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Monthly Archives: February 2012

Market Divergence: S&P vs The Russell 2000 Small Cap Index (chart Porn)

Source

The resilience of the markets continues to be pretty impressive. Despite the uber-fast runup over the last couple of months, there’s been almost no appetite to sell… at least when you look from a headline perspective.

That being said, there are signs that underneath the surface risk-aversion is starting to steep in.

Yesterday we brought you a Chart Of The Day from Doug Kass, who pointed to the divergence between the S&P 500 (which is holding up) and the Dow Jones Transports Index, which is breaking down. But arguably transport weakness can be blamed on oil prices.

The problem is that the weakness isn’t just in transports.

Today’s chart gets at a similar idea from Waverly Advisors, but this time it focuses on the ratio between the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.

And once again, we see a breakdown, whereby the small-cap, riskier, Russell 2000 index is starting to dive vs. the broader market.

In this chart, the dotted, black line is the ratio, and the orange line is the 20-day moving average.In itself it doesn’t confirm anything, but taken as part of a broader trend whereby the riskiest of the risk assets are starting to sell off (and that includes other exotic areas, like Italian banks, and Greek equities) you’re starting to see the base erode.

 

chart

Read more: http://trade.cc/aovj#ixzz1nDegIJNY

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This Quarters Earnings Trend is Highly Similar to the Q Right Before the Recession (chart porn)

Source

Interesting chart from Albert Edwards, which continues on a recent theme…

 

chart

SocGen

 

This stall-out in earnings is something more and more folks are paying attention to.

Earlier this week, Citi’s Tobias Levkovich pubbed this chart, showing the negative trend in upward revisions, and how that seems to be at odds with the market.

 

char

Citi

 

So far investors don’t seem concerned, and instead are focused on the “improving economy” which seems defensible, but at some point the tension between the growing economy and the mediocre earnings picture will have to resolve itself.

Read more: http://trade.cc/aovb#ixzz1nDe3RaGd

 

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Today’s Money Flows

ISSUE GAINERS                 SYMBOL   EXCH   LAST PRICE   MONEY FLOW    RATIO 
                                                          (in millions) 
SPDR DJIA Tr                   DIA     ARCA      128.73      +128.0      10.11 
Apple                          AAPL    NASD      514.77       +45.6       1.13 
Hewlett-Packard                HPQ     NYSE       26.99       +17.0       1.23 
iShrs MSCI Emerg Mkts          EEM     ARCA       43.57       +16.2       2.28 
ExxonMobil                     XOM     NYSE       86.68       +12.9       1.86 
Halliburton                    HAL     NYSE       38.20       +12.2       1.77 
Chevron                        CVX     NYSE      107.55       +10.4       2.06 
Boeing                         BA      NYSE       75.62        +9.8       2.56 
Caterpillar                    CAT     NYSE      115.53        +9.7       1.60 
Oracle                         ORCL    NASD       28.34        +9.4       2.65 
MarketAxess Hldgs              MKTX    NASD       31.90        +8.3       3.05 
Amazoncom                      AMZN    NASD      177.89        +8.1       1.18 
United Technologies            UTX     NYSE       83.88        +8.0       1.97 
Express Scripts                ESRX    NASD       53.04        +7.7       1.40 
McDonald's                     MCD     NYSE      100.67        +7.6       2.36 
Entertainment Prprts Tr        EPR     NYSE       42.05        +7.6       6.47 
Schlumberger                   SLB     NYSE       79.13        +7.5       1.47 
Morgan Stanley                 MS      NYSE       18.57        +7.5       1.88 
General Motors Co              GM      NYSE       26.85        +7.5       1.78 
Johnson & Johnson              JNJ     NYSE       65.00        +7.2       1.78 

