Category Archives: Commentary
“Gary Tanashian writes: The following is an excerpt from NFTRH 298′s 38 pages of hard hitting, no b/s market analysis, which also included extensive work on the precious metals along with commodities, currencies, global markets andmarket sentiment.
Stock Markets – US
Happy Independence Day America! Your markets are bullish… and over bought, over loved and running on increasing momentum.
Courtesy of SlopeCharts
The graph tells a story of the end of the Greenspan era’s commercial credit inflation, which was resolved in 2008, and the beginning of the Bernanke era and official credit inflation, which is ongoing.
1) The bubble in mortgage and high risk commercial products (notice how official monetary base was in essence flat) began to fade in 2006 as corporate profits began to roll over, soon followed by the S&P 500.
2) The 2008 liquidation of the Greenspan era excesses brought with it all manner of official bailout operations, including QE’s 1, 2 & 3. Notice how each QE was instituted after a flattening of money supply.
3) But ultimately it is corporate profits that conventional market analysts are paid to respect (paying no attention to that man behind the policy curtain) and they have generally been strong.
4) As we noted last week, profits are rolling just a bit. Meanwhile money supply and the stock market continue upward. But there is a thing called ‘QE tapering’ in play and that could eventually flatten out the money supply as happened in 2010 and 2011/12.
5) They are tapering in an effort to gently manage an exit from the latest round of market and economic manipulation AKA official inflationary operations.
It will end badly because it was created through manipulation, not productivity. The current operation makes Greenspan look like child’s play. He had plausible deniability because it was the evil entities on Wall Street that took his policy ball and ran with it, slicing and dicing up all sorts of investment vehicles to sell to an unsuspecting public.
This time, there is no middle man. The Fed is more honest about its inflation as it expands its own balance sheet for all to see. And yes, the balance sheet is still expanding albeit at a tapered pace. Add in Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP-Infinity?) and the Bernanke Fed has been celebrated as heroic because the majority perceive that they successfully did what they had to do to save the financial system.
But what the sycophants always seem to forget is that they had to do it because a different flavor of the same inflationary Fed policy fomented bubbles and brought on the big bust to begin with.
We remain in the age of Inflation onDemand and of boom/bust, which is much different from the pap that the happy idiots pumping today’s bullish environment would like to believe. Right now we are on a boom and that should not be denied. But understanding the framework within which the boom exists is important in managing risk.
What look like stellar technicals right now could continue to an upward blow off because that is how booms usually end. But if we are correct on the boom/bust nature of policy driven markets, the bust is gonna be a doozy. So please keep that on radar as well.
These are not conventional markets.
With that said, the Dow continues to target 17,500.
Tranny is in confirmation.
S&P 500 is at the top of the channel and in a strong bull trend. The channel top marks it as a candidate for a normal corrective decline. Alternatively, a break upward out of the channel – a channel buster – would be a sign of a possible building bull climax.
Nasdaq 100 is very strong on post-corrective momentum.
The banks are relatively under performing but are bullish.
The Small Caps could either lead a market breakdown from the former channel bottom or gain some serious upside momentum. Watch the Small Caps as they are a momentum key and also because the Russell 2000 has a big picture measurement of 1378.
Is the current low relative momentum a negative divergence indicating an oncoming stock market correction (perhaps prior to new highs later in the year?) or is this index refueling to lead a big market mania blow off in a nearer term? Again, watch the Russell.
The SOX has long since proven its case as a momentum leader. Yet the reason I do not write the SOX off as a bubble index is because I do not write its biggest component (Intel) off as a bubble stock.
Monthly SOX has a target of 900.
Monthly INTC has a target over 40. The NFTRH+ chart above was created before the break through resistance, now support. I mention this so you will know that I am not simply charting or trend following. I liked Intel for its technical and fundamental potentials. Now a technical potential (long-term resistance break) has become a reality.
The information I had on Intel was to expect big improvements in their mobile chip initiatives, which have been sorely lagging for this chip giant. Instead what happened was that corporate PC demand increased (driving Intel through our projected breakout point) and the mobile chip market is still out there to be better penetrated, at least if Intel has any kind of fundamental execution coming.
