Consensus Among Analysts Expect Tapering to $65B a Month Starting in October

“Economists cut their estimates for how much the Federal Reserve will reduce the amount of its monthly asset purchases, a Bloomberg survey shows.

Policy makers led by Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will trim their so-called quantitative easing program to $65 billion a month at the Oct. 29-30 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, from the current level of $85 billion, according to the median estimate in the survey of 59 economists this week. In a similar survey before the Fed’s April 30-May 1 meeting, economists expected the Fed to cut purchases to $50 billion in the fourth quarter.

Debate among central bank policy makers over when and how to dial back their unprecedented easing campaign has shaken financial markets. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has dropped 2.8 percent since reaching a record closing high on May 21, and the yield on 10-year Treasuries has risen to 2.08 percent from as low as 1.63 percent last month as investors weighed the timing of a reduction in the central bank’s stimulus.

“Even those who are advocating for tapering are thinking that it could be a pretty small first step to see how it goes,” said Julia Coronado, chief economist for North America at BNP Paribas in New York and a former Fed economist. “That’s one of the few things we’ve learned” from the debate among policy makers.

When the first move comes, officials will split their $65 billion in purchases between $30 billion a month of mortgage bonds and $35 billion a month of Treasuries, a $10 billion reduction in each category, according to the survey, conducted June 4-5.

June Tapering?

Two of the 59 economists surveyed this week expect the pace of purchases to be reduced at the FOMC meetings on June 18-19 or July 30-31. Sixteen say tapering will begin at the Sept. 17-18 meeting, 14 see it happening Oct. 29-30 and 15 forecast the first tapering Dec. 17-18. Twelve see tapering next year or later.

“If jobs growth continues in the 150,000-to-200,000 per month range, that’s probably sufficient to lower the unemployment rateslightly,” said Tom Lam, chief economist at DMG & Partners Securities in Singapore. “Coupled with real GDP growth recovering to 2.5 percent, that would be sufficient for them to consider tapering modestly at the December meeting.”

Stocks, Bonds…”

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“West Texas Intermediate headed for its first weekly gain in a month before data forecast to show more jobs were added in the U.S., the biggest crude consumer.

Futures rose as much as 0.4 percent, and have advanced 3.4 percent this week. Employers in the U.S. probably created as many jobs in May as in the month before, a Bloomberg survey showed before the Labor Department’s report today. WTI’s discount to the European benchmark, Brent, widened for the first time in three days. WTI may slide next week, according to a separate Bloomberg survey.

“We are expecting a seasonal pick-up in demand in the coming months,” said Amrita Sen, chief oil-market analyst at Energy Aspects Ltd., a consulting company in London. “The U.S. recovery has been broadly on track so far. The labor market is healing and the economy is slowly getting better.”

WTI for July delivery was at $95.06 a barrel, up 30 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 10:36 a.m. London time. The volume of all futures traded was 15 percent below the 100-day average. The contract rose $1.02 to $94.76 yesterday, the highest close since May 28.

Brent for July settlement was up 39 cents at $104 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark grade was at a premium of $8.97 to WTI, compared with $8.85 yesterday.

Economic Recovery…”

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“Brazil’s credit rating outlook was cut to negative by Standard & Poor’s, which said sluggish economic growth and an expansionary fiscal policy could lead to an increase in the government’s debt levels.

S&P said in a statement yesterday that it lowered the outlook on Brazil’s BBB rating, which is two levels above junk and in line with Mexico and Russia, from stable. The rating company also cut the outlooks for state-controlled oil company Petroleo Brasileiro SA and government-run utility Centrais Eletricas Brasileiras SA.

The move, which threatens to end a decade-long stretch of rating upgrades for Latin America’s biggest country, was triggered by forecasts for a third year of “modest” economic growth, “weaker” fiscal policy and a deterioration in the government’s credibility, S&P said. Yields onBrazil’s dollar bonds have surged an average 0.81 percentage point in the past month to 4.49 percent. The outlook revision may prompt Brazilian debt to underperform, according to Siobhan Morden, a fixed-income strategist at Jefferies Group LLC.

“It has to do with policy inconsistency, the low-growth high-inflation trade off, and the loss of credibility of the central bank,” Morden said in a phone interview from New York.

Brazil’s economy expanded 0.9 percent last year and is forecast to grow just 2.77 percent in 2013, according to a central bank survey published June 3. Quickening inflation has prompted policy makers to boost interest rates by 0.75 percentage point this year after they lowered borrowing costs by 5.25 percentage points in cuts that began in August 2011.

‘Not Expansionary’…”

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“European Central Bank President Mario Draghi isn’t racing to the rescue of Europe’s banks or economy this time.