ISSUE DECLINERS               SYMBOL   EXCH   LAST PRICE   MONEY FLOW    RATIO 
                                                          (in millions) 
iShrs Russell 2000             IWM     ARCA       81.60       -53.1       0.41 
Abbott Labs                    ABT     NYSE       56.25       -28.1       0.13 
Brclys 1-3 Yr Trsry Bd         SHY     ARCA       84.41       -27.9       0.05 
Liberty Interactive A          LINTA   NASD       18.92       -25.7       0.14 
Intuit                         INTU    NASD       59.52       -21.8       0.38 
General Electric               GE      NYSE       19.05       -21.2       0.36 
Microsoft                      MSFT    NASD       31.21       -20.4       0.41 
Google                         GOOG    NASD      602.10       -19.6       0.81 
VIVUS                          VVUS    NASD       20.53       -18.1       0.78 
Intel                          INTC    NASD       26.46       -17.3       0.40 
Bank Of America                BAC     NYSE        7.96       -16.6       0.65 
Citigroup                      C       NYSE       32.36       -13.9       0.58 
Netflix                        NFLX    NASD      113.22       -13.5       0.77 
Goldman Sachs                  GS      NYSE      113.53       -12.1       0.65 
Coca-Cola                      KO      NYSE       69.07        -9.6       0.40 
Verizon Communications         VZ      NYSE       38.10        -9.5       0.28 
Pfizer                         PFE     NYSE       21.15        -9.2       0.45 
ConocoPhillips                 COP     NYSE       74.39        -9.2       0.56 
Union Pacific                  UNP     NYSE      110.62        -9.1       0.44 
Cisco Systems                  CSCO    NASD       20.00        -8.8       0.51

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52 Week Highs and Lows

NYSE

New Highs 39 

COMPANY                       SYMBOL      HIGH                VOLUME 
-------                       ------      ----                ------ 
AES                           AES         14.01              899,836 
AVG Technologies              AVG         14.49              182,098 
Amer Elec Pwr deb 2063        AEPpA       28.99                2,126 
Amer Vanguard                 AVD         17.39                8,058 
Ameriprise Finl 7.75% Nts     AMPpA       29.84                2,074 
Assur Grty Mun Hldg  Qt Inter AGOpB       24.99                  446 
Energ Gerais-Cemig C          CIG/C       19.50                2,175 
Energ Gerais-Cemig            CIG         23.08              223,408 
DWS Hi Incm Opps Fd           DHG         15.66               10,978 
Edison Intl                   EIX         41.99              166,383 
Foot Locker                   FL          28.79              145,001 
HCP 7.1%  Ser F               HCPpF       26.18                  719 
John Hancock Pfd Income       HPI         23.14                5,018 
John Hancock Pfd II           HPF         22.27                7,055 
Hecla Mng Cum Conv pfd B      HLpB        56.91                  200 
Hersha Hosp Tr 8% A           HTpA        25.65                  600 
Hornbeck Offshore             HOS         40.85               73,507 
Hospitality Prop Tr Pfd D     HPTpD       25.44                4,575 
Kodiak Oil & Gas              KOG         10.55            1,283,601 
Lions Gate Entertainment      LGF         13.05              367,068 
MaquarieInfrastr              MIC         31.32              148,378 
Maiden Hldg NA 8.25% 2041     MHNA        25.72                1,495 
Movado Group                  MOV         21.29                7,172 
Novo Nordisk                  NVO         143.68              73,465 
Oceaneering Intl              OII         56.40               47,647 
ProAssurance                  PRA         87.07               59,166 
Prologis PfR                  PLDpR       25.21                  569 
Strat Htls & Resorts C        BEEpC       29.86                  400 
Strat Htls & Resorts A        BEEpA       30.37                  200 
TJX Cos                       TJX         35.88              893,227 
Targa Resources               TRGP        45.76               37,935 
Targa Resources Partners      NGLS        41.84               33,993 
Team                          TISI        31.76                3,462 
Tel & Data 6.625% Nts         TDI         26.00                  501 
Tim Hortons                   THI         52.51              137,642 
Vornado Rlty Tr 6.75%  H      VNOpH       25.55                3,704 
White Mountains Insur         WTM         504.03               9,438 
World Fuel Svcs               INT         49.13               26,801 
Wright Express                WXS         62.46               42,756 

