$URBN Falls on Weak Quarterly Results

“NEW YORK (TheStreet) – Urban Outfitters (URBN_), owner of Anthropologie, Free People and its name brand, fell in after-hours trading as sales growth fell short of analyst expectations.

The Philadelphia-based specialty retailer said revenue rose 14% for the three months ended April 30 to a record $648.1 million, less than an average forecast of $655.1 million, according to according to Yahoo! (YHOO_) Finance. Profit jumped 39%…”

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“Americans are on the move again.

Thanks to the slowly brightening employment picture, along with the uptick in the housing market, more and more people are packing up and relocating. And the pace is likely to pick up this summer, the peak season for moving, according to industry professionals.

It’s a far cry from just a few years ago.

“Two years ago, it seemed like everything was falling off the face of the Earth,” said Randy Shacka, president of Two Men and a Truck, a franchise moving company.” But monthly payroll growth averaging 208,000 is turning that around—and spurring job-related moves.

Even though overall moving activity is still below where it was in 2009-2010, the number of people moving for a new job or transfer is on the rise. Moves for those reasons totaled 3.5 million in 2011-2012, up from 2.8 million the prior year and the highest since 2006-2007, according to Census Bureau data. And the number of people moving because they had lost a job or were looking for work declined.

The recovering housing market is also giving people the flexibility to move by making it easier for people to sell their homes. The National Association of Realtors’ chief economist says that with relatively few houses on the market, double-digit gains in housing prices are possible in 2013. And that, in turn, is spurring construction—making moving easier….”

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“Home Depot Inc. (HD), the largest U.S. home-improvement retailer, posted first-quarter profit that topped analysts’ estimates and raised its forecast for earnings this year as the housing rebound boosts renovation spending.

Net income in the quarter ended May 5 rose 18 percent to $1.23 billion, or 83 cents a share, from $1.04 billion, or 68 cents, a year earlier, the Atlanta-based company said today in a statement. Analysts projected 76 cents, the average of 25 estimates in a Bloomberg survey.

Home Depot is benefiting from rising U.S. home prices that are giving homeowners the confidence to start projects and spend more. Revenue rose 7.4 percent to $19.1 billion, topping analysts’ $18.6 billion estimate, as the average customer purchase increased 5 percent to $57.24.

Spending rose on “consumers’ confidence to invest in higher ticket projects,” John Tomlinson, an analyst at ITG Investment Research in New York, said today in an e-mail. His company doesn’t rate shares.

Profit this year will be $3.52 a share, up from a previous estimate of $3.37, the company said today. The guidance includes the effect of share repurchases the company already has made and plans to make this year. Analysts estimated $3.54, on average.

Residential real-estate prices rose in February by the most since May 2006, with the S&P/Case-Shiller (SPCS20) index of house values in 20 cities up 9.3 percent from a year ago.

Home Depot rose 3.8 percent to $79.68 at 7:26 a.m. in New York. The shares advanced 24 percent this year through yesterday, compared with a 17 percent gain by the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index.

Transactions Increase…”

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“Business at executive-recruitment companies is improving, buoyed by increasing confidence among corporate leaders and a stabilization in hiring for senior positions in the financial-services industry.

Heidrick & Struggles International Inc. (HSII) and Russell Reynolds Associates say they see some increase in demand, a trend that was echoed in a recent survey of consultants by William Blair & Co., an independent investment firm. Meanwhile, sentiment among chief executive officers strengthened in April to the highest level in almost two years, as the Chief Executive magazine confidence index rose to 6.07 from 5.55 the prior month, based on an e-mail survey conducted by the magazine.

Rising CEO confidence is a “key indicator” that’s helping to boost demand in the executive-recruitment industry, saidTimothy Ghriskey, chief investment officer at Solaris Asset Management in New York, which manages more than $1.5 billion. “In the mid-to-later stages of an economic expansion, competition for business leadership intensifies, prompting more companies to employ search firms to attract talent.”