Almost a year since his promise to do “whatever it takes” to protect the euro soothed investors, and a month since cutting interest rates, Draghi signalled yesterday that governments, not the ECB, should do more to fight recession and boost credit to businesses in cash-strapped countries such as Spain.

As he predicted a resumption of growth by the end of the year, Draghi’s maintenance of the status quo sent bonds falling and the euro rising as investors questioned the ECB’s crisis-fighting resolve, which previously reinforced its president’s “Super Mario” nickname. Yields on Spanish and Italian 10-year bonds jumped yesterday to the most in six weeks, while German two-year borrowing costs climbed to the highest since February. Markets rebounded today with rates falling across the region.

“Investors see ECB talk for what it is, a fig leaf,” said Ciaran O’Hagan, head of European rates strategy at Societe Generale SA in Paris. “Draghi mentioned many possible measures, only to conclude that they are too hard to introduce.”

If the economy improves in the second half of the year, the ECB may refrain from further action as “the easy instruments have all been used,” Austrian central bank governor Ewald Nowotny said today.

Recession Risks…”

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“German industrial production (GRIPIMOM) surged the most in more than a year in April as construction activity surged after an unusually long winter damped output.

Production jumped 1.8 percent percent from March, when it gained 1.2 percent, the Economy Ministry in Berlin said today. That’s the third consecutive increase and the strongest gain since March last year. Economists forecast no change, according to the median of 38 estimates in aBloomberg News survey. From a year earlier, production rose 1 percent when adjusted for working days.

The Bundesbank downgraded its outlook for the German economy today, while pointing to a gradual recovery in the course of the year. Exports in April rose more than forecast, supporting the central bank’s view that trade with faster-growing markets in Asia and the U.S. will help offset the effects of six quarters of recession in the 17-nation euro area.

“The German economy is gradually exiting the weak phase that it had around the turn of the year,” Mario Gruppe, an economist at NordLB in Hanover, said before the release. “It is however a growth path that has a few potholes in it. It will be a recovery that now and again has setbacks.”

After the European Central Bank left interest rates at a record low of 0.5 percent yesterday, President Mario Draghi reiterated his view that the region’s economy will still return to growth this year.

Stocks Fall…”

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“Germany’s Bundesbank cut its forecasts for growth in Europe’s largest economy for this year and next, while signaling confidence that the worst of the recession in the euro area is over.

The Frankfurt-based central bank cut its 2013 growth projection to 0.3 from the 0.4 percent predicted in December, and said the economy would grow by 1.5 percent in 2014, down from the previously-estimated 1.9 percent.

“Much will depend on whether the economic situation stabilizes in the euro-area crisis countries and whether expansionary forces will gradually gain the upper hand there,” Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said in a statement. “A sustained upturn in the world economy is just as important as a precondition for the growth path we have assumed.”

While the German economy grew just 0.1 percent in the first three months of this year, business confidence rose in May…”

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“Britain’s trade deficit narrowed more than economists forecast in April as imports declined faster than exports.

The goods trade gap was at 8.2 billion pounds ($12.8 billion) compared with 9.2 billion pounds in March, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. The median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 19 economists was for 8.8 billion pounds. Exports fell 1.4 percent and imports declined 3.8 percent.

While data this week show the economy is gaining momentum, today’s figures underline the risks to the recovery from a recession-stricken euro zone, Britain’s biggest trading partner. Exports to the bloc fell 2.3 percent to their lowest level since February 2011. Net trade acted as a drag on economic growth in the first quarter.

“It seems unlikely that net trade can significantly help the U.K. economy in the near term given current ongoing weak domestic demand in the euro zone and moderate and stuttering global growth,” said Howard Archer, an economist at IHS Global Insight in London. “The hope is that the overall marked weakening of the pound earlier in 2013 will increasingly feed through to boost exports and the beneficial impact of this is reinforced by global growth gradually improving.”

Exports to the European Union as a whole fell 3 percent. The decline was partially offset by a 0.2 percent rise in shipments to countries outside the bloc.

The surplus on trade in services narrowed to 5.6 billion pounds in April, leaving the overall trade deficit at 2.6 billion pounds compared with a gap of 3.2 billion pounds a month earlier, the ONS said….”

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“Australia’s dollar dropped versus the yen, set for its worst weekly rout since 2011, before Chinese data tomorrow forecast to show growth in imports slowed, dimming the demand outlook for commodities.

Implied volatility of the Aussie against the U.S. currency was set for a sixth weekly advance, the longest in two years, before a U.S. jobs report today that may help investors estimate when the Federal Reserve will start reducing monetary stimulus. Australia’s government bonds extended their gains to a third day amid increasing bets the Reserve Bank will cut borrowing costs to shore up economic growth.