New Lows 1 

COMPANY                       SYMBOL      LOW                 VOLUME 
-------                       ------      ----                ------ 
Dynegy                        DYN         1.36               143,997

NASDAQ

New Highs 27 

COMPANY                       SYMBOL      HIGH                VOLUME 
-------                       ------      ----                ------ 
Aceto                         ACET        8.46                14,565 
Adams Golf                    ADGF        8.49                 5,547 
Alexion Pharm                 ALXN        87.63              339,481 
Caribou Coffee Co             CBOU        18.60              259,649 
Cempra                        CEMP        7.00                   952 
Comcast                       CMCSA       29.37            1,084,834 
Comcast A Sp                  CMCSK       28.58              330,346 
Datawatch Corp                DWCH        11.88                9,270 
Delta Natural Gas Co          DGAS        35.08                1,099 
Discovery Laboratories        DSCO        3.07               338,902 
eBay                          EBAY        35.73            2,512,545 
Hicks Acquisition Co II       HKAC        9.86                   100 
Jack In The Box               JACK        24.59              160,858 
Liberty Interactive A         LINTA       18.99            3,828,959 
Monster Beverage              MNST        56.60              276,622 
Net Servicos de Com           NETC        13.65               16,290 
Orexigen Therapeutics         OREX        3.98             5,005,697 
Provident Fincl Hldgs         PROV        10.11                1,300 
Rockville Fincl               RCKB        11.68                6,153 
SXC Health Solutions          SXCI        67.93              305,363 
SoundBite Comm                SDBT        3.33                20,121 
Southern Community Fincl      SCMF        2.27                 7,295 
Synopsys                      SNPS        30.81              337,767 
TGC Inds                      TGE         9.46                20,193 
Thomas Properties             TPGI        4.36                 3,800 
Verastem                      VSTM        11.78                1,082 
VIVUS                         VVUS        21.44           21,870,130 

New Lows 11 

COMPANY                       SYMBOL      LOW                 VOLUME 
-------                       ------      ----                ------ 
Amyris                        AMRS        5.68               103,359 
AspenBio Pharma               APPY        0.58                 5,140 
CyberDefender                 CYDE        0.10             1,198,894 
D Medical Industries          DMED        0.61                 2,038 
Echo Therapeutics             ECTE        1.68                79,390 
Energy Conversion Devices     ENER        0.13             1,808,126 
Hampton Roads Bankshares      HMPR        2.54                   597 
Intermolecular                IMI         7.48                   500 
Ramtron Intl                  RMTR        1.82                24,793 
Sigma Designs                 SIGM        5.52                27,036 
Silicon Graphics Intl         SGI         8.92               142,606

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Barton Biggs Is Snatching Up Italian Lenders

Financial companies in Italy fell so far that they were too inexpensive to pass up, according to Barton Biggs, the hedge-fund manager who said he purchased shares in the European nation.

Biggs said today that he bought a basket of Italian stocks three or four weeks ago weighted “heavily” toward banks. Intesa Sanpaolo SpA (ISP) and Unicredit SpA (UCG), the two biggest Italian banks by market value, have fallen to price-earnings ratios of 7.3 and 6, respectively, compared with the valuation of 14.3 for the MSCI World Index.

“The more we studied Italy, the more we felt that not only were Italian companies cheap, but the new government actually had a chance of making some real progress,” Biggs said today during an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “In the Loop” with Betty Liu today. “Something gets that cheap, we’re willing to take a shot at it.”

