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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

Debt Ceiling Crisis “Collective Insanity”

“A default because of a failure to raise the Federal debt ceiling would be an act of collective insanity,” Buiter, London-based chief economist for Citigroup, wrote in a note dated July 28. “The implications of even a technical U.S. default are likely to be severe both for the U.S. and the world economy, involving a widespread rise in public and private funding costs, a generalized fall in asset prices, and a large hit to economic growth.”

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Today’s Winners and Losers

No. Ticker % Change
1 OSBC 32.04
2 RBY 26.17
3 GST 23.33
4 GU 23.20
5 JVA 22.85
6 DVAX 22.22
7 LABL 20.67
8 CLUB 20.58
9 AXTI 20.14
10 RNOW 19.91
11 RGR 19.44
12 GMCR 18.83
13 SKX 16.78
14 CACH 15.97
15 GNC 15.45
16 CLW 14.33
17 CROX 14.31
18 CTHR 13.89
19 USMO 13.79
20 LSI 13.66
21 TBI 13.51
22 NURO 13.31
23 TNC 13.03
24 IRE 12.69
25 LIZ 12.45
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No. Ticker % Change
1 SQNS -40.38
2 TQNT -24.58
3 FBC -21.49
4 THQI -21.41
5 ICAD -21.23
6 CLWR -20.76
7 MSHL -20.73
8 SPRT -20.52
9 ALU -20.16
10 AKAM -18.45
11 S -18.22
12 HRC -17.62
13 QTM -17.25
14 IPG -16.49
15 LMLP -16.01
16 STRA -15.77
17 TNCC -15.57
18 AEA -14.13
19 IMAX -14.00
20 OSK -13.99
21 BABY -11.88
22 OSTK -11.39
23 HRBN -10.58
24 CPSS -9.65
25 GTI -9.38

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S&P Futures Rise

They are higher by 4 now, despite a weak Asia. Nasdaq futures are up 7.5.

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Flash: Asian Markets Decidedly Lower

Australia -1.26%

Japan -1.1%

Taiwan -1%

Korea -0.75%

You get the picture.

Related: Conversely, S&P futs are higher by 2.75.

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Today’s ETF Winners and Losers

No. Ticker % Change
1 TVIX 10.83
2 SOXS 10.29
3 TYP 8.41
4 SRTY 8.25
5 TZA 7.69
6 BXDC 6.59
7 DPK 6.53
8 SSG 6.13
9 SQQQ 6.12
10 DRV 5.94
11 SKK 5.86
12 DUST 5.69
13 VIXY 5.52
14 BGZ 5.50
15 VXX 5.45
16 FAZ 5.43
17 EPV 5.42
18 LHB 5.42
19 MWN 5.32
20 SPXU 5.30
21 TWM 5.18
22 SDD 5.12
23 EDZ 5.12
24 SIJ 5.09
25 MZZ 4.94
———————–
No. Ticker % Change
1 SOXL -10.24
2 TYH -8.14
3 TNA -7.55
4 COWL -7.25
5 MWJ -7.15
6 TQQQ -6.77
7 DZK -6.73
8 NUGT -6.44
9 USD -6.11
10 DRN -5.97
11 IGN -5.72
12 BGU -5.70
13 ROM -5.61
14 FAS -5.47
15 UPRO -5.39
16 XIV -5.26
17 UWM -5.16
18 LBJ -5.04
19 MVV -5.01
20 ERX -4.96
21 PXQ -4.94
22 EDC -4.86
23 UKK -4.75
24 UYM -4.64
25 QLD -4.56

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Flash: Panera Bread prelim $1.18 vs $1.17 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $451 mln vs $450.00 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

Panera Bread beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 EPS above consensus; guides FY11 EPS in-line (129.28 +0.14)
Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $1.18 per share, $0.01 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $1.17; revenues rose 19.3% year/year to $451 mln vs the $450 mln consensus. In Q2, Company-owned comparable net bakery-cafe sales increased 4.4%, franchise-operated comparable net bakery-cafe sales increased 3.6%, and system-wide comparable net bakery-cafe sales increased 3.9% compared to the comparable period in fiscal 2010. Average check growth was comprised of retail price increases of approximately 2.5% and negative mix impact of approximately (1.0)%.

Co issues upside guidance for Q3, sees EPS of $0.92-0.94 vs. $0.92 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate. This target assumes transaction growth of 1.5% to 2.0% and average check growth of approximately 2.5% to 3.0% on average year-over-year pricing of approximately 2.5%.

Co issues in-line guidance for FY11, sees EPS of $4.54-4.58 vs. $4.55 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate. The Company is revising its target for Company-owned comparable bakery-cafe sales growth to the low end of its previously targeted range, approximately 4.5% for fiscal 2011. For fiscal 2011, the Company is expecting operating margin expansion at the high-end of its previously targeted range of 0 to 50 basis points versus the prior year.

The Company is initially targeting its fiscal 2012 diluted earnings per share growth rate at the lower end of its long-term earnings growth target of 15% to 20%, based on inflationary pressures and the Company’s deployment of capital to date, which as of today is less than 1% accretive to fiscal 2012 earnings growth. The Company continues to seek to use its cash at an appropriate return as it has for the last several years. The Company’s fiscal 2012 EPS target assumes Company-owned comparable bakery-cafe sales growth of 4.0% to 5.0%, very little if any year-over-year operating margin improvement, and approximately 100 to 110 system-wide new unit openings.