Functionally what this does for me however, is to tell me to be careful about getting bearish on the SOX if I am bullish on Intel, the highest weighted component (of the iShares SOXX fund).
By extension it continues to moderate a bearish long-term stance on the stock market just yet, since the SOX has been our leading indication since January of 2013.
So the discussion on page 15 and 16 is in the realm of the theoretical, where I do not believe that a bullish backdrop is sustainable. But everything since page 16 has been bullish and you do not fight the market for what you may think you know is right with money you don’t want to lose, because you probably will lose it.
SOX leadership vs. SPX remains intact…
Talk about rebuilding momentum, check out the Biotechs…
HYG-TLT (a junk vs. ‘quality’ credit spread) turned up last week and is threatening the breakdown line. This could simply be a breakdown retest (like the 3 red arrows) to suck in a few more bulls prior to a market correction. It could also be a gateway to an upside market blow off.
VIX is comatose as market players seem to perceive no volatility problems ….”
“Americans keep hoping for a robust recovery — one that delivers better-paying jobs and decent returns on retirement savings. Changes in technology and the economy may require that never happens, and government efforts to improve conditions often multiply the misery.
In 1908, Henry Ford had a great idea — the Model T — and a novel understanding of mass production, but needed huge amounts of capital to build factories, establish dealers to sell and service mass-produced cars and maintain a large corps of managers and assembly workers.
His success inspired competitors and whole new industries making everything from agricultural implements to zippers. For three generations, those created enormous demand for capital and jobs for millions in manufacturing and supporting services.
In the closing decades of the 20th century, rapidly advancing digital technologies helped those industries use factories more efficiently and slash the numbers of managers and assembly workers needed.
Most digital companies never had quite the same appetite for capital and workers.
Google was founded in 1998 with $100,000 in seed capital, and $25 million in funding a year later. Within five years, its search engine was available to virtually every computer user around the world, and its brand was more ubiquitous than Coca Cola.
Google’s outstanding stock is worth approximately $370 billion — more than five times Ford’s stock — and it has accomplished this remarkable wealth creation on a relatively small initial investment. Today it has approximately 50,000 high-skilled employees — less than one-fourth of Ford’s workforce, which has been significantly downsized in recent decades.
Older enterprises like Ford and younger ones like Google that form the manufacturing and technology economy of the 21st century need more tech-savvy workers than universities and community colleges provide. However, even if enough liberal arts and business programs could retool to produce all the science, math, technology and engineering graduates needed, the remaining programs would still produce many more non-science, technology, mathematics and engineering graduates than the economy could absorb.
Similarly innovators often don’t need a lot of money to create valuable new enterprises or expand established businesses. Consider that many young people create profitable apps and marketing platforms on their laptops, and major corporations are flush with billions in cash and too few opportunities to deploy it.
Consequently, established companies and individual investors bid up prices for young enterprises, whose owners wish to cash in on their initial success….”
“Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PresidentJames Bullard said a rapid drop in joblessness will fuel inflation, bolstering his case for an interest-rate increase early next year.
“I think we are going to overshoot here on inflation,” Bullard said yesterday in a telephone interview from St. Louis. He predicted inflation of 2.4 percent at the end of 2015, “well above” the Fed’s 2 percent target.
“That is a break from where most of the committee seems to be, which is a very slow convergence of inflation to target,” he said in a reference to the policy-making Federal Open Market Committee.
A drop in unemployment to 6.1 percent in June, the lowest level in almost six years, increases pressure on the Fed to raise the main interest rate sooner than most officials have estimated, Bullard said.
The St. Louis Fed chief, who calls himself the “North Pole of inflation hawks,” estimates full employment at about 6 percent. A lower level may stoke wage and price pressures, he said. The FOMC’s longer-run projection of unemployment is between 5 percent and 6 percent.
“When unemployment goes into the five range, that is going to below the natural rate,” or the level at which inflation is neither speeding up or slowing down, Bullard said.