Full article

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Most Active Options Trades

-CALLS- 
OPTION    EXP.DATE       STRIKE PRC.     VOLUME        LAST S/PRC.    NET CHANGE 
LNG        3/17/12          12.0000        6798            1.9500      dn 0.1500 
BAC        5/19/12          10.0000        3599            0.1200      dn 0.0100 
IBM        3/17/12         200.0000        2013            0.9800      up 0.1000 
AAPL       2/24/12         515.0000        1963            5.4000      up 0.5000 
MSFT       1/19/13          25.0000        1601            6.7500      dn 0.2000 
HPQ        2/24/12          30.0000        1327            0.0100      dn 0.3200 
PG         4/21/12          72.5000        1132            0.0400      up 0.0000 
HPQ        2/24/12          27.0000        1072            0.2800      dn 1.8800 
AAPL       2/24/12         520.0000        1016            3.1500      up 0.1900 
PBY        4/21/12          15.0000        1000            0.2500      up 0.0500 

 -PUTS- 
OPTION    EXP.DATE       STRIKE PRC.     VOLUME        LAST S/PRC.    NET CHANGE 
SWY        4/21/12          23.0000        5000            2.3500      up 1.2000 
BAC        3/17/12           4.0000        5000            0.0100      up 0.0000 
WFC        4/21/12          28.0000        2200            0.5400      up 0.0200 
BAC        2/24/12           8.0000        1851            0.1100      dn 0.0100 
GLW        3/17/12          13.0000        1482            0.3000      up 0.1200 
HPQ        3/17/12          27.0000        1478            0.8100      up 0.4100 
WFC        4/21/12          30.0000        1101            1.1400      up 0.0800 
BAC        3/17/12           8.0000         953            0.3400      dn 0.0100 
AAPL       2/24/12         500.0000         891            1.1400      dn 0.4600 
EGLE       9/22/12           1.0000         800            0.1500      up 0.0500 

 -VOLUME- 
 CALLS      PUTS           TOTAL 
272521    244143        516664
 -CALLS- 
OPTION    EXP.DATE       STRIKE PRC.     VOLUME        LAST S/PRC.    NET CHANGE 
BAC        2/24/12          8.0000         296            0.0800      up 0.0000 
F          3/17/12         14.0000         293            0.0200      up 0.0000 
BP         3/2/12          48.0000         251            0.4500      up 0.0100 
WFR        4/21/12          5.0000         194            0.1800      dn 0.0700 
HPQ        3/17/12         25.0000         162            2.1500      dn 1.9500 
MSFT       2/24/12         30.0000         136            1.1000      dn 0.1900 
MSFT       3/2/12          30.0000         136            1.1500      up 0.0700 
DELL       3/17/12         17.0000         117            0.5000      dn 0.0400 
AAPL       2/24/12        530.0000         107            1.1800      up 0.0900 
GLD        3/2/12         173.0000         100            1.5800      up 0.0000 

 -PUTS- 
OPTION    EXP.DATE       STRIKE PRC.     VOLUME        LAST S/PRC.    NET CHANGE 
BAC        2/24/12          8.0000         270            0.1000      dn 0.0100 
HPQ        3/17/12         27.0000         167            0.8000      up 0.4100 
TLT        3/17/12        114.0000         115            1.0000      up 0.0700 
HPQ        3/2/12          27.0000         105            0.5300      up 0.0600 
GLD        2/24/12        172.0000          94            0.5900      dn 0.0900 
ESRX       3/17/12         50.0000          91            1.1800      dn 0.6900 
AAPL       2/24/12        500.0000          83            1.1400      dn 0.5000 
RIG        2/24/12         52.5000          80            1.7500      dn 1.6000 
AAPL       2/24/12        510.0000          79            3.6000      dn 0.8000 
GLD        3/17/12        168.0000          75            1.3000      up 0.1200 

 -VOLUME- 
 CALLS      PUTS           TOTAL 
12882    12871        25753

Comments »

The Myth of the Eight-Hour Sleep

via BBC News

Woman awake

We often worry about lying awake in the middle of the night – but it could be good for you. A growing body of evidence from both science and history suggests that the eight-hour sleep may be unnatural.

