“Yesterday, Apple broke the $500 billion barrier.
This prompted many people, including me, to wonder whether it could get to $1 trillion.
And the answer to this question seems the same as it was when Apple was $200 a share–yes, it can.
A lot has to go right, of course. But given the relatively reasonable price of Apple’s stock versus Apple’s earnings (15X) and the growth potential for Apple’s three current businesses (Macs, iPhones, iPads) and expected future business (iTVs), it’s just not silly to think that Apple’s stock might double over the next few years.
Of course, any time you acknowledge the possibility that something startling might happen in the future, you get shelled by people who have a vested interest in that thing not happening–in this case, people who are short Apple’s stock or don’t own Apple’s stock.
These people howl in rage at your “hype” or smugly assert that you are a moron. And then they throw out a litany of reasons why what you said might happen might not happen.
And you know what?
They’re right.
Apple might not make it to $1 trillion.
Apple might crash. Apple might trade sideways forever. Apple might go into a decade-long funk and then eventually go bust.
Such is life in the technology industry.
Or any industry, for that matter.
But, still, it’s worth thinking in detail about what would have to happen for Apple to get to $1 trillion, as well as why that might not happen.
WHAT HAS TO HAPPEN FOR APPLE TO GET TO $1 TRILLION”
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