I added more exposure to China today via shares of MY. Here’s where I stand, whilst everyone runs away.
My core option positions:
YGE, FSLR, DECK, ANGI, CZR, KBH, GRPN, TRLA
My core stock positions:
MY, YGE, GRPN, FSLR, CAMT, CIMT, DANG, CAMT, MJNA, PHOT, URRE, RENN, XIN, GLUU, GURE, REE, AMRS
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GOGO doing quite nicely here.
Speaking of shorts, did anyone else see the Chess post about WWE as a possible “parabolic” short ?
Would enjoy thoughts from those who regularly do shorts.
I’m short WWE. Whatcha want to know. This is all a short squeeze. Same with ONVO couple months back, LIVE, etc.
You in the 20’s ?
no shares
I KNOW we want the volume pocket. I KNOW we need to be patient and let the winners run. But if the market bounces strong from here, yesterday may have been the low .
I’m going to look at buying puts if it retests the 22.50 area.
Great call on those homebuilders, OA! They are running today, as is their suppliers like SPF.
Could those secondary plays, like LPX, follow suit along with the homebuilders?
Yep!
DHI had good reaction to earnings, which is boding well for the rest. I see RYL and BZH report on the 30th, so I hope they continue the run…tempted to sell some here, but I imagine I will get plenty of replies with don’t you dare sell now.
OA is your interest in PHOT mostly technical or do you have faith in the company’s fundamentals?
I own these stocks from last year. Not much in the way of “technicals” on those charts.
Still laughing after seeing the book cover : how to succeed withou a penis
Got to find your penis when the market downticks like this. Make sure its still there.
Hey OA videophiles – I need help locating a video. A while back (3-4 weeks ?), we went through a top down scan of “shopping for stocks”.
We started with sector, worked down to industry, then worked down to individual stocks and screened them.
This is one I want for my library – can anyone point me to it ?
I think it was on a Thursday or Friday, if that helps…
The energy vid?
yup that was the one
He might be referring to the one where you screened through all of the Finviz stocks over $10 dollars. I believe it was a Friday because we were making a list for the next week
If it’s the energy one it’s here.
http://ibankcoin.com/afterhours/2014/01/08/top-down-analysis-energy/
Yes – that was the one. Thanks all. For some reason I thought it was Biotech, so I wasn’t going back far enough.
I am not getting killed today with OA’s picks 🙁
@ Danny
@ Sandwich
@ Hesitation
@ LOL
I’m LOOKING at X as a possible CRM style trade. HUGE volume pockets above 26 (to 35), cheap entry, and an ability (January) to run from 26 to 30 in 10 days or so.
Upside return (with a .40 entry):
@ 28 – 128%
@ 30 – 405%
@ 32 – 900%
The last two are for Feb 20 attainment – my concern on this trade is time.
Again right now I’m LOOKING, but if it holds up @ 26 or can hit and hold 26.35, I think I’m interested.
Apologies – the last 10 day runup was actually December 17th.
I’m interested but I am fully levered w/ no cash available (Fly would be proud). I don’t want to sell any of my positions here… yet. As always, I appreciate the good ideas sir lanforce.
i’m in
I’m NOT in (yet). Just a heads up for your watchlist.
Which strike, Feb 27s?
28’s, but 27’s would certainly be a safer play.
Thanks. I understand the concept of volume pockets, but not sure how you display them graphically. Any help?
I like it – especially if it gets a sympathetic bounce from $AKS – charts look pretty similar over the last month.
Well OA you’re either crazy like a fox, or just plain old crazy.
A profitable round of front month trades in this environment would blow everyone else away. My gut says you’re right.
I’m really trying to fall in love with KBH.
I even bought condoms.
what’s a condom?
Something you will be wearing in 2 to 3 weeks when your wife is recovered.
LOL
something you use until the vasectomy is completed, so that you don’t end up with a 4th (or 6th in Lanforce’s case).
As my wife is fond of saying, the reason we have five is because we DON’T want six !!!
When the doubt creeps in is when I staple the faces of doubters to a wall and blast them with my excellence.
Been there too many times.
i piss excellence.
+1
Nice use of the word “whilst”
I get worried when people start using the royal “we”…
Z is my favorite stock right now other than ANGI. Homebuilding + social media. Can’t add on an up day like this though.
Short GLD Long GDX working today
get it baby
nice snap in these chinese media names
Or explosion.
ROR.
true. but the last few days took the options so far out the money the but up today isn’t having as big of an impact.
you dont have to stick with the equities only, the stocks move just fine as well.stay diversified in your products, dont piss away a good idea just cause the horizon analysis was a little off..
*options only
We did this with Social Media in late November. I still came out just fine in December.
true. keeping my fingers cross that rally continues and pushes my options closer in the money
i know you got your product mix and horizons down, but for the guys lamenting missing the one day beta move, just consider different stuff
XIN looking like a successful retest after breaking out of a descending wedge. Easy entry now for risk management too.
Check out the 20 day or 30 day chart of the Russell. Almost perfect alignment with Jeff’s sentiment chart. Right now looks to be the snap-back from Panic so maybe a bit more downside?
Nice. Another possibility is the RUT on a shorter timeframe, 10min bars. Looks a lot like discouragement here with the back and forth triangle action just like the sentiment chart. Then the bottom of Panic would have been Friday. Just another possibility.
I guess I got my comment quota in for the day now.
I see what you’re saying Lou. Hopefully that interpretation is the right one although I have a bad feeling it is the former.
