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Jeremy Grantham Reflects on the Performance of the S&P 500 After Past Bubbles Have Blown

“…..No Market for Young Men.” Historians would notice that all major equity bubbles (like those in the U.S. in
1929 and 1965 and in Japan in 1989) broke way below trend line values and stayed there for years. Greenspan, neurotic about slight economic declines while at the same time coasting on Volcker’s good work, introduced an era of effective overstimulation of markets that resulted in 20 years of overpriced markets and abnormally high profit margins. In this, Greenspan has been aided by Bernanke, his acolyte, who has continued his dangerous policy. The first of the two great bubbles that broke on their watch did not reach trend at all in 2002, and the second, in 2009 – known by us as the fi rst truly global bubble – took only three months to recover to trend. This pattern is unique. Now, with wounded balance sheets, perhaps the arsenal is empty and the next bust may well be like the old days. GMO has looked at the 10 biggest bubbles of the pre-2000 era and has calculated that it typically takes 14 years to recover to the old trend….”

Full article and chart porn

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Hussman: Wall Street Becoming a ‘Glorified Crack House’

“Economist and fund manager John Hussman says that Wall Street is “becoming little more than a glorified crack house.”

“Day after day, the sole focus of Wall Street is on more sugar, stronger sugar, Big Bazookas of sugar, unlimited sugar, and anything that will get somebody to deliver the sugar faster,” Hussman writes in a note to investors.

“This is like offering a lollipop to quiet down a 2-year old throwing a tantrum, and expecting that the result will be fewer tantrums.”

Full article

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Gapping Up and Down This Morning

Gapping Up

FRO +27.1%, NNN +2%, THOR +4.2%, MMM +1.3%, RIG +2%, SD +1.2%, NVS +0.8%, GSK +0.7%NATH +10.6%,

ONE +4.4%, ING +2.4%,  PPHM +18%, LEAP +1.4%, SDRL +0.3% AGO +1%, BP +0.9%,  NATH +5.9%, MDW +2.4%,

EXPE +1% , E +1.2% , CY +2.7% , MDW +2.4%, FLR +0.9%, GE +1.3%,

Gapping Down

DRI -8.1%, EXAS -4.9%, CLWR -4.4%, MT -1.3%, NS -4.5%,

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Upgrades and Downgrades This Morning

Upgrades

LRN – K12 initiated with a Outperform at Barrington Research

ALB – Albemarle initiated with a Buy at Sterne Agee

FFIV – F5 Networks target raised to $110 at Wunderlich

GE – General Electric upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Bernstein

RAM – RAM Energy Resources initiated with a Accumulate at Global Hunter Securities

ACE – ACE Limited upgraded to Buy at Ticonderoga

HOLI – HollySys initiated with a Buy at Citigroup

CRI – Carter Holdings upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman

ALLT – Allot Comms initiated with a Buy at Jefferies

DCO – Ducommun initiated with a Buy at EarlyBirdCapital

ALK – Alaska Air initiated with a Market Perform at Raymond James

VCI – Valassis initiated with a Buy at Lazard

TXN – Texas Instruments upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at JMP Securities

EBAY – eBay named a long Research Tactical Idea at Morgan Stanley

GSVC – GSV Capital initiated with a Buy at Ladenburg Thalmann

MWW – Monster Worldwide initiated with a Buy at Lazard

CP – Canadian Pacific upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Barclays

MO – Altria Group initiated at Deutsche Bank

LNKD – LinkedIn upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley

AOS – A.O. Smith initiated with a Buy at Sterne Agee

NEU – NewMarket initiated with a Neutral at Sterne Agee

SLGN – Credit Suisse initiates the Packaging and Containers Sector with an Overweight

E – ENI S.p.A. upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank

PCS – PCS – MetroPCS upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at William Blair

CNI – Canadian Pacific upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Barclays

NVLS – Novellus initiated with an Outperform at Credit Agricole

WTS – Watts Ind initiated with a Buy at Sterne Agee

MLM – Martin Marietta initiated with a Buy at Sterne Agee

TLLP – Tesoro Logistics LP upgraded to Strong Buy from Outperform at Raymond James

NPO – Enpro Industries initiated with a Buy at Sterne Agee

ASTE – Astec Industries initiated with a Buy at Sterne Agee

Downgrades

THQI – THQ Inc downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Cowen

TSO – Tesoro named a short Research Tactical Idea at Morgan Stanley

STO – Statoil ASA downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank

PDCO – Patterson Companies initiated with a Hold at Deutsche Bank

OPEN – OpenTable initiated with a Neutral at Piper Jaffray

CX – CEMEX S.A. initiated with a Neutral at Sterne Agee

ADS – Alliance Data downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray

UTIW – UTI Worldwide downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Suntrust

IR – Ingersoll-Rand downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Sterne Agee

ADTN – ADTRAN downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman

LMOS – Lumos Networks initiated with an Outperform at RBC Capital

TXI – Texas Industries initiated with an Underperform at Jefferies

HSIC – Henry Schein initiated with a Hold at Deutsche Bank

HUN – Huntsman downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies

EXP – Eagle Materials initiated with a Neutral at Sterne Agee

IP – Credit Suisse initiates International Paper with at Market Weight

USG –  USG initiated with an Underperform at Sterne Agee

CNI – Canadian Natl Rail downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Barclays

VMC – Vulcan Materials initiated with a Neutral at Sterne Agee

ITC – ITC Holdings downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse

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