In the early 1990s, psychiatrist Thomas Wehr conducted an experiment in which a group of people were plunged into darkness for 14 hours every day for a month.

It took some time for their sleep to regulate but by the fourth week the subjects had settled into a very distinct sleeping pattern. They slept first for four hours, then woke for one or two hours before falling into a second four-hour sleep.

Though sleep scientists were impressed by the study, among the general public the idea that we must sleep for eight consecutive hours persists.

In 2001, historian Roger Ekirch of Virginia Tech published a seminal paper, drawn from 16 years of research, revealing a wealth of historical evidence that humans used to sleep in two distinct chunks.

His book At Day’s Close: Night in Times Past, published four years later, unearths more than 500 references to a segmented sleeping pattern – in diaries, court records, medical books and literature, from Homer’s Odyssey to an anthropological account of modern tribes in Nigeria.

A woman tending to her husband in the middle of the night by Jan Saenredam, 1595 Roger Ekirch says this 1595 engraving by Jan Saenredam is evidence of activity at night

Much like the experience of Wehr’s subjects, these references describe a first sleep which began about two hours after dusk, followed by waking period of one or two hours and then a second sleep.

“It’s not just the number of references – it is the way they refer to it, as if it was common knowledge,” Ekirch says.

During this waking period people were quite active. They often got up, went to the toilet or smoked tobacco and some even visited neighbours. Most people stayed in bed, read, wrote and often prayed. Countless prayer manuals from the late 15th Century offered special prayers for the hours in between sleeps.

And these hours weren’t entirely solitary – people often chatted to bed-fellows or had sex.

A doctor’s manual from 16th Century France even advised couples that the best time to conceive was not at the end of a long day’s labour but “after the first sleep”, when “they have more enjoyment” and “do it better”.

Ekirch found that references to the first and second sleep started to disappear during the late 17th Century. This started among the urban upper classes in northern Europe and over the course of the next 200 years filtered down to the rest of Western society.

By the 1920s the idea of a first and second sleep had receded entirely from our social consciousness.

Continue reading the main story

When segmented sleep was the norm

  • “He knew this, even in the horror with which he started from his first sleep, and threw up the window to dispel it by the presence of some object, beyond the room, which had not been, as it were, the witness of his dream.” Charles Dickens, Barnaby Rudge (1840)
  • “Don Quixote followed nature, and being satisfied with his first sleep, did not solicit more. As for Sancho, he never wanted a second, for the first lasted him from night to morning.” Miguel Cervantes, Don Quixote (1615)
  • “And at the wakening of your first sleepe You shall have a hott drinke made, And at the wakening of your next sleepe Your sorrowes will have a slake.” Early English ballad, Old Robin of Portingale
  • The Tiv tribe in Nigeria employ the terms “first sleep” and “second sleep” to refer to specific periods of the night

He attributes the initial shift to improvements in street lighting, domestic lighting and a surge in coffee houses – which were sometimes open all night. As the night became a place for legitimate activity and as that activity increased, the length of time people could dedicate to rest dwindled.

In his new book, Evening’s Empire, historian Craig Koslofsky puts forward an account of how this happened.

“Associations with night before the 17th Century were not good,” he says. The night was a place populated by people of disrepute – criminals, prostitutes and drunks.

“Even the wealthy, who could afford candlelight, had better things to spend their money on. There was no prestige or social value associated with staying up all night.”

That changed in the wake of the Reformation and the counter-Reformation. Protestants and Catholics became accustomed to holding secret services at night, during periods of persecution. If earlier the night had belonged to reprobates, now respectable people became accustomed to exploiting the hours of darkness.

This trend migrated to the social sphere too, but only for those who could afford to live by candlelight. With the advent of street lighting, however, socialising at night began to filter down through the classes.

In 1667, Paris became the first city in the world to light its streets, using wax candles in glass lamps. It was followed by Lille in the same year and Amsterdam two years later, where a much more efficient oil-powered lamp was developed.

