I went long RSOL and picked up ROVI Feb calls.
More later,
OA
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Joined Aug 2, 2009
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that was an awesome ROVI buy. You nailed the low, it was gone before i even got back to my desk. hat tip, sir.
nailed CUDA as well
watch or put stops on this one..imo…as trading volume is relatively thin and this one can move very fast. I’ve played it but prefer panw for the time being. for now feye is not participating in the daily move.
what do you think of APC? looks like its setting up nicely
FIO in beast mode. my account is up a metric ton. washed out all of last week’s horrible beatdowns and bad decisions. logged them all and pinning to my wallpaper. sheesh.
I went with some NIHD Feb 4 calls @10am this morning. Figure 4-ish by mid Feb.
Ditto.
GILD is killing it and ramp earnings. Stoked!!!
DECK!
Can anyone refresh me on the target?
Middle of the next reference point is ~84.75-85$
Scanning the higher priced stocks for setups. Here’s what I have so far:ANDE,XEC,CXO,HY
Added a few more.
http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&t=ANDE,XEC,CXO,HY,OPEN,EGN,GCO,KALU
KNDI gapped up hasn’t done much since near the open. 5 minute chart starting to pinch for last hour, par. sar positive all day.
Went short at 12.18. Stop HOD need it to break 12.14 to turn 5 min par sar neg.
Anyone looking at MU here? I am still holding Jan 31 22 calls, trying to get a grasp on where to exit this thing. Yes, I had a lack of a trade plan here.
Based on the last 3 breakouts, the average move has been between 40-60% from start to finish. This would put the target for this breakout around 32 but it could take a couple months to get there.
the most recent high of 24.5 might be a good short term target…
Thanks Juice, much appreciated. Can’t use TOS here at work, makes charting difficult.
OA, like OXBT here?
I was hoping for more of a snap to the upside for my account on a day like today. Elevator down, stairs up.
QIHOOOOO!
QIHU is a crazy ride isn’t it?
It has given my high blood pressure and psoriasis…. What’s your PT for this beast? I’m thinking 100 and 105 for a stretch. I think it will go much higher but my calls expire next Friday.
Yeah, I’m looking for the $100-roll and see how it acts from there. I’m almost ready to get into some options, but this one I’m in with stock so no expiry for me to deal with.
Taking was the equivalent of taking the elevator from the parking garage to lobby where we started. Tomorrow we take the elevator from the lobby to the penthouse.
I wish we were able to edit comments.
Note to self: proofread.
Lol I think people get it
that volume pocket stuff has been a strategic add to my scan setups OA, helped me target good spot on this PETX, thx
the question is, can we actually get 2 days in a row of green? Tomorrow will be telling
@Rajusus
Well, you asked me about PXD last night in AH chat. Given the day, I obviously gave you some incredibly BAD advice.
Sorry about that.
I know we all get used to the red/green colors on our charts.
But there is nothing so lovely as the LED style blue my screen turns when an option goes “in the money”.
My KBH 19’s just went blue – my favorite color.
blue LED’s are “all the rage” right now.
Autumnal – X Trade
SPOW 30
Stretch Target 32
Entry for Feb 27’s – 0.50
Exit at SPOW – 3.25
Exit at Stretch – 5.05
Entry for Feb 28’s – 0.35
Exit @ SPOW – 2.27
Exit @ Stretch – 4.06
Returns:
550.00% 910.00%
548.57% 1060.00%
Awesome work, Lan. Now if we can just get a decent fill.
what’s the reason for the play on $X? if you don’t mind me asking.
keep in mind i’ve been out of the loop for past 3 days and might have missed something from the AHWOA sessions.
@Twinkies – volume pocket, upgrade this week by MS, and high profile mention. It’s a CRM style trade – it’s gonna get there, just a matter of timing.
Also – saw your note in the chat – no I didn’t post a link yet. The market has had me scrambling and it dropped to number 18 on my list of things to do. The reason it’s taking a while is I have to write an instruction sheet to navigate the online lookups in Excel. It’s not straight forward because of the way Yahoo finance returns stock quotes on a string inquiry.
with respect to $X, i’m assuming you are talking about the $30 to $40 pocket.
