Most Accurate Forecaster Sees Lethargic U.S. Expansion

“…Shapiro sees monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve benchmark interest rate at almost zero, as having a limited near-term impact on growth. And he considers the $1 trillion U.S. fiscal deficit an important drag on future expansion.

“There is an element of repetitiveness in being an economist these days, because adjustments that affect the economy are all very long-term and are not going to change anytime soon,” he says.

Shapiro has absorbed his firm’s reluctance to “get drawn into the ‘rah, rah, rah’ of the moment,” says his boss, Maria Fiorini Ramirez, founder and chief executive officer of her eponymous firm. A native of San Giuseppe Vesuviano, Italy, she says she emphasizes the importance of building relationships with an array of economic players, including state and municipal treasurers, in order to gauge risks for clients….”

Full article