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Flash: Las Vegas Sands prelim $0.54 vs $0.44 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $2.35 bln vs $2.21 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.54 per share, $0.10 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.44; revenues rose 47.1% year/year to $2.35 bln vs the $2.21 bln consensus. Consolidated adjusted property EBITDA in 2Q11 increased 90.4% to $901.6 million, compared to $473.5 million in the year-ago quarter. Consolidated adjusted property EBITDA margin increased 870 basis points to 38.4% in 2Q11, compared to 29.7% in the second quarter of 2010. Marina Bay Sands adj. EBITDA margin 55% vs. 48.6% in Q1 and 54.6% in 4Q10; Las Vegas rev +18% vs. -8% in Q1 and +17% in 4Q10. “In Macau, we experienced increased gaming volumes in our Sands China property portfolio, while adjusted property EBITDA margin expanded to reach a market-leading 33.0%. The growth of our higher margin mass table and slot businesses, together with the contribution from the important non-gaming (hotel, retail and convention) components of our integrated resort business model, continue to drive significant margin improvement at Sands China… In Singapore, Marina Bay Sands produced a record $405.4 million of adjusted property EBITDA during the quarter and an EBITDA margin of 55.0%. Record VIP, mass gaming and slot volumes coupled with steady growth in non-gaming revenue streams including hotel, food and beverage, retail and entertainment reflect the broad appeal of the property to Singapore’s visitors from across the Asian region.”

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Flash:Buffalo Wild Wings misses by $0.03, beats on revs

Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.58 per share, $0.03 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.61; revenues rose 26.4% year/year to $184.1 mln vs the $176.6 mln consensus. Co states, “… In the second half of 2011, we expect to open 29 company-owned restaurants in the United States and three in Canada and our franchisees should open about 37 locations, attaining our 13% unit growth goal for the year. Our net earnings growth for the first half of 2011 is over 29%, exceeding our stated annual goal of over 18% growth. With the strength of our bottom-line performance to date, the NFL season intact, and continuing same-store sales momentum, we should achieve net earnings growth of more than 20% for the year.”

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Flash: Amazon.com prelim $0.41 vs $0.34 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $9.91 bln vs $9.37 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

Amazon.com beats by $0.07, beats on revs; guides Q3 revs in-line (59.62 +0.14)
Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.41 per share, $0.07 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.34; revenues rose 50.8% year/year to $9.91 bln vs the $9.37 bln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for Q3, sees Q3 revs of $10.3-11.1 bln vs. $10.39 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate. Operating income is expected to be between $20 million and $170 million, or between 93% decline and 37% decline compared with third quarter 2010… Second quarter 2011 net income was positively impacted by equity-method investment activity of $15 million, including a $49 million gain on the sale of an equity position. “Low prices, expanding selection, fast delivery and innovation are driving the fastest growth we’ve seen in over a decade… Kindle 3G with Special Offers has quickly become our bestselling Kindle at only $139. Customers love the convenience of a 3G reader — no hunting for or paying for Wi-Fi hotspots. Amazon picks up the tab for the 3G wireless, so you have no monthly payments or annual contracts.”

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Greenberg Clipboard News: GMCR

Herb Greenberg is going to discuss accounting questions, regular eyebrow raisers, for GMCR—next on CNBC.

The stock is up 0.2% on that news.

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Today’s Winners and Losers

Market cap min of $500mill

No. Ticker % Change Market Cap
1 SANM 22.56 742,320,000
2 RSH 18.95 1,390,000,000
3 LXK 17.44 2,280,000,000
4 HLX 16.39 1,950,000,000
5 XRS 15.99 811,070,000
6 VLTR 15.27 564,590,000
7 GEOY 15.17 784,850,000
8 GRA 13.97 3,360,000,000
9 GPI 13.89 960,620,000
10 BXS 11.98 1,060,000,000
11 TLAB 10.98 1,520,000,000
12 ODP 10.80 977,050,000
13 WFT 10.42 15,240,000,000
14 YOKU 10.00 3,770,000,000
15 BRCM 9.62 18,720,000,000
16 JJSF 9.40 942,900,000
17 FNSR 8.68 1,680,000,000
18 CEVA 8.61 692,920,000
19 OMX 8.56 592,320,000
20 SVU 8.10 1,810,000,000
21 CIGX 8.03 552,100,000
22 CNC 7.74 1,710,000,000
23 XUE 7.61 523,990,000
24 MCP 7.15 5,020,000,000
25 DGI 7.08 1,170,000,000
26 DAC 7.01 511,630,000
—————————————–
No. Ticker % Change Market Cap
1 AKS -15.85 1,710,000,000
2 PCX -11.87 2,230,000,000
3 UIS -11.54 1,090,000,000
4 PCAR -11.19 18,420,000,000
5 ADVS -10.75 1,410,000,000
6 IOC -10.68 3,100,000,000
7 CSL -9.81 2,970,000,000
8 LII -9.73 2,200,000,000
9 MLI -9.73 1,710,000,000
10 ARAY -9.18 507,710,000
11 STM -8.67 8,030,000,000
12 X -8.53 6,370,000,000
13 ITW -8.52 28,510,000,000
14 SCOR -8.19 813,820,000
15 CRDN -8.03 880,710,000
16 CPSI -7.81 749,630,000
17 NFLX -7.71 14,790,000,000
18 WAT -7.70 8,900,000,000
19 RCII -7.57 1,900,000,000
20 IPAR -7.53 684,020,000
21 NUVA -7.20 1,280,000,000
22 OMI -7.10 2,150,000,000
23 FMER -6.58 1,820,000,000
24 TNAV -6.49 865,090,000
25 WAC -6.44 690,690,000

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GASPARINO SCOOP: No Default

Charlie Meatballs is out with his latest scoop, suggesting the White House has assured top bankers that the U.S. will NOT default, even if a deal is not reached by 8/2/11.

Disclaimer: I’m half Italian.

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