“China’s unexpected surge in exports last month renewed concern from analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., UBS AG and Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. (ANZ) that statistics from the nation can be unreliable.
The 14.1 percent jump from a year earlier was the biggest positive surprise since March 2011, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The increase didn’t match goods movements through ports and imports by trading partners according to UBS, while Goldman Sachs and Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd. cited a divergence from overseas orders in a manufacturing index.
Smaller trade gains could signal a less robust recovery from a seven-quarter slowdown just as Australian Treasurer Wayne Swan says the economic rebound is a sign of improving global demand. Accurate statistics from the world’s second-biggest economy are increasingly important for domestic and foreign investors and for China’s government, ANZ’s Liu Li-Gang says.
“China’s influence on the global economy has become bigger, so not only Chinese policy makers but also business people and the rest of the world need better data,” said Liu, Hong Kong- based chief economist for Greater China, who formerly worked for the World Bank. “Unreliable data could have a negative impact on resource allocation and business planning.”
The Beijing-based customs administration, which reported the December trade figures on Jan. 10, said it couldn’t immediately respond to a faxed request from Bloomberg News for comment on the banks’ skepticism.
The Shanghai Composite Index, China’s benchmark stock gauge, rose 3.1 percent after the head of the securities regulator said the nation can increase the amount foreigners can invest in Chinese securities….”
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