Is Carl Icahn Playing Liar’s Poker with the Stock Market?

Recently, there has been quite a stir about whether Carl Icahn is actually as bearish on the stock market as he seems to be, in light of a recent letter he wrote to his investors announcing he would return all outside capital. In essence, it appears that he is playing it safe, and does not want to bear the responsibility to limited partners in the event we see another market swoon.

Insider Monkey, however, believes that Icahn is actually quite bullish on the stock market. The excess cash could easily be used by Icahn to lever up his long exposure. He has also not really hinted at selling core holdings. Food for thought, indeed.

At any rate, courtesy of The PPT, here are Icahn Capital LP’s top holdings.

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Ten billion dollar hedge fund,  Maverick Capital (based out of Dallas), founded by suspected “sham system operator” Lee Ainslie and the Wyly brothers (Evan, Sam, Charles) are having their collective heads handed to them this week, long a plethora of stocks that have fallen victim to the market guillotine.

Here are the 1 week returns for some of their biggest holdings:

FNSR -35%

URBN -16%

MRVL -10%

VIT -10%

SWKS -6%

Additionally, according to recent filings, they own more than 3% of SVN, down more than 12% today.

On the flip side, again according to recent filings, they own more than 9% of retailer PLCE, up 12% during today’s trading session so far.

Other sizable holdings include: SWI, CSII, IRWD, HMIN, LFT, PWRD, APOL and PACB

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Cotton (BAL) +46%

Coffee (JO) +22%

Cocoa (NIB) +18%

Silver (SLV) +17%

Gasoline (UGA) +16% (obviously, not a RAW commodity-fuck off)

Tin (JJT) +13%

Corn (CORN) +10%

WTI Crude (USO) +9%

#No Inflation

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We have a see-saw effect taking place here. As oil weakens, stocks strengthen, and vice-versa. As a side note, both silver and gold have reversed here, effectively signaling a “risk on trade.”

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(Ticker, % of float sold short, today’s gain)
1 LNG 31.6 +32.64
2 CSKI 16.6 +12.42
3 BONT 21.1 +8.24
4 EK 26.9 +5.82
5 AVNR 20.1 +5.41
6 CBST 17.3 +5.36
7 RNOW15.1 +4.71
8 CLWR 30.2 +3.47
9 LNET 31.9 +3.45
10 GMCR 24.5 +3.37
11 YOKU 36.39 +3.34
12 SKY 25.6 +3.29
13 BWLD 16.4 +3.23
14 NVTL 17 +2.69
15 HUSA 17.6 +2.41

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(ticker, % of float sold short, today’s loss)

1 SHZ 54 -12.1
2 CAVM 17.7 -6.96
3 UTA 17.5 -6.8
4 CSR 23.1 -6.11
5 LCC 19.3 -5.5
6 MHR 18.8 -4.53
7 BIOD 20.7 -4.46
8 NETL 23.4 -4.37
9 OSBC 15.8 -4.26
10 CCRT 21.3 -4.13
11 CISG 26.09 -3.88
12 ENTR 50.4 -3.24
13 CIEN 32.8 -3.24
14 RXII 24 -3.23
15 SATC 19.9 -3.16

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Within oil/gas, HERO (+14%) CQP (+16%), LNG (+34%) and PDC (+5.5%) are leading the charge higher, thanks to escalating violence in God’s sandbox. On the other hand, tech stocks are getting poleaxed, led by losses in FNSR (-35%), OCLR (-17%), OPXT (-16%) and JDSU (-12.8%).

With strength in crude, Airline stocks find themselves on the receiving end of egregious homo-hammers, while refiners, as well as most oil related stocks, trend higher— ever so gingerly.

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With crude futures off their recent highs early Wednesday morning, there appears to be a bit of calm in the air before the proverbial storm or, in this case, spring. With the “Arab Spring” continuing to take hold in the Middle East, protests and Shi’ite marches are expected in Saudi Arabia during the now ubiquitous “Day of Rage” on March 11 and 20. Indeed, oil traders will be watching this situation very closely, as heightened political, social, and economic unrest is likely to cause similar types of spikes that we saw with Egypt and Libya headlines.

Of course, legendary commodities investor Jim Rogers is not convinced crude is rising due to tensions in the Middle East, so much as because “…the world is running out of known reserves of oil.” Either way, you can be sure that “black gold” will continue to be all the rage in the coming days.

___________

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