“Inflation has been unusually low in 2013 and the first part of 2014” because of temporary circumstances such as European economic weakness.
“Those special factors are wearing off, and the economy is on the upswing,” Bullard said. “Those factors will send the inflation rate above target in 2015.”
Unemployment could drop below 6 percent in “the next couple of jobs reports,” Bullard said…..”
“A slew of financial assets around the world may have entered bubble territory, says New York Times columnist Neil Irwin.
“Welcome to the Everything Boom — and, quite possibly, the Everything Bubble,” he writes. “Around the world, nearly every asset class is expensive by historical standards.”
Among the examples Irwin cites are:
- Spanish bonds. Despite the fact that the country sports one of the weakest economies in the eurozone, its 10-year government bonds yield 2.68 percent. That’s not much above the 2.58 percent offered by 10-year U.S. Treasurys.
- The office building at One Wall Street in New York City sold for $585 million in May, only three months after one industry report estimated it would go for $466 million.
- In April, the French cable TV company Numericable executed the largest junk bond issue in history, with an interest rate of only 4.9 percent.
“We’re in a world where there are very few unambiguously cheap assets,” Russ Koesterich, chief investment strategist at BlackRock, tells Irwin….”
This is a great vid on the natural world, and why you need to have MAD RESPECT for Gaia.
We must change our thought process and find respect…..
“PORT WASHINGTON, N.Y. (MarketWatch) — When good news is good news, and bad news is good news, it’s time to take some money off the table.
Call it irrational exuberance, part two. Like old man river, the stock market just keeps rolling along. Last week it was Dow 17,000. Will this week see the market go even higher?
Before you jump on the bulls’ bandwagon, let me call to your attention a couple of salient statistics. At today’s level, the Dow industrials DJIA -0.72% are up 5% since the beginning of this year. This is on top of a 35% leap in 2013. And in case you are keeping score, the Dow is now a whopping 155% above its low back in March 2009.
All that said, there are a number of warning signs out there that suggest the party may soon be over.
For one thing the economy has not grown anywhere near as much as stocks over the past 5-1/3 years; neither have corporate profits.
Additionally, price-to-earnings ratios are well above average. Robert Shiller, the noted Yale professor, economist and author, thinks that the market today is about at the valuation it was running at in 2008, just before stocks plunged.
In the past, the stock market has managed to avoid such excesses by dropping in price. A decline of 10% (a.k.a. a correction) used to occur about once every 12 months.
This bull market has managed to avoid a correction for 33 months — far longer than average. And correction or no, the current bull market is the fourth-longest since the Crash of 1929.
If you don’t have angst yet, here is another bit of history to chew on: Stocks usually take a header late in the third quarter, as well as in October. Indeed, some of the market’s biggest declines have occurred during this period.
Here is another tidbit: Bond prices are up…..”
“Over the weekend, I reread remarks that U.S. Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen made last week at the International Monetary Fund and also read the transcript of her conversation with Christine Lagarde, the International Monetary Fund’s managing director.
The IMF event brought together a virtual who’s who of the international economic and financial community, and in one of her most significant policy speeches to date, Yellen seized the opportunity to address head-on some of the major questions confronting modern central bankers. Many of these center around the burden of trying to restore, almost singlehandedly, economic growth, more dynamic job creation, price stability, and durable market stability.
There are seven major takeaways from Yellen’s IMF speech. They collectively signal that the Fed will maintain a gradual policy approach for now. Markets, conditioned to expect strong and steadfast monetary support from the Fed, welcome that stance. But Yellen’s statements also point to the need for a delicate transition from policy-induced growth to more organic economic growth. If that transition is mishandled, it would trigger renewed financial and economic instability.
First, Yellen recognizes that we could well be in a world of steady-state interest rates that, in both nominal and inflation-adjusted terms, are lower than what historical experience would suggest.
Second, such rates, as Yellen noted, can “heighten the incentives of financial market participants to reach for yield and take on risk.” Indeed, she added, “such risk-taking can go too far, thereby contributing to fragility in the financial system.”
