“The history of the stock market has pretty convincingly proven that “what goes up, must come down.”
When it comes to hyper-growth technology companies, this is particularly true. At the very least, most of these stocks hit an incredible peak before pulling back and consolidating for years. Some of these companies, such as IBM (NYSE: IBM [FREE Stock Trend Analysis]), subsequently enter another growth phase where investors are once again rewarded by an appreciating stock price.
Most of the world’s iconic companies, however, have been incapable of replicating their early staggering returns on a year-to-year basis. No matter how great the business, these stocks tend to go through an incredible period of appreciation during the company’s growth phase and then settle into uneventful trading ranges as the company matures.
This scenario is most often reserved for the truly exceptional companies. Many other former high-fliers have seen their stock prices fall precipitously from once lofty perches.
Examples of this phenomenon in technology include Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), which have settled into trading ranges, and Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) and Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), which have seen their stock prices plunge. Today’s technology high-fliers almost assuredly await a similar fate, although it is almost impossible to call a top and predict exactly when it will happen.
The chances of stocks such as Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) going up in perpetuity, however, are slim.
The chart below plots the return history of Apple versus Microsoft. If nothing else, the current correlation between the two stocks is eerie (if you are long Apple). The chart begs the question, have we seen a top in Apple, and is the company the next Microsoft?
The question that investors should ask themselves in order to attempt to answer the preceding question is can Apple continue to innovate and create new markets? Microsoft’s growth phase was driven by the rapid adoption of Windows and Office within the context of the exploding PC market. Similarly, Apple’s growth has been driven by the rapid adoption of iPhone and iPad within the context of the exploding mobile market….”
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