Yeah, I hope so too. We’ll find out soon.
ICEL daily is looking a lot like the sentiment chart too, I’d say at Aversion right now. Also, appears to be touching a sweet trend line from it’s IPO.
Hi Jeff, missed your session yday and i find the CRASH course only.. did you do a wrap on the market at all yday?
I started early and discussed the market, yeah.
With all due and full credit to Uncle Buccs for this great recap:
UncleBuccs 2014-01-27 17:43:45
Here’s the watchlist for viewers of the Recording: ROVI, ZU, MU, AMBA, CRM, CRZO, SGEN, CREE, QIHU, MY, NIHD In addition, OA said he didn’t do anything today, but did sell $TSL on Friday. McClellan is not oversold, yet. If market is up tomorrow, will most likely give it back. He likes steel before coal (AKS & X) were mentioned. Only stock he would consider shorting is $TZA
Tips hat… 😉
Thanks Lanforce for the recap..
Thanks for the recap lanforce
could be time for another date with IDRA, perhaps on the next swing below 4.
Man – KBH is starting to get “that look”. A little tighter on the dips and rips and it actually could go this week.
Morgan Stanley Calls Chinese Selloff a “Buying Opportunity”
Morningstar – Jan 28 2014
Also: Morgan Stanley is calling the selloff a buying opportunity, and has picked five names it’s a fan of – Baidu (BIDU +2.8%), YY (YY +14.5%), New Oriental (EDU +2.8%), Dangdang (DANG +6.8%), and Ctrip (CTRP +5.2%)..
MS expects Baidu’s margins (recently pressured by huge investments) to stabilize later this year with the help of accelerating sales growth; it’s pleased with Ctrip’s willingness to sacrifice near-term margins for share gains;
It thinks Dangdang’s e-commerce strategy is yielding margin improvement and better fulfillment efficiency; and it’s a fan of YY’s “sticky” user base and monetization potential (less than 2% of users are currently monetized).
Major gainers include Sungy Mobile (GOMO +11.3%), 500.com (WBAI +18.3%), ChinaCache (CCIH +9.8%), Vipshop (VIPS +10%), Bitauto (BITA +9.5%), and Qunar Baidu-controlled (QUNR +8.8%).
OMEX for something that hasn’t ripped…unlike alim/psdv, which are shaking off the market and look to be holds for longterm basket if you can catch it on the next big dip…don’t chase, just stalk.
sold ANGI Feb 20 calls against stock position. IV is at the high end of range and I’d take the 20% upside in the stock if I get called away.
still havent gotten filled. argh.
I’ve been sitting on the offer for 2 days and got filled for 10
OA’s favorite pattern: OWW
Did u see the volume come in 7.50 calls
Started a position in MU Feb 24 calls, like the look here
still holding my jan 31s, hoping it jumps here.
5th week jan 22s*
@Lan and whoever else would like to join.
Took APOL calls here $35 @.35 entry. Target is $35 stretch $36. IV, Delta and Gamma are all very niche
Oh Hi ANGI
I forgot, guys, what’s our price target on DECK?
just looking I’d say resistance near 81ish.
Nice pump for solar in the speech tonight. Could see a rip.
That could’ve been the case if he had any credibility. Unfortunately, its one lie after another.
Goodbye Ben Bernanke and thank you .
Did Jeff update the watchlist before the seminar last night?
Russell appears to still be chopping through ‘Discouragement’…
that’s looking at the 15min
I could be wrong, but CZR looks like a perfect sentiment chart, in the “aversion” phase. long those muthafuckin calls, son.
WORD.
X received a nice upgrade from Jefferies. About the only thing holding up this morning.
Anyone see anything interesting? I keep seeing high IVs because of earnings season and its making me back off.
Haven’t done anything today, but I have the following on my watchlist:
I have limit orders in on KNDI and JBL. They won’t get touched today.
HOV, MU, AMBA, CREE are in there as well, but they are in the middle of the zone.
I’m searching for oil and tech plays for later this week and early next.
GOGO puts closed. Bear trade win!
Ditto
Fighting this average-joe feeling to sell $TRAL here.
TRLA
FSLR mmmm good
kbh better mmm
Builders: days to cover short as of 1/15:
BZH 11.50
PHM 2.70
LEN 8.60
KBH 8.00
MTH 1.60
RYL 7.90
DHI 9.10 (already had earnings)
TOL 3.40
Not wanting to get overexposed here, and earnings dates probably are a consideration…but might be others to play and if rotation among these occurs, I don’t know for sure which to pick next…gonna have to study the charts I guess if this plays out accordingly.
several report earnings tomorrow, a couple in Feb, so maybe not the best time to initiate if you aren’t already playing. LEN/KBH are ones that don’t report until March.
forgot HOV: 4.4 days, report 3/5.
11 and a half days on BZH? Jesus a short squeeze would fucking murder them.
they report tomorrow…new short interest report will be out after this week…so not sure what current short is or where to access that. These are simply from nasdaq
long live cannabis, the chinese internet, and solar ( as long as possible anyway)
I think this mornings dips were the ones to buy for ALIM/IDRA. market drop provided some gifts in these 2 that should act rather independently of ‘the market’…though not completely immune. Now you gotta look for drop to 4 for IDRA, mid 6’s for alim if pennant forms.
Correct that fed would taper. Waiting for some indication that they are/will extend solar swaps.
Like AREX. Thanks to Fly.
Do have to join I bank coin to watch the webinar after hours, I pay 79. A month to option addicts.