“As investors’ and traders’ attention spans diminish at ever-increasing speed, it is perhaps useful to step back and survey a landscape of global economic growth from a longer-term panorama in order to grasp the real trend and the real unusualness of our current environment. UBS’ Art Cashin, while not 800 years old, reflects on such a long-term cycle providing some perspective on our belief that “economic growth be regarded as a continuous process that will persist forever,” opining that perhaps, based on the study below (Is US Economic Growth Over?), we “could well be a unique episode in human history rather than a guarantee of endless future advance at the same rate.” Of course, that would never fit with the current meme that growth is credit is life, but nevertheless well worth some introspection as we give thanks this week.
Via UBS’ Art Cashin:
An Absolutely Fascinating Study – A friend of mine pointed me to an absolutely fascinating study. My friend felt it added credibility to his thesis that civilization and economics are subject to an 800 year cycle. My friend likes to cite lots of markers to prove/justify his thesis. He talks of the Dark Ages, the Age of Discovery, and the Age of Enlightenment as some of those markers. It is an entertaining hypothesis and, some day, if there is enough time, space and mental lubricant available, I may outline his hypothesis (at least as far as I can understand it).
In the meantime, I am grateful that he pointed me to a study by Professor Robert J. Gordon of Northwestern University. The study is published by the Centre for Economic Policy Research. While I don’t see any connection or support for an 800 year cycle, the report is chock full of eye-opening historical data. Here’s how the author begins to outline his thesis:
The paper makes these basic points:”
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