neighbors house while mine is brown
Wow… I sold the 25’s like a biach @ 1.00
OA, any thoughts on $SALE?
I must be living right– holding calls in SWY and BKS!
BKS, you’re killing me!
The way I see it, trading option is like training a tiger. If you do a good job, the tiger is your friend; even though, you can get hand chewed off if you are not careful with your pet.
Thus, I try to use option sparingly. I believe the best time to use option is when you see a deer running right across your face. You feel the air rushed by you, you feel the rumbling on the ground… Without hesitation, you let your tiger loose for the chase.
In other words, when I see a stock acting well and start to think of adding size, I’ll see it at the best time to buy option.
But these type of “intuition” doesn’t often; thus you leave the tiger alone.
Thanks for sharing.
Z
Thank you for your Zen.
january started to be promising after looking back to the big profitable trades in december everybody had in mind ,
the majority was extremely bullish and did not protect there portfolios to the downside , what i learned in these 3 months trading again options is avoid any yolo trades ,they may work for oa
or any other sharp trader not for me ,
lowering the strike and go out further one month keeps your mind a bit more in balance , looking forward for better trades like the one that should not be named or grpn – if you where long !
I’m done with yolos…. I’m 0 for the last 6.
OA, didn’t you roll out to March w/ BKS?
Said I would…
The ultimate reward for succesful option traders (NSFW – Barely)
http://www.dorothystratten.com/Alan_Houghton_04.html
based on many of the posts here, I’d say we’re in the discouragement phase of the sentiment cycle.
Hang in there, keep taking good trades when they’re there and we’ll work our way out of this.
Personally, I’m taking a break to watch some Olympic hockey.
Go Canada!
USA! USA! USA!
They get to fight for the Bronze, and they should definitely get it. They played a great game but couldn’t get through the Canadian defense.
Canada for Gold!
Sweden will make it very tough for them.
Price for PM!
Couldn’t catch the game since Im at work today, and I knew I wouldn’t be able to avoid the score so I didn’t bother to record it. From the looks of the stats of the boxscore, it seems like the US just couldn’t solve Price.
I’m still waiting this afternoon for ibankcoin asset management to tender an offer for 51% stake of GRPN…any chance we can hit the wires on that one…say, in the next 2 hours?
clearly joking…no need to pull a Lebed here. according to wikipedia that guy is still actively trading.
fok GRPN!
toilet still flushing 120 million volume
INO sold it all 3.18 fucking bullshit market..take the win
you sold it on a multi month breakout?
too pissed to piss away more gains.
regarding INO …I hope it rips higher for everyone in it
gs right @ the fib extension , good trade
I stuck my toe in on Mar 9’s for grpn, not feeling too good about it.
Finally got my JASO’s filled… Pretty happy with the entry
Well played, sir
Thank you sir… I will sell if theres another 10%+ pop but I’m hoping for a slow and steady move to $13.90
Sandwich, I’m looking at March $11s – you?
Same here, got in at .45
*applause* I’m in, but not nearly as good as your entry.
Looks like KBH is going to pin. Penny in either direction and I’ll own it.
Damn
Wish I held PDCE thru earnings… Got to hold all your positions thru earnings if you hold one…. I did hold SONS and GRPN which wasn’t too bad
looks like i’ll be holding GRPN forever now
It’s going to be annoying having those 11 and 12 march calls on my books for the next month. Might just dump em so I don’t have to look at them. Of course I’m sure the FB buyout offer at $20 would come the next day…
My Sentiment exactly. it is amazing the number of comments in your blog. that shows how many folks listen to what you have to say. I already put my FSLR screw up behind me and only looking forward to better more profitable trades.
SNTA, at your own risk. Not really the best spot on fears of buying the bloop…nevertheless, a little higher and it could start moving faster. Place a stop if you must. Volume drying up as it maintains price.
I order RSOL to run into the bell.
i dumped RSOL because i got tired of waiting on it
I’d pick that back up if I were you
F it. Bot FEYE and RSOL.