Third, financial stability cannot be divorced from the pursuit of economic well-being, because “a smoothly operating financial system promotes the efficient allocation of saving and investment, facilitating economic growth and employment.”
Fourth, this situation places even greater importance on the effectiveness of macro-prudential policies as “the main line of defense” against financial excess in the marketplace.
Fifth, while progress has been made in strengthening crisis prevention through better macro-prudential measures, more is needed at the policy level. With that in mind, Yellen stated that she “has not taken monetary policy totally off the table as a measure to be used when financial excesses are developing.” Since macro-prudential tools “have their limitations,” monetary policy should be “actively in the mix” even though it is “not a first line of defense.”
Sixth, central banks have to continue to think imaginatively about additional tools they can deploy to bolster the economy and maintain financial stability given the constraints they face in using interest rates as an effective macroeconomic tool…..”
“This week’s podcast sees the return of Mike Maloney, monetary historian and founder of precious metals broker GoldSilver.com.
Based on historical patterns and the alarming state of our current monetary system, Mike believes the fiat US dollar is in its last years as a viable currency. He sees its replacement as inevitable in the near term — as in by or before the end of the decade:
All of this is converging with the crazy experiments the Federal Reserve has done.
I absolutely believe that there are economic consequences to this that are inescapable. The Fed is not just in a box; a trap has been set. And before the end of this decade, if there is still a US Dollar around it will not be this US Dollar. It will be a dollar that is tied to a very different monetary system.
The last three shifts in our monetary system were little baby steps off of the classical gold standard where it was fully backed. We went down to a 40% reserve ratio with the Federal Reserve in the United States during the Gold Exchange Standard. Then the Bretton Woods system didn’t have a reserve ratio specified, but I believe the dollar was about 8% backed by gold by the time Nixon took us off of gold in ’71. Now, the only backing that the US Dollar has is the promise to tax us all in the future: it is US Treasury bonds, or the Fed doing its quantitative easing and buying mortgage-backed securities.
And how corrupt is the notion that you can give some entity the power to have a check book that has a $0 balance and they can go out and buy anything they want with that and it just creates currency? That is corrupt in itself.
Think about how immoral this is. First of all, the Fed whipped up that currency not out of thin air but by indebting the public. They buy a Treasury bond or a mortgage-backed security, and now they own the mortgage on your house or they own a Treasury bond that you are going to work for in the future and pay taxes to pay off. And so they give all of this currency to the banks, and then they pay them interest to not loan it out or otherwise stimulate the economy. So they are giving them the gift of interest.
By the way, any profits that the Fed has at the end of the year are supposed to get turned over to the Treasury. Well, they are paying the banks interest that reduces the amount that they give to the Treasury by exactly that amount. So in other words, the public is paying those banks interest. That’s where all of the interest comes from. We’re not seeing those profits passed on to the Treasury anymore…..”
“Goldman Sachs Group Inc. brought forward its forecast for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates after U.S. employers added more jobs than forecast, sending five-year Treasuries lower for a fourth day.
The Fed will increase its benchmark in the third quarter of 2015, rather than the first three months of 2016, Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius wrote in a report yesterday. The investment bank joins companies including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in moving up its Fed estimates after U.S. data last week showed the economy added 288,000 workers in June, compared with the 215,000 projected by a Bloomberg News survey of analysts.
“We might see more U.S. banks bringing forward their rate-hike expectations this week,” said Piet Lammens, head of research at KBC Bank NV in Brussels. “It was an important jobs report. It may be that we get more losses for Treasuries and higher yields today.”
The U.S. five-year yield climbed two basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, to 1.75 percent at 6:49 a.m. New York time, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader prices. The 1.63 percent note maturing in June 2019 dropped 3/32, or 94 cents per $1,000 face amount, to 99 13/32.
The two-year yield rose one basis point to 0.52 percent and the 10-year yield was little changed at 2.64 percent after rising 10 basis points last week.
“Mario Draghi’s plan to end the euro area’s lending drought risks missing the target.