Gross domestic product expanded at a 2.5 percent annualized rate in the three months ended March 31, following a 0.4 percent gain in the fourth quarter, according to the Commerce Department. Growth was slower than the 3 percent median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Revenue Growth…”

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“Best Buy Co. (BBY), the world’s largest consumer-electronics retailer, posted an $81 million first-quarter net loss as the company lowers prices to compete with online rivals.

The loss of 24 cents a share in the quarter ended May 4 compares with net income of $158 million, or 46 cents, a year earlier, the Richfield, Minnesota-based company said today in a statement….”

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“Gold declined, following its first gain in eight sessions, as speculation the U.S. Federal Reserve may taper its bond-buying plan curbed demand for the metal as a protection of wealth.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will discuss the economic outlook in congressional testimony and the central bank will publish minutes of its latest meeting tomorrow. Fed Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said yesterday the economy has improved “quite a lot.” Gold futures rose 1.4 percent yesterday, the first gain since May 8, after Moody’s Investors Service said U.S. policy makers must address debt woes to avoid a credit-rating cut this year.

“Market participants should be watching the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s speech and the Federal Open Market Committee minutes, which are expected to give rise to concerns of the continuation of the QE program,” analysts at Hyderabad, India-based Karvy Comtrade Ltd. wrote today in a report, referring to quantitative easing. “This would weigh down on gold prices.”

Gold for June delivery fell 0.5 percent to $1,376.70 an ounce by 7:47 a.m. on the Comex in New York. Prices slid to $1,336.30 yesterday, the lowest since April 18, before rebounding. Futures trading volume was 31 percent above the average in the past 100 days for this time of day, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Gold for immediate delivery in London declined 1.1 percent to $1,378.80.

ETP Holdings…”

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“West Texas Intermediate crude declined from the highest closing price in seven weeks on speculation that supplies will remain sufficient in the U.S. even if stockpiles decreased as forecast last week.

Futures fell as much as 0.5 percent in New York after advancing for a fourth day yesterday. U.S. crude supplies fell by 800,000 barrels last week, according to a Bloomberg News survey before a report tomorrow from the Energy Information Administration. That would still leave inventories 3 percent higher than a year ago. The industry-funded American Petroleum Institute is scheduled to release its stockpile data today.

“There’s nothing here to fundamentally justify a sustained price push at the moment, while expectations of future supplies are rather comfortable,” said Andrey Kryuchenkov, an analyst at VTB Capital in London.

WTI for June delivery was at $96.21 a barrel, down 50 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 12:15 p.m. London time. The contract expires today. The volume of all contracts traded was 7.3 percent below the 100-day average. The more active July future fell 52 cents to $96.42. Front-month prices increased 69 cents yesterday, or 0.7 percent, to $96.71, the highest close since April 2.

Brent for July settlement slid 71 cents to $104.09 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark grade was at a premium of $7.68 to WTI for the same month, down from $7.87 yesterday.

Fuel Supplies….”

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“U.K. inflation slowed more than economists forecast in April to a seven-month low and producer prices rose the least since 2009 as fuel costs fell.

Consumer prices rose 2.4 percent from a year earlier, down from 2.8 percent in March, theOffice for National Statistics said in London today. The median forecast of 35 economists in a Bloomberg News survey was 2.6 percent. Core inflation also cooled, while factory-gate prices increased at the slowest annual pace in 3 1/2 years. The pound weakened….”

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“China’s trade surplus is one-tenth the official $61 billion reported so far this year after accounting for fake transactions used to disguise hot-money inflows, Bank of America Corp. says.

The true surplus is about $6 billion, according to Lu Ting, Bank of America’s head of Greater China economics in Hong Kong. That would be the smallest for January-April since the nation posted a $10.8 billion deficit in 2004.

Lu’s calculations suggest the surplus shrank instead of tripling from a year earlier, a sign that global demand is restraining rather than boosting the world’s second-largest economy. Bank of America’s estimate underscores the size of possible discrepancies in the trade data, which has been disputed by analysts for four months, and broader skepticism about Chinese statistics from gross domestic product to jobs.

“Growth is weak in China now — the overstated export growth means the real growth is slightly weaker,” said Shen Jianguang, chief Asia economist at Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd. in Hong Kong. “We are expecting to see a fairly big drop in export growth in the coming months” as regulators crack down on so-called hot-money inflows, he said.

