Raising Cash

I sold out of my entire MAA stake for $66.74. That was the position I received for my shares of CLP when they were acquired. I feel the need to raise cash and that was a good position to trim.

I also paired back my shares of CCJ. They dropped guidance for expanding the uranium mining. I don’t think it matters – they basically said they’re working to force pricing higher by refusing to mine at these ridiculous prices – however, I think the stock keeps getting beat down. It’s just the way the uranium market has been trading.

CCJ is now 18%, down from more than 20%. Cash stands back at 40%.

So that’s it, is it?

A huge jobs disappointment is terrific news and the DOW is up 150 points for it. A big disappointment and tacit admission that they’ll never grow into their valuation by Towers Watson sends the stock higher today by 3%. Tesla is producing cars that are worth less than their same model used market. Germany is running a bigger trade surplus than ever, which in no way harms the EU nations which will probably need to be restructured again this year. Asia is fine. Yellen is super cool. The Middle East is fine. Russia is fine. Sochi is fine. Draghi is fine. We’re fine. It’s all fine.

Did I miss anything?

You know what. I like making money. I guess this is fine.

Look this is quite straightforward. This partnership is trading at a paltry 14X income and just tripled in size inside of one year.

And a cursory glance immediately revealed another 15% growth just sitting in the pipeline; unaccounted for as of yet. As in, without trying – whammy – have another 15% growth guy.

“Why yes, I believe I will, thank you.”

Just having this trade like the high growth play it is, for 20X income or more, sends it to $50. Add in the 15% growth I’m seeing (and will detail later) and you’re at $59. And that’s before the company even does anything.

This thing is easily going above $60 for a partnership unit. That’s 66% higher from where it’s at right now.

My cash positions rests above 30%.

AEC’s most recent performance was solid, and the earnings call clinched it for me.

This company is too cheap and literally everyone knows it. Above and beyond the consistent and regular return they’re pulling in, there’s chatter of “realizing the portfolio’s true value”.

With a company this size, in this environment, I can only reach the conclusion that means a corporate buyout is looming.

Their CEO and main shareholder is old. Friedman can’t be around forever. And his company’s management have proven themselves over the past five years to be highly competent. The move to separate their debt covenants from their properties in 2009 alone was probably the smartest move of any real estate company around.

So AEC is going to start getting some real attention from larger companies, who are sitting on piles of cash and looking to keep that shareholder growth coming. CLP getting gobbled up by MAA was the first, but it won’t be the last.

Cash stands between 30-40%.

Here’s the brief take away from AEC’s earnings report.

The company still beat expectations across all lines, despite taking most of 2013 and a good part of 2012 off (they were scared of being short of cash and rebalanced). The stock dilutions did mildly impair performance per share, yet the stock is right where it started and year over year FFO still grew value. Besides, the company has hardly tried to drive ahead yet.

Towards the end of 2013, the company suddenly roared to life, acquiring three new properties and creating a joint venture with AIG Global Real Estate to develop the San Francisco market. The San Francisco note should be especially depressing to the string of analysts who have continually gone on the record that there is no way AEC makes it on the West Coast.

They are going to make it, you schmucks, and your reputation goes down in tatters.

Somewhere at Citi, Michael Bilerman is cowering in fear. His ‘doomshittery’ (trademark) leveled at Associated Estates Realty has crashed against the walls and come away with nothing. His obnoxious “questions” (most dubiously labeled) now ring hollow and foolish.

Shortly, Jeffrey I. Friedman, President, CEO and Hero (in the Greek sense) will emerge from behind his walls, give these serpents battle, and put whatever survives of their forces to flight, like the cheap cowards they are; as his last act of leadership.

But Michael Bilerman can be sure he will be struck down; not of the latter sort privileged to flee. He will get no respite to run, as Friedman has marked him for his asinine chicanery during certain quarterly performance calls.

Upon which Jeffrey I. Friedman will ride off into the sunset, going down as a man of legend amongst AEC shareholders.

In the meantime, dividends are up 7% from last year and I am bidding my time.

I added more CCJ for $20.40. I had slimmed the position at $21.80 when I raised cash across the board at the top.

CCJ is always a buy around or below $20.

Other than that, I’m sitting on my hands, with >40% cash. I’m not convinced we don’t keep selling off, but am open to change. Valuations are crazy, but where else are you putting your money?

Bernanke is gone, but Yellen is hardly a hawk.

We’re at about a 5.5% selloff in the S&P. I’d feel a little more sure footed if we were at 10%. That at least would mark a real correction, and would probably require the flattening of a handful of the most serial offenders of the hope trade. The most egregious of inflated share prices, like the TW’s and TSLA’s of the world…

I’m excited by how well BAS has held up during this selloff. That stock normally passes out at a nearby sneeze. Maybe all the soft hands have finally relinquished their last pitiful handful of shares, so that the firm grip of men can rally the company?