London didn’t join their ranks until 1684 but by the end of the century, more than 50 of Europe’s major towns and cities were lit at night.

Night became fashionable and spending hours lying in bed was considered a waste of time.

Street-lighting in Leipzig in 1702A small city like Leipzig in central Germany employed 100 men to tend to 700 lamps

“People were becoming increasingly time-conscious and sensitive to efficiency, certainly before the 19th Century,” says Roger Ekirch. “But the industrial revolution intensified that attitude by leaps and bounds.”

Strong evidence of this shifting attitude is contained in a medical journal from 1829 which urged parents to force their children out of a pattern of first and second sleep.

“If no disease or accident there intervene, they will need no further repose than that obtained in their first sleep, which custom will have caused to terminate by itself just at the usual hour.

“And then, if they turn upon their ear to take a second nap, they will be taught to look upon it as an intemperance not at all redounding to their credit.”

Today, most people seem to have adapted quite well to the eight-hour sleep, but Ekirch believes many sleeping problems may have roots in the human body’s natural preference for segmented sleep as well as the ubiquity of artificial light.

This could be the root of a condition called sleep maintenance insomnia, where people wake during the night and have trouble getting back to sleep, he suggests.

The condition first appears in literature at the end of the 19th Century, at the same time as accounts of segmented sleep disappear.

“For most of evolution we slept a certain way,” says sleep psychologist Gregg Jacobs. “Waking up during the night is part of normal human physiology.”

The idea that we must sleep in a consolidated block could be damaging, he says, if it makes people who wake up at night anxious, as this anxiety can itself prohibit sleeps and is likely to seep into waking life too.

Continue reading the main story

Stages of sleep

Every 60-100 minutes we go through a cycle of four stages of sleep

  • Stage 1 is a drowsy, relaxed state between being awake and sleeping – breathing slows, muscles relax, heart rate drops
  • Stage 2 is slightly deeper sleep – you may feel awake and this means that, on many nights, you may be asleep and not know it
  • Stage 3 and Stage 4, or Deep Sleep – it is very hard to wake up from Deep Sleep because this is when there is the lowest amount of activity in your body
  • After Deep Sleep, we go back to Stage 2 for a few minutes, and then enter Dream Sleep – also called REM (rapid eye movement) sleep – which, as its name suggests, is when you dream

In a full sleep cycle, a person goes through all the stages of sleep from one to four, then back down through stages three and two, before entering dream sleep

Russell Foster, a professor of circadian [body clock] neuroscience at Oxford, shares this point of view.

“Many people wake up at night and panic,” he says. “I tell them that what they are experiencing is a throwback to the bi-modal sleep pattern.”

But the majority of doctors still fail to acknowledge that a consolidated eight-hour sleep may be unnatural.

“Over 30% of the medical problems that doctors are faced with stem directly or indirectly from sleep. But sleep has been ignored in medical training and there are very few centres where sleep is studied,” he says.

Jacobs suggests that the waking period between sleeps, when people were forced into periods of rest and relaxation, could have played an important part in the human capacity to regulate stress naturally.

In many historic accounts, Ekirch found that people used the time to meditate on their dreams.

“Today we spend less time doing those things,” says Dr Jacobs. “It’s not a coincidence that, in modern life, the number of people who report anxiety, stress, depression, alcoholism and drug abuse has gone up.”

So the next time you wake up in the middle of the night, think of your pre-industrial ancestors and relax. Lying awake could be good for you.

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Harvard’s Ken Rogoff: It’s an ‘Illusion’ to Think Europe’s Crisis is Over

Source

“Financial markets breathed a sigh of relief after the agreement by European leaders for a second bailout of debt-burdened Greece. But the continent’s crisis is far from complete, many experts say. Star Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff is one of them.

“I don’t want to be a Cassandra, but the idea that it’s over is an illusion,” he tells The New York Times.