With the elevated volume as of late, it appears like there might be some “knife-catching” involved in the trade entry. Are you still in “stalk mode” right now?
I believe lan is in the trade. those would be entries for yesterday or the day before.
yeah… i suppose if i dial down the time frame there is a nice little 5 day consolidation that could be used as a trigger. not a bad idea, if you have a tight stop.
Jeff entered the trade @ 24 ish on Monday @ 0.48 (Feb 27’s). I’m still in stalk mode cuz I couldn’t get filled.
Thanks for the dets lanforce… I missed Monday but entered on the pullback today.
he got in on Monday? seems like a scary time to enter the trade. i guess that’s what makes him the master.
I think ZU is great here. It’s back to test the balance point after the b/o from the triangle and IPO price’ish. The best part as with any good pick is good risk management – stop just under $40.25
Now I just need some capital…
The upper PT though…new highs or some average of recent moves, maybe a $3-4 move?
If I had cash I’d buy ZU and XIN this second (feb calls of course)
Lol, yup XIN looks great here too! Even easier risk management than ZU.
That ZU looks really good here I agree but that bid-ask spread on the options is way too wide for me. Be careful that.
Agreud… You should have seen the spread 2 weeks ago
Eyes on WYNN for earnings AH. Will boost those CZR weeklies I’m sitting on. This was my attempt at short dated.
+1
kschep, you’re wrong. I am the real one, this is just getting ridiculous.
Read the quality of language I use in my posts. Would I really use the word “turd” ?
Moreover, “fuck stick” as an insult? come on, I am much too educated to use such beligerent language.
hey, its the real me…somebody is cloning you, me, and who knows who else. nothing but respect for you…and I almost posted something to the same effect about the language use being an easy tell that it wasn’t you. anyway, i don’t disrespect people…that’s not how I roll. anything else is an imposter.
This is fucked. Good to hear, kschep, you always post good insights and give props on trades well executed.
Also, glad you recognized the language difference, I thought I was going crazy that I was the only one who saw it.
iBankCoin uses WordPress for the site. You can’t duplicate or “steal” someone else’s avatar; that is the tell for the true identity
…I can’t believe I am wasting my time on this.
Me also – I did not write the “I am confused” post.
the childish shit starting to go on is actually making the pay service’s more valuable as the riff raff is checked at the door.
We get the best of both worlds. Can head ‘inside’ when we’ve had enough. What did we do before the internet???
it’s like having beer 1 – 4 at the local tavern until the karaoke gets loud and having beers 5 – 15 at the country club with the cute waitress after her shift ends
He’s gone!
Per OA – the idiot has been dealt with. And lest you don’t believe me the SPOI (starting point of IDIOCY) is 100% with a stretch goal of TACI (total and complete idiot) @ 453$
grin
Awesome comment. I hope his access to the website is blocked so he’s forced back to his loser/losing ways.
+1
Hey Lan, what exit date are you using to calculate the returns on the X trade example above? thanks.
Feb 10
thanks!
im surprised no yolo’s being discussed?
i may hit an MA earnigns lotto 82.50’s. my streak is at 6…lol
amzn just scares the crap out of me.
yay, amzn missed. boom.
VIX is pretty high for that.
yea but the 340 puts were oh so cheap and the IV
ICPT maturing…
Got some DMND.
VMW 93’s YOLO at the bell.
Pray for me.
im with you. however they blew ER out of the water the other day. yet, stock has been weak. i still think this is being taken down to have the big boys load up.
No argument – I’m just going off the chart. Looks like we rode out discouragement today and wall of worry should be enough to make these options good.
I’m jealous of this trade… I don’t pray but I’ll do a dance for you
Reviewing the RVLT chart – I have this as a LT hold, but trying to use OA tools for proper entry to add.
Volaitility seems to be much lower than before, and the weekly BB’s seem to be closing tighter. From this, we should expect a dramatic move out of this range, correct?
However, the consolidation is happening after a move down into the current range. From the after hours on the subject, a move down into range is more likely to break lower.
Would appreciate anyone’s thoughts on this chart. Trying to apply the OA lessons to real time.
I think you are confusing the move down with part of the consolidation process. My take is that the past trend was up. THEN the consolidation started with developing higher lows and lower highs. Therefore it is a continuation pattern of the prior trend (upwards).