While the European Central Bank president says a program to hand as much as 1 trillion euros ($1.4 trillion) to banks has built-in incentives to spur lending to the real economy, analysts from Barclays Plc to Commerzbank AG have doubts on how well it will work. In fact, the measure allows banks to borrow cheaply from the ECB even without increasing credit supply.
Draghi has identified weak lending as an obstacle to the euro area’s recovery and is committed to reversing a slump that has eroded more than 600 billion euros in loans to companies and households since 2009. The risk is that if the latest plan fails, the currency bloc slips closer to deflation and to the need for more radical action such as quantitative easing.
“It’s not the silver bullet,” said Philippe Gudin, chief European economist at Barclays in Paris. “Every incentive for banks to lend is a good thing, but I wouldn’t say I’m reassured that credit will pick up.”
The ECB’s latest plan differs from its previous liquidity measures in the way it tries to nudge banks into lending more to the real economy. In contrast, three-year loans issued in late 2011 and early 2012 were used largely to buy higher-yielding government bonds, a practice known as the carry trade.
Targeted longer-term refinancing operations will offer banks an initial total of as much as 400 billion euros this year that they can hold until 2016 with no strings attached. They can keep it another two years if they meet specific new lending targets set by the ECB, and they can borrow more funds starting in March if they exceed those thresholds. At his monthly press conference on July 3, Draghi said the total take-up could be 1 trillion euros.
“If this sounds a little complicated, I think you’re right,” he told reporters in Frankfurt. “But I’m confident that the banks will quickly understand that even though it’s complicated, it’s also quite attractive.”
Still, to keep the initial batch of funding for the full term, banks aren’t required to expand their loan books. They are only obliged to boost credit if they wish to borrow more cash starting next year, when the ECB will provide as much as 3 euros for every 1 euro of net new lending.
“NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Investors have been content to take a summer slumber as central bankers sing easy-money lullabies. But don’t discount the possibility that a strong jobs report could shake traders awake.
It would take a particularly strong U.S. nonfarm payrolls report on Thursday to alter market expectations about the economy. But should it sharply exceed expectations of 215,000 nonfarm jobs and a steady 6.3% unemployment rate, it could force a rethink toward a Federal Reserve that’s less committed to low-rate policies, investors and strategists say.
Wednesday’s report from Automatic Data Processing Inc. provided one surprise:281,000 new private-sector jobs last month, and the most since November 2012. The report is often used as an early indicator of the payrolls number. Despite its mixed record in predicting that part of the official monthly jobs report, it’s the latest in a string of improving data points that many say shows an economy gaining steam.
“The risks are on the upside in terms of the number of jobs created” after that ADP report, said Robert Tipp, chief investment strategist at Prudential Fixed Income.
Think about Fed rate expectations like a trip in the family minivan. Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen and her policy committee are in the driver’s seat, slowly and steadily cruising toward the first rate hike. The numbers on employment and inflation are quietly cooperating in the back seat. But if data keep improving more rapidly, that will add to the “are we there yet?” clamors, and Yellen eventually may speed up.
For now, Yellen has been keeping the steering wheel steady…”
“Many financial commentators are concerned about banks loosening their standards on loans, and Bill Gross, chief investment officer at Pimco, is one of them.
“There are bubbly aspects in the terms and conditions of bank loans,” he told CNBC.
Financial institutions are issuing covenant-lite loans at a record pace. Covenants are financial restrictions placed on companies that borrow to give lenders assurance that they will receive their money back. Covenant-lite loans carry fewer of these restrictions.
U.S. cov-lite loan issuance totaled $83.6 billion for 2014 through mid-June, up 41 percent from $59.4 billion in the same period of 2013, according to Dealogic, CNBC reports.
“There can be easy types of covenants and restrictions,” Gross said. “Certainly the Fed sees, and we see as well, that over the past 12 to 18 months those standards have eased and perhaps are a little bit bubbly.”
He maintains that the prices of most risk assets stand at a “normal level if the new neutral [level for federal funds] stays low at 2 percent, which is where we expect.”