“I am amazed by the short-term psychology in the market. I don’t think we’re anywhere near the endgame.”

The idea that Greece can be starved into prosperity would seem laughable to an objective observer. And the idea that Greece will follow through on the severe austerity it has promised, when it already faces riots in the street for previous cutbacks, also seems a bit of a stretch.

In addition, Greece’s private creditors who are expected to agree to a loss of more than 70 percent on their government bond holdings may not suffer their losses quietly.

Some of the International Monetary Fund’s debt projections for Greece appear to be taken out of thin air. “This whole debt sustainability analysis is a joke,” international economist Charles Wyplosz tells The Times.

European leaders are hoping that the Greece bailout will act as a firewall to prevent the crisis from intensifying in Portugal, Ireland, Spain, and Italy. But it looks more like this will just postpone the day of reckoning.”

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Marc Chandler: Portugal’s the Next Domino in Europe

“The agreement on a second bailout for Greece buys the euro zone time, but its debt problems haven’t been erased, says Marc Chandler, head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman.

“This probably forestalls Spain and Italy from having worse problems. They put the firewall around them,” he tells Yahoo.

“But we’re going to return to this issue whether it’s one year down the road or two. And Portugal is the next one we’re going to have to watch.”
The reaction of European bond markets to the bailout accord shows Portugal is the weak link, Chandler says. Italian and Spanish bond prices rose afterward, but Portuguese bonds plummeted.

The Italian 10-year government bond has a yield of 5.44 percent, compared to 5.11 percent for Spain and 12.43 percent for Portugal.

Portuguese interest rates are too high, despite the European Central Bank’s easing, Chandler says. “That means a weaker economy.”

Read more: 

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Pimco’s El-Erian: Investors Must Avoid Risk as Global Woes Mount

Source

“Investors are viewing the recent Greek bailout with skepticism and rightfully so, says Mohamed El-Erian, CEO of Pimco, which runs the world’s largest bond fund.

Investors would be wise to avoid risky asset classes at this time, because even though the $172 billion bailout fund for Greece will steer the country away from a messy March default, it won’t solve the country’s deep-seated economic problems.

“The market is being very rational in saying it’s a step but it’s not a big enough step yet,” El-Erian says of the Greek debt deal, CNBC reports.

“Fundamentally, Greece is going to have to find a way to restore growth and restore competitiveness. If it doesn’t do that, private capital isn’t going to come in and if private capital doesn’t come in you don’t get the oxygen that an economy needs.”

Greece is still carrying massive debt loads currently at 160 percent of gross domestic product, and austerity measures attached to bailout money including public-sector layoffs and pension overhauls will slow growth in the near future.

The U.S. isn’t immune to a European implosion either….”

Read more:  

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Doug Kass: “While I recognize the positive price momentum and the possibility of a further overshoot of my fair-value calculation, I remain cautious over the shorter term,”

Source

“Hedge fund manager Doug Kass isn’t backing off his target for the S&P 500 of 1,345, despite the recent pop up to 1,367. It closed Wednesday at about 1,358.

“While I recognize the positive price momentum and the possibility of a further overshoot of my fair-value calculation, I remain cautious over the shorter term,” he writes on TheStreet.com.

“Indeed, the Greek debt agreement this week might very well mark a classic sell-on-the-news event.”

Editor’s Note: Is This the Video That Will Get Obama Fired?

He is sticking to his price range of between 1,250 and 1,550 for the year, calling his view “optimistic” for the intermediate term. Nevertheless, the S&P 500 now appears to be “overpriced,” Kass writes.

“I expect the index to be bound within a price range between 1,250 and 1,400 over the next few months,” Kass contends.

Even the so-called “Dr. Doom,” Nouriel Roubini, has turned bull, Kass points out.

He went on to list some of the points upon which he agrees with Roubini, including a higher oil price, increasing geopolitical risk in the Middle East, slowing economies in China and India, and the problematic issues of continued central bank easing and an unrealistic U.S. budget.