The government reported a trade surplus of $18.8 billion for the first four months of 2012.

Money Flows…”

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“The Reserve Bank of Australia cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low this month to boost businesses weakened by the currency’s sustained strength, even as households reacted to earlier reductions.

“Conditions in the business sector, as assessed in surveys, generally had remained below average, possibly in part because the exchange rate had remained high,” the RBA said inminutes of its May 7 meeting released today in Sydney. “Increasingly, the household sector had shown signs of responding to” lower rates….”

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“Australia’s dollar held its biggest gain in two months against the greenback before Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke speaks in Congress tomorrow.

The so-called Aussie has rebounded from its worst two-week loss in more than a year as traders bet Bernanke may counter speculation U.S. policy makers are closer to reducing bond purchases. The currency fell earlier before the Reserve Bank of Australia released minutes from this month’s meeting when it cut interest rates to a record. New Zealand’s kiwi dollar rose, building on its biggest advance in eight months.

“The way I see Bernanke playing this is that he’s just going to come out and defend his easy policies,” said Chris Weston, the chief market strategist at IG Markets in Melbourne. “People are looking to cover shorts on the Aussie dollar ahead of that, and that’s why we’re seeing the move up.” A short position is a bet that an asset will decrease in value. Weston said he expectsAustralia’s currency to strengthen toward 98.70 U.S. cents….”

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“The yen weakened against the dollar after Japan’s economy minister backed away from comments that drove the currency to its biggest gain in three weeks. The pound slumped and European stocks fell while grains and precious metals led commodities lower.

Japan’s currency dropped 0.5 percent to 102.78 per dollar at 7:26 a.m. in New York. The pound depreciated 0.7 percent to $1.5147, a six-week low, after U.K. inflation slowed more than economists forecast in April. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index declined 0.5 percent and Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures lost 0.2 percent. Corn, wheat and gold lost more than 1 percent. The 10-year Treasury yield slid one basis point to 1.95 percent…”

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World Markets

Currencies

Commodities

USD Libor

Euribor

Yields for Italy, Spain, France,  and Germany …

“The Federal Reserve is artificially boosting the economy with its massive easing campaign, and it’s all going to end in tears, says legendary investor Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings.

“Right now, we have a very artificial situation. You have the central bank in America printing staggering amounts of money,” he tells Newsmax TV in an exclusive interview.

“There’s this gigantic artificial flow of money floating into our economy, and this is going to end badly because it is artificial.”

So how long will the Fed’s quantitative easing ($85 billion of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities purchases a month) last?

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has said it’s going to continue till 2015, Rogers says. But some Fed officials have voiced hope that QE can be curtailed starting this year.

These folks “are not happy about this staggering amount of money printing because they know it’s going to have bad consequences,” says Rogers, author of the new book “Street Smarts: Adventures on the Road and in the Markets.”…”

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Upgrades – ABT, ACN, NTES, JCP, KORS, P, PCLN, TMUS, TMHC

Downgrades  – AMTD, BAC, BBBY, BLK, EAT, SCHW, KSU, LEAP, LOW, NSR, RHT, RT, SNDK,

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For all intensive purposes it seems that sliver and gold bulls are about to write themselves out of history. As you already know, gold and silver have been in bearish mode for quite some time. With stocks rising everyday it is time to turn in the towel.

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El-Erian on Gold

“(Reuters) – Generic drugmaker Actavis Inc, which has been the subject of takeover speculation, plans to buy specialty pharmaceutical company Warner Chilcott Plc for $5 billion in stock.

The companies said the deal had an enterprise value, including debt, of $8.5 billion.

The move comes as Actavis has spurned approaches from Canadian pharmaceutical companyValeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc and Mylan Inc. Analysts have said that if Actavis were to buy Warner Chilcott, it would kill the chances of its being taken over.

Warner Chilcott shareholders will receive 0.16 share of the combined company. The companies said that would equate to $20.08 per share, based on Actavis’ closing share price of $125.50 on Friday….”

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