Thanks to both you Managerlou for the comments.
I have RVLT charted in a big balanced triangle for the past year or so. Bottom trend line starting from 2/19/13, upper trend line from 7/23/13. It’s at a good spot now to add imo, sitting on the lower trend line now.
It kind of made this triangle right after rounding out a longer term bottom, or so. It kind of was going up going into this triangle. I’d say it’s worth a shot on the long side.
weird… did some of the comments that were replies to other comments get “flattened”?
I think when when OA “fixed” the issue (probably by deleting the offender entirely), it busted every chain that had links to posts (directly or indirectly) to that (now) missing post.
my ANGI 17.5s finally closed blue
I wish the comments weren’t deleted so I could check out the lolz
Jeff- Tonight’s webinar was boss. I think a lot of us know what those patterns are but your explanation of what is happening makes all the difference in actually understanding them as they develop. Thank you!
I’ve always watched from the sidelines as those in here talked about descending wedges, 1-2-3 reversals, channel bottoms, and flying pigeons.
After today’s session, I feel like I have at least the BASICS of pattern recognition. After I re-watch a few more times, I feel I will be facile with at least the “big five” of these patterns and able to tuse them to advantage.
Having done more than a little post-grad work – I’ll tell y’all this: if you’re in the AH technical trading classes, you are getting a masters level education in financial analysis for todays market.
A while ago I thought Jeff’s session on “the Greeks” was the best ever. Then he did the step by step on top down analysis and I just KNEW it was the best I’d ever seen.
So now he does this weeks session and I just couldn’t get over breakout trading. Then today’s session on patterns and…
well suffice it to say I’m floored.
As with his trading – OA continues to raise the bar.
Thanks Jeff for another great session.
And thanks to the room for a creative, productive, and truly supportive environment in which to make money.
OA, how you like MTH on the next pullback? I think we could see a fast move to $53 once it breakouts. I’m thinking $45 or so could be a good entry.
Over the past four months some of Jeff’s best setups took weeks/months to develop. The subsequent breakouts were 10%++
Now, to me, since last week all these charts of our favourite stocks are broken and setups are found on lower timeframes…one hour, 15m .
Won’t breakouts from here be small? And, are these setups convincing?
I’m just sitting back waiting for charts to smooth out a bit. I don’t know if this is a good strategy and I’ll likely miss the bounces in the coming days. But I’m just not seeing good setups for longs.
I’m a student here and like asking questions.
As Jeff mentioned in AH a few days ago, in this market we may have to make small adjustments to our trading style namely, faster hits and more attention to risk mitigation.
That said, I take issue with your comment that our favorite stocks are broken – to wit:
ANGI – continued upward momentum and went blue today for many of us
CZR – continued upward movement in the manner we expect it to trade – net up for the day
FSLR – gradually teasing up into breakout range – net up for the day
GRPN – certainly the laggard of the bunch, but in no way broken yet. No, it may not hit targets, but 13-15 appears doable and with our entry, is a profitable trade
KBH – continued upward momentum, went blue for me today
VMW – traded almost exactly to plan in 2 phases – congrats to those who held and got the full 95 target
X – Early phase of trade, but showing every sign of ready to launch a la CRM
Moreover, while it’s nice to see the gains on a “good” day, look at how all these items held up from a nuclear meltdown Monday to a plain old crappy Tuesday, to a mediocre Wednesday through a very nice day today. The fact that they survived Monday intact gives me even more confidence of the integrity of the trades.
We throw around the word “broken” a little too frequently in here – personally I will only use that word if it takes out equal or lower lows, or lower highs. Trading at the lower end of “in range” does not broken make.
Personally all my positions are black today (with plusses next to them) and two of my positions went blue.
And I see that CRM had an equal high today, so we should be looking for a high low now, it might come as soon as tomorrow. i see potential 59.55 for entry. what do you think?
If I had the cash I would certainly take the entry. CRM has been BERRY BERRY good to me !
sammy sosa reference?
If you had the cash, what approach would you take? The IV seems quite high right now and even the Feb 65s are like $0.55. Since 65 seems like a reasonable target, I am not exactly certain how one would play this. I suppose we could choose shorter dated options, but if you were to do that, would you go with the Feb1’s or the Feb2’s? Thanks!