The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, which regulates banks, also is concerned about the easing of banks’ lending policies….”
“A few notes first off…the US Dollar Index has broken below 80.0, but for this to mean anything, the US Dollar must close below 79.40 on a weekly basis. The critical levels of upper support and resistance are so tight right now, that the volatility we have seen has caused many players to go long when its wrong and go short when they should abort. The trend finally does “appear” as if the 79.40 level will break, but nothing is better than waiting for confirmation than speculation.
If the US Dollar Index does go lower, then this would allow US exports to become cheaper and further enhance the stock market. The note below is very important, so please consider this: a decline in the US Dollar Index from 80.0 to 73.0 represents a loss of 8.75%. If the S&P were to retain its S&P/US Dollar Index valuation, then it would have to rise from 1960 to 2148. So even though the S&P could rise to this level, which remains our longer-term target into August 2015 next year (Please Google Contacting Fibonacci Spiral (CFS) and CFS chiral inversion with my name to get an understanding of this longer-term stock market cycle and its implications for how things unfold into 2020), it merely becomes an extension based upon a declining currency. If the US economy strengthens, then this number could become even higher.
The outcome for such an event if it does unfold as expected (things have been going as expected, just a few bumps in the road have happened) will result in many other regions of the globe experiencing sharp reductions in global GDP and rising energy prices (since oil is primarily priced in US Dollars). Rising energy costs are instrumental in throwing the global economy into a deflationary spiral, coupled to demographics so a sharp spike in energy prices to $150-160/barrel (our target for next year) is seen as the catalyst. Based upon the chiral inversion that the CFS had last year, it is expected the market tops out next year, followed by a series of lower lows in 2016, 2018, 2019 and 2020 (3,2,1,1 to complete the Fibonacci spiral). This would be expected for the broad stock market indices of the US and not necessarily expected for commodities or their related stocks, particularly gold and silver.
A shift into gold and silver as a store of value will happen en masse once people see that governments will do whatever they can to try to steal the wealth of citizens. This will raise their sought value, alongside stocks that mine gold and silver.
The very last few charts of this update provides an update of the Elliott Wave count for the S&P 500 Index. I did not understand how this count was possible because I really doubted it. So far, it seems to be holding out and does have some interesting twists over the next 10-13 months if things continue to unfold in somewhat of an expected fashion, then the period of time between 2015 and 2020 will not be nice.
If we do get a 5 year period of cycling deflation/inflation, with the overall trend being deflationary, then keeping money in cash equivalent funds will be of utmost importance for preserving wealth. For those who can time things right, buying near the coming bottoms and selling near their short-term tops stand to generate significant returns. For those that have pension funds or RRSP’s LIRA’s etc. that are are defined contribution plans (i.e. YOUR money, not money thrown into corporate or unionized pots that are invested for everyone (think pyramid scheme)) the above may work well. In the end, those with defined contribution plans for their own pensions may see government take them over and put them into a pot…this is out of everyone’s control, but one can only do the best to preserve what they have.
Continue to pay down debt and minimally invest money into RRSP’s or LIRA’s as this could be taken over by government. Keep money in on hand investments and of course, continue to accumulate gold and silver bullion. This piece should keep everyone afloat with knowledge for what to expect over the coming 12-14 months out.
I thought I would include the monthly chart of copper, because today it broke out of this very long diametric triangle structure, that has a measured move up to $4.80/pound if this analysis is correct. Bollinger bands are not providing any indication of trend, but a pop above the upper trend line (which is what has happened today) should provide further bullishness in this metal. Nickel and other base metals are rising, so copper is one of the most critical to confirm this trend. Full stochastics 1, 2 and 3 are shown below in order of descent, with the %K beneath the %D in all three instances. Extrapolation of the %K trend in stochastic 1 has yet to rise above the %D, but follow through over the next few months in copper prices would be enough to indicate a change in trend. The latter half of the diametric triangle pattern (not a diametric Elliott Wave triangle) has seen an evermore narrowing of the trading range in price. Given the way everything is expected to occur over the coming year (higher inflation due to a declining US Dollar, which further fans the global economy due to more potential for the US to export goods at cheaper prices), it stands to reason that copper prices head higher. We have one copper stock (producer/explorer) that we follow that trades well below $1/share but has significant opportunity for rising in price, pending it is not bought out beforehand.