“We’re bearish on the currency,” said Andrew Salter, a currency strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. (ANZ) in Sydney, referring to the Aussie. It’s a little bit of a surprise that “Chinese growth is so sluggish,” he said.

The Australian currency dropped 1 percent to 92.13 yen as of 5:10 p.m. in Sydney after touching 90.84, the least since Jan. 2. It’s slumped 4.2 percent in the five days through today, poised for the biggest plunge since September 2011. New Zealand’s kiwi dollar declined 0.6 percent to 77.31 yen, having fallen 3.2 percent this week.

Australia’s dollar slid 0.8 percent to 95.17 U.S. cents, extending its fifth weekly drop to 0.6 percent. New Zealand’s dollar lost 0.5 percent to 79.86 U.S. cents, trimming its weekly advance to 0.5 percent.

Australian Yields

The yield on Australia’s benchmark 10-year government note dropped 9 basis points to 3.26 percent, extending its weekly decline to 10 basis points. Similar-maturity note yields in New Zealand fell 5 basis points to 3.55 percent…”

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“China’s record funding expansion this year may be overstated in part because of double-counting, say Credit Suisse Group AG and Bank of America Corp. analysts trying to reconcile the data with weaker economic growth.

Some Chinese companies may use loans to buy wealth management products that are recorded a second time in another category, Vincent Chan, a Credit Suisse analyst in Hong Kong, wrote in a June 5 report, citing people he didn’t identify at the central bank and banking regulator. Bank of America estimates that double-counting explains 2.7 percentage points of a 12-point gap between first-quarter growth in outstanding credit and nominal gross domestic product.

The concerns echo doubts about Chinese trade figures that helped trigger an official crackdown on false reporting, resulting in May export growth forecast to be about half of April’s gains in data due tomorrow. While the estimated distortions in the credit numbers are smaller, they may provide one part of the explanation for the inconsistency between growth in financing and an economic slowdown.

“The statistics errors in total social financing this year are larger than normal, and it’s mainly caused by double counting,” Zhu Haibin, chief China economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co., said at a briefing yesterday in Beijing.

The first quarter’s $1 trillion increase in economy-wide financing contrasted with an unexpected growth slowdown, suggesting China was becoming less responsive to credit.

More Noticeable

The gap between lending and growth “has become more noticeable in recent months,” Zhu said. Another issue is that some Chinese companies have to borrow to cover working capital as accounts receivable rise, adding to the gap between credit and economic growth, Zhu said….”

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“The rate China’s lenders charge one another on overnight loans jumped the most in almost two years as shrinking capital inflows led to a cash squeeze before a three-day holiday.

Yuan positions at local financial institutions, an indication of money pouring into Asia’s largest economy, rose 294 billion yuan ($48 billion) in April and China International Capital Corp. estimates the gain slowed to around 100 billion yuan last month. While the People’s Bank of China added a net 160 billion yuan to the financial system this week, it has refrained from conducting reverse-repurchase operations that inject funds since Feb. 7. Local markets will be shut from June 10 to June 12 for the Dragon Boat Festival.

“Foreign capital inflows are probably declining,” said Wang Huane, a senior bond trader at Qilu Bank Co. in Jinan, capital of the eastern Shandong province. “The PBOC has refrained from adding more capital into the financial system, which worsens the situation.”

The one-day repurchase rate, which measures interbank funding availability, climbed 253 basis points, or 2.53 percentage points, to 8.68 percent as of 4:30 p.m. in Shanghai, the biggest jump since July 2011, according to a weighted average rate compiled by the National Interbank Funding Center. It surged 4.15 percentage points this week.

Default Report…”

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“Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said that the government won’t intervene in the currency market for now after the yen strengthened by the most in three years against the dollar.

“We are carefully watching, but we don’t have any immediate intention of taking any action, such as intervention,” the finance minister told reporters in Tokyo today. The yen jumped 0.7 percent to 96.28 per dollar as of 1:47 p.m. local time.

Japan’s currency surged 2.2 percent yesterday, adding to the headwinds of a slide in stocks and volatility in bonds as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe campaigns to revive the world’s third-biggest economy. As attention turns to a Bank of Japan meeting on June 10-11, Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s actions may be limited by his pledge to avoid “incremental” steps after announcing a plan to double the monetary base over two years.

“Stocks rose and the yen weakened between November and May at a very rapid pace, driven by expectations for Abenomics and Kuroda-nomics, exceeding the pace of the economy’s fundamental improvement,” said Hiroaki Muto, a senior economist in Tokyo at Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management. “The markets are now going through an adjustment phase from the too-rapid moves.”