Twinkies – not Sammy Sosa. Old SNL routine by Garrett Morris talking about how baseball has been BERRY BERRY good to me. However, the Sammy Sosa reference does put it in generational context, so have at it.
Not as OG as lanforce but still input:
I bought 21 unique February calls these past weeks… Only 5 look bad to me and 2 of those I see salvageable (get back at least 1/3 of premium) while the other 3 are most likely done but I could still recoup a couple bucks. If I would’ve been a little more keen I could’ve sold the ones that obviously failed (ANW dammit ballsack)
Of those 22, 5 are at a double or better (I’m including KBH which is only technically up 90%) and one is at a +300% (QIHU, for now).
Now, the last 12 are all negative but I will say the charts still look good with 3 full weeks to go before expiration. Granted I’m a student and still learning – but what better way to learn by doing and living it?
This shit has been wild… Watching my ARIA calls go up +500% (probably should’ve sold) then back down to just a measly double and riding the QIHU roller coaster like an asshole. It was a lot easier in December because the sentiment of the market was different (IMO).
Overall, I’m way down from last Wednesday, but what matters is I’m richer a year from now.
There are plenty of set ups out there brother/sister just keep emotions out and manage those positions like a boss!
thank you two for sharing your exploits. i have probably a dozen or so positions on and closed out many of them today just due to the extreme volatility swings in price. I don’t like seeing my account yoyo day to day lol. Of note, I was proud of my exit on PHM this morning at 20 gap fill, awesome entry yesterday in FIO, closed TWTR and FB near highs along with IWM. I had to trade my ass back to a much smaller loss from having a horrible position and size during the rug pull last week. Thought i had a stop and turned out no. This current volatility range is requiring a different tactic. I’m closing things quicker, and rather have the profit. I rather like the sub 14 VIX. hold and forget.
new positions in AAPL calls. I love the neg sentiment on this company, especially when others are crushing it. From the video tonite, I have buy orders set for CREE TRLA and X all at ideal points. Looking to buy IWM back for the quick rally in the 1-2-3 reversal process.
some notable holdings in ANGI FIO FSLR YGE KBH CZR AAPL IRWD ROVI VMW and some that are completely gimped and dead.
Earnings yolo’s in MA calls and AMZN puts. hoping to keep the winning streak alive!
This article was a nice read – thanks Hesitation. I always enjoy your posts.
Yes, nice comments… That FIO entry was spot on
It appears to me you are doing well in the “win big lose small” strategy.
Congrats.
What means OG ?
Original Gangster
Haha, Lan, I forget that I’m your grandson’s age because you’re so damn cool until you ask something like this. Rock on.
Um, probably more like my SON’s age – please don’t attribute to me 20 years I haven’t lived yet. My grandson is 2.
LOL
Hahahahahha, yes, I stand correct. Son. The only person around here that’s two years old is that guy impersonating Harper.
Should we be dollaring down on positions or just sit and watch the show? Futures are rough and vix is gonna be 10%
Stacks on deck for $GILD earnings Tuesday. Gonna be beautiful… Sick price but entry with weeklys could be just the cure.
The internets are always a source of good humor.
Same here
Hey guys – does anyone know what tool OA used in addition to the Mcmillian Oscialator. The one with three lines. I just watched Tuesday last night and forgot what it was. Thanks.
If you are talking about the the multiple stochastics on the bottom – it’s a custom tool he built. He DID share the code in the original chat and I know at least ONE person got it and was succesful in implementing it.
If that’s what you’re talking about, put a note in here to Jeff and I’m sure he can hook you up.
are you talking about the McLellan? “McMillian” sounds like the kind of cheap scotch I’ll be drinking if GRPN doesn’t turn up.
where is everyone?
The new comments are getting posted above some from yesterday. Comment section has been active today but its hard to read. OA, mind posting a new blog just for commenting purposes?
aah, ok, i see it now.. thanks!
You guys seeing how strong social media and housing are in a horrific market? Me likey.
+1
+2
$AAPL yolo 497.50’s
some builders setting up against some resistance…should be interesting to watch. may not break today, but we’ll see.
New thread is up – so we can be done with THIS nonsense forever !