The daily chart of the gold/silver ratio is shown below, with several price excursions beyond lower Bollinger bands over the past week strongly suggests an oversold condition has been generated, which should see gold outperform silver over the course of the next few weeks. Full stochastics 1, 2 and 3 are shown below in order of descent, with the %K above the %D in 1 and beneath the %D in 2 and 3. Although there could be a change in trend with respect to the ratio, weakness could remain in effect, with a longer-term trend being down (i.e. Silver would outperform gold under this scenario).
The daily chart of the gold/oil ratio index is shown below, with the US Dollar Index denoted in black. Bollinger bands are providing no indication of trend, while the %K in all three stochastics are above the %D, indicating gold is likely to continue outperforming oil over the next 5-7 weeks (based upon the depth of the %K in stochastic 3). The ratio is likely to only rise no higher than 14 over the short-term, which would represent 12% higher gold prices than current levels, assuming oil remains fixed around $105/barrel…that would work out to $1484/ounce, which is right in line with the expected high for gold over the course of the next 12-14 months. Since gold stocks generally outperform gold by a factor of 3, that would suggest the HUI tacks on around 36% above current levels, which works out to a move to 320. Things finally appear to be pointing towards higher commodity prices, but remember, THIS IS ONLY A TRADE UNTIL AROUND THIS TIME NEXT YEAR, because from late 2015 and into 2020, a severe global contraction will likely result in a bear market across many fronts. Precious metals are likely to rise in value as fewer people trust government and a rush into tangibles happens.
The weekly chart of the HUI/gold ratio is shown below, with gold denoted in black. This is probably the most important chart in the Universe for those who hold precious metal stocks, because it gives an indication of whether or not shares will outperform gold on a relative basis. Bollinger bands are extremely tight as a base has been built over the past 12 months. Based upon this, a move higher is very likely since lower lows did not happen. Full stochastics 1, 2 and 3 are shown below in order of descent, with the %K beneath the %D in 1 and above the %D in 2 and 3. Down trend lines for the %K in stochastics 2 and 3 are included which illustrates the %K in stochastic 3 breaking above its downtrend line. Notice the %K in stochastic 2 was recently repelled by this downtrend line, yet has curled up and appears set to break higher. ….”
“Financial markets sure did well in the first half of the year, despite an unexpected share of economic disappointments, policy misses and geopolitical drama. They will need better news in the next six months to sustain that performance, and if they succeed it is unlikely that they will repeat those same, broad-based gains.
At the start of the year, few expected the U.S. economy to shrink by a stunning 2.9 percent in the first quarter, Russia to annex Crimea, and Iraq to fall victim to a sectarian insurgency — all of which served to amplify the challenges facing already-weak economies.
More predictable was the series of policy slips such as disappointing progress on Japan’s “third arrow” reforms and a persistently unbalanced macroeconomic stance elsewhere that relied excessively and for too long on monetary tools alone.
Yet you would be hard pressed to point to many markets that suffered any meaningful consequences. Rather than sell off, global equities have gained, as have corporate bonds, commodities and emerging-markets securities.
Historically, such broad-based gains would suggest that the global economy is improving. Not this time. Instead, analysts spent much of the first half not only lowering their growth estimates for 2014 but scaling back their assessment of even longer-term growth for a number of countries — including the U.S.
The answer to this puzzle is found in yet another asset class that did well in the first half — government bonds,including those issued by Germany and the U.S., the benchmark risk-free assets. The fact that government bonds rallied in the first half of the year speaks to the continued influence that central-bank policy wields in financial markets.
Motivated both by long-standing concerns about sluggish growth and newer worries about price deflation, the European Central Bank joined others in committing to a more stimulative monetary policy over a longer period of time…..”