Stocks could plunge from here, says Sam Stovall, chief equity strategist at S&P Capital IQ.

“The market continues to work its way higher. We are knocking on the door of the April 29 recovery high. It feels like there are an awful lot of people calling for a correction — or at least a digestion — and I’m one of them,” Stovall told CNBC.”

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State of the Union: Many Americans Feel Financially Insecure

“A new poll finds that a large percentage of Americans consider themselves financially insecure, despite the apparent recovery of the economy and a rising stock market.

A quarter of Americans said they had more credit card debt than emergency savings and 16 percent have no credit card debt but also no emergency savings, according to the poll, conducted for the financial web site Bankrate.com. 

Despite four straight months of improving sentiment, consumers’ overall financial situation is still seen as negative. Twenty-seven percent of Americans report a lower level of financial security now versus one year ago and 24 percent report a higher level.

Thirty-eight percent of Americans are less comfortable with their savings now compared with one year ago; only 14 percent said they are more comfortable.

Editor’s Note: Wall Street Whistleblower Warns of Meltdown, See His Uncensored Interview

Bankrate’s monthly Financial Security Index held at 97.3, unchanged from January. Any reading below 100 indicates a lower level of financial security compared with 12 months earlier.

“Emergency savings remains a problem area for many Americans, which leaves them only one unplanned expense away from having high-cost debt,” said Bankrate Senior Financial Analyst Greg McBride.

“Long-term unemployment, stagnant wage growth and rising household expenses are all contributing to this trend. As difficult as it may be to boost savings, having an adequate emergency savings cushion is critical to maintaining financial stability, and Americans need to find ways to sock away more cash for a rainy day.”

As to job security, consumers are slightly positive, with 20 percent feeling more secure than one year ago and 19 percent feeling less secure, up from 17 percent in January.

Consumers have reported less negativity about their savings in each of the past three months, with fewer feeling less comfortable and more feeling about the same as 12 months ago.

Additional findings of the Bankrate poll included: ”

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Internet Companies Propose a Do Not Track Button

“A coalition of Internet giants including Google Inc. has agreed to support a do-not-track button to be embedded in most Web browsers—a move that the industry had been resisting for more than a year.

The reversal is being announced as part of the White House’s call for Congress to pass a “privacy bill of rights,” that will give people greater control over the personal data collected about them.

The industry has been caught in a number of high-profile privacy slip-ups. Facebook Inc. recently agreed to settle charges by the U.S. government that some of its privacy practices had been unfair and deceptive to users. And last week, Google acknowledged it had been circumventing the privacy settings of people using Apple Inc.’s Web-browsing software on their iPhones, iPads and computers. It stopped the practice after being contacted by The Wall Street Journal.

The new do-not-track button isn’t going to stop all Web tracking. The companies have agreed to stop using the data about people’s Web browsing habits to customize ads, and have agreed not to use the data for employment, credit, health-care or insurance purposes. But the data can still be used for some purposes such as “market research” and “product development” and can still be obtained by law enforcement officers…..”

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Fed’s Fisher: Growth is Beeter Than it Looks; No Easing Expected

Source

The U.S. economy is recovering at an even faster pace than the data suggest, negating any need for further monetary easing, Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher told CNBC.

With unemployment heading lower andhousing sales posting gradual increases, Fisher said Wall Street chatter about a third round of quantitative easing [cnbc explains]— or QE3 — is probably “wishful thinking.”

“The tone is a lot better. It’s not brilliant, we don’t have enough new hiring taking place,” he said, adding that the numbers are “definitely moving in the right direction, and my personal feeling…is that things are better than the numbers might suggest, or at least moving in the right direction. There is a better tone out there, and I think we need to take note of that.”

Following the Fed’[cnbc explains] most recent Federal Open Markets Committee meeting, Fisher told reporters that QE3 is a “Wall Street fantasy” that won’t happen.

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