Took my 50% gain in JNPR over the last two days. Probably more willing to take smaller gains on breakouts for a short time. Still think we get a bit of pullback here…
My good day went to not so good… My ANR entry was 5% lower in stock price from current price, IV looks good but yet my option is down 10%… WTF
can today end already????!!!
education stocks absolutely on fire today…thanks to STRA…but hard to find anything actionable. maybe time for COCO to get off its you know what.
With all you guys on a it being a tough Feb .Gonna focus on better entries.Patience and keeping my fn gains. SUNE treating me well still and look at ACAD.Finally popped.
this mkt is gonna shake all the nervy hands out before it really moves
That’s been the sole purpose of Q1. Screw retail traders out of money, confidence and positions… go up without them all.
IDRA 15% today, congrats longs. Best stock position I ever opened last year. I owe a big thanks here. Hopefully others here can toast to this one as well. Enough about Jan and Feb could have been’s, I’m with OA, let’s get rolling. Losers always whine about their best; winners go home and…
yoshii11 I feel that APOL , COCO and CECO are actionable here
I traded like a rank amateur this week. I’m going out now to drink copious amounts of scotch and take a cigar. Indeud.
Brutal, brutal month. After closing out Jan @ +26%… I managed to lose money on just about every trade I made in Feb. Today, I watched PRAN, and ANGI, calls expire completely worthless (no bid what so ever). Looking forward to putting this month behind me, big time. My only winners, thus far, in Feb, was AMBA (thanks to that retarded SA article), and XIV. To date, I’ve never realized such poor performance in this short a period of time.
Check out Jeff Augen’s books on trading volatility spikes right before big events like earnings. It’s pretty easy to make 10%+ gains with relatively little risk by buying straddles/strangles, RICs, etc. a few days to a few weeks before earnings and then selling the inevitable volatility spike before earnings.
In terms of the whole year, if you gotta have a bad month, February seems like the logical choice… it is the shortest.. so see, well done OA!
6 here, the reason it stings so bad is they weren’t losers they were poorly managed. Acct looking good now though.
Was a super busy week, so couldn’t comment here much.
Feb exp winners – calls in PANW, PCYC, QCOM and XONE
Losers – PANW puts and TSL puts
KNDI…big runner going on now…we caught a flyer
I bought YELP March $100 calls. Let’s see what happens
BINGO!!!
Very nice
In CLF Mar 24’s for .26
bought VRNG Mar 4.50s for .14
anyone like X here near bottom of range? In about a 4 month old descending wedge or at the neckline of a really deformed head & shoulders
on a longer timeframe chart, I can see the long idea. Right now, I don’t know…but maybe that’s just micromanaging an entry if you are truly thinking long term. consider AKS, and I think NUE warrants a look.
thanks for your thoughts Yoshi. Was just thinking about the next bloop up in X not really long term. I’m in AKS Mar 7s since 2/10 and hoping for today to mark the low or cut it.
Time to dust the February dirt off and start fresh again.
KBH March 20.
Also, back into long HXM stock..
I’m feeling some heat from recent entry in VJET…hope that turns around later this week. SNTA from Friday’s entry, though, is very promising. Maybe later this week it breaks through that 7 resistance. If it fails and does a retest, look to load or dump based on that retest action. can’t go wrong with a ‘pharmaceutical’ in the name and a ticker that reminds you of Santa. 🙂
Or today.
VJET is going to pop between now and Mar expiry.
GME consolidation looks so tasty here.
Tried to get into the march 38’s under 36, but couldn’t get filled.
looks like our RSOL changed tickers to RGSE
Took a nibble on SFUN down here
is this the day NFLX breaks outta that range?
and getting eerily close on KEYW. anything under 18 very buyable if you get that chance. Its just a matter of time on this one…stock would be a safer bet in case it takes more time. One of these days it will be well up over a $1 on the fast move. downside is 16, but I don’t think we’ll see that play out unless ‘the market’ dumps.
OA, do you think there will be some sort of precursor to a big move on all of the homebuilders? They are pretty quiet right now, TOL announces soon, and HOV is next week.