Muto said that the “adjustment” is probably temporary because the Japanese economy is making gains. At the same time, he said the government may consider another jolt of fiscal stimulus.

Market Outlook…”

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“Japan’s public pension fund, the world’s biggest manager of retirement savings, said it will reduce its holdings of local bonds and buy more shares.

The proportion of assets held in Japanese bonds will be cut to 60 percent from 67 percent, the health ministry said today in Tokyo at a briefing to announce changes to the mid-term plan of the Government Pension Investment Fund. The weighting of local shares will be increased to 12 percent from 11 percent currently. The Health and Welfare Ministry, which oversees pensions, didn’t give a time frame for the changes.

“It was a negative factor as far as bond supply and demand is concerned,” said Makoto Suzuki, a bond strategist at Okasan Securities Co. in Tokyo, one of the 24 primary dealers obliged to bid at government debt sales.

GPIF’s shift toward higher-yielding assets comes as it prepares to fund retirements in the world’s most elderly population and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe tries to revive the economy through fiscal and monetary stimulus. Domestic shares have slid since Abe said yesterday that a legislative campaign to loosen rules on businesses, the “third arrow” of his economic plan, won’t begin for months.

Nikkei 225 Stock Average futures in Singapore and Osaka erased gains after the GPIF announcement. June futures on the Nikkei 225 fell 1.5 percent to 12,645 at the 2:30 p.m. close in Singapore while those in Osaka fell 1.1 percent.

Alternative Assets….”

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World Markets

Currencies

Commodities

USD Libor

Euribor

Yields for Japan, Italy, Spain, France,  and Germany …

[youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=paqXzuhzp5k 450 300]

[youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YgEoKG2ukbw 450 300]

[youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JLa_7wcXVCY 450 300]

Source

“America may be a service economy but for the sake of tomorrow’s NFP let’s pretend it isn’t. Because if the employment component of the Non-manufacturing (i.e., Services) ISM, which at least in the pre-centrally planned times correlated with the NFP number with an R² of about 0.9, is indicative of what to expect, one can kiss any hopes of a recovery goodbye. Which, of course, is great news! It means the Fed will never pull out and never realize that it is the Fed’s central planning and market manipulation that is responsible for the every deeper global economic depression which benefits only stock holders (and traders).

”

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“As the world waits breathless for some Goldilocks print in tomorrow’s non-farm payroll data, Gallup’s most recent survey of employment trends does not paint a pretty picture for the real economy. Though, by the ‘adjustment bureau’ and their Arima-X goal-seeking, nothing is ever clear, not only is the payroll-to-population (the number of people working) worse than a year ago but the unemployment rate is also rising with under-employment – at 18.0% – near 15 month highs. If the NFP print plays out in line with this, the estimate of 165k will be woefully over-optimistic, leaving the question of whether bad-is-good, or have we crossed the Rubicon of belief in moar is better.

Via Gallup:

The U.S. Payroll to Population employment rate (P2P), as measured by Gallup, worsened in May, dropping to 43.9%, from 44.5% in April. P2P is also down from May 2012, when it was 44.4%

The decline in P2P versus 2012 indicates that fewer people worked full-time for an employer this May compared with a year ago. The 43.9% found this May is similar to the 43.7% recorded in 2011 and 44.0% in 2010.

Gallup’s P2P metric is an estimate of the percentage of the U.S. adult population aged 18 and older who are employed full time by an employer for at least 30 hours per week. P2P is not seasonally adjusted.

…

Gallup’s unadjusted unemployment rate for the U.S. workforce was 7.9% for the month of May, a half-point increase over April, and statistically unchanged from May 2012 (8.0%).

Gallup’s seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate for May was 8.2%, up from 7.8% in April…..”

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Indeed, economic news lately has ranged from mediocre to weak, which could reinforce the Fed’s conviction to hold its key rate near zero and to continue to pump $85 billion a month into the economy through asset purchases….”

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“There are rip-your-face-off rallies and then there are the rip-your-face-off retreats—the kind Wall Street experienced Thursday during a brief but vicious yen surge.

At one point, the U.S. dollar lost about 4 percent to the Japanese currency as the pair trade tumbled through its 50-day moving average.

The move sent the Dow industrials plunging 115 points after flirting with positive territory through most of the early session, and delivered a quick but palpable shock through all levels of financial markets.

“Right now this just looks like a bunch of nervous hands,” said Christopher Vecchio, currency analyst at DailyFX. “The dollar was a very extended trade. This is the unwinding of that very crowded trade.” …”

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