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New Full Time Position – BXG

I bought BXG today for $9.78. This is a full sized 10% position, bringing down my cash position to ~0%.

This cannot stand, and sales of something(s) will simply have to follow.

I will pen a piece detailing the purchase later – perhaps tomorrow. There is much to say.

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All The RGR Estimates Will Be Demolished Tomorrow

RGR is reporting its first crop of earnings since the Sandyhook tragedy and the major push for gun control got underway. I’m looking around the room, and I’m seeing earnings getting lifted by 10% from the last round. And after that? Some analysts are even showing EPS dropping within the year. Look, let me ask you something, point blank.

Are you people out of your fucking minds?

You need to understand, Mr. Bloomberg analyst; I hate your guts.

It’s not that I have anything against your business don’t like you disrespect you…okay you know what, I’ve tried starting this sentence three times, so I’m just gonna call it quits here.

The problem is that you are a gigantic pussy. God it feels good to finally say that! Enough of this PC bullshit.

You are a gigantic bitch. You little New York dwellers hang out on your tiny little island with your thirty five thousand armed guards and no sense of how the rest of the country operates. You get all caught up in ten thousand fake Twitter handles that #DemandChangeNOW and miss, subsequently, what is staring you right in the face.

And why do you let this happen to yourselves? So that one day, maybe, Mike Bloomberg will say “hmm” to you while you shuffle breathlessly out of his way to the bathroom.

Now let me show you why your estimates are complete garbage

IMG_20130225_145510
This is a real gun store, unlike the imaginary ones you’ve never set foot in

Now, do you notice how I can almost count on two hands how many guns they have left in this case?

You are busy lifting earnings estimates for gun manufacturers by a paltry 10% and meanwhile, gun inventories have been sacked by >80%. In this particular store, this was one case. They had another five that looked exactly like this. I can count on one hand how many Ruger handguns were left for sale. And meanwhile, you can only bring yourself to lifting EPS estimates by 10%, while viciously penning that “Bloomberg employee loyalist” piece hyping the ‘dangers’ to gun stocks that will just absolutely materialize from legislation and judiciary action. And of course reminding everyone that these sales levels cannot continue indefinitely.

DO YOU THINK I CARE IF THEY EXTEND INDEFINITELY!?

The company just sold a years’ worth of firearms in a fucking month. And, I revel in revealing this to you, but you’ve got two years until the midterm elections, and at the moment Republicans are looking vulnerable. That’s two years during which gun enthusiasts can panic and buy as many weapons as their budgets can handle. Two years, before you have any chance of stemming the flood, too…

RGR is backlogged with demand. They have so much F-ing demand, they need to expand their borrowing capacity just to try and keep up with it. Why, just Thursday they signed an agreement with Bank of America to expand one of their lines of credit by $15 million. You can expect more of that sort of thing, I can assure you. That’s at least 30,000 more weapons being made, all on sales that are being satisfied, really, before manufacturing or wholesale.

Think about that in shame the next time you think of writing up one of these moralizing trash pieces.

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What A Lovely Monday Slaughter

I apologize for not piping in on the sell off. I was driving down from northern Michigan and only had the intense joy of watching “Revenge of Silvio Berlusconi” on Twitter, as opposed to the full blown Blue Ray.

My cash position only stands just north of 10%. Not even a few days ago it was almost 30%. Thus I have egg all over my face.

But I have hope. Hope for higher prices. This winter was so excellent, it’s difficult for me to believe I could possibly walk away down from the amount I’ve made. So I have some breathing room. Also, I have EUO as a hedge; and that is just running here.

Thus I will be watching closely what happens.

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Sold $RGR From Yesterday – +6%

I dropped my RGR purchase from yesterday, as it rallied more than 6% in under 48 hours. Still holding my core position. Cash stands back above 10%.

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Take A Chance On Love – Added To BAS, RGR and CLP

Sitting by the wayside while men of action seize the day is not an appropriate response to opportunity.

As such, I depleted my cash position to a meager 5%, adding heavily to BAS, CLP and RGR.

This is a trade on a belief that we are making a quick bottom and have higher yet to go. I’ll take expedient profits or losses on this, as I am serious about maintaining at least 20% cash (before hedges) at most times; from now until Summer, be my judge.

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Deafening Silence

Alright, so the instant I switched over from “merely rapaciously expectant” to “full blown, mind numbingly jubilant”, the market turned on a dime and started punching participants in the face. That should have been clear before I did it. It always happens like that.

So on behalf of everyone whose kids can’t attend college now, I’d like to say, “I’m sorry.”

In times like this, it can always be difficult to answer that most important of questions. No not, “am I properly managing risk.” I’m talking about the even more important inquiry…”Whose fault is this?”

Now, there are several ways you could play this. Personally, I’ve decided to blame it on people using trailing stops. Dicks…littering their homes with half eaten burgers strewn around in McDonald’s bags all over the floor…all while smoking and ashing right on top of them…just begging to burn their house down…

There, you see how I did that? Make sure you ramble a little and trial off at intervals, to really get the “I’m-slightly-unhinged-talking-almost-to-myself” effect.

At any rate, the markets are getting lit up, and all is despair. If you’ve been living the Pisani lifestyle, I’m afraid you’ll be made to eat your hat by a short seller, who will watch you doing it while flinging small handfuls of sand in your eyes. It hurts, I understand. You have my sympathy.

Thankfully, I had the foresight to sell into the strength as opposed to throwing weight on the downdraft and cutting myself down by 5%+ all in one go.

My anticipation, for the moment, is that we will finish this selloff quickly and then surge higher.

I made a (now obviously) misguided purchase of AGQ a few days ago, but other than that I’ve been very good about holding that cash and keeping my hands off it. EUO, my hedge, is running, as this selloff seems to be driven as much by dollar strength as anything else.

The REITs are holding up decently well; AEC and CLP having nothing but cash and sterling operations.

BAS is not so fortunate.

If you owned BAS and didn’t know this quarter was going to be hard: please dispatch yourself in a grueling fashion. That was the most obvious loss in the history of loss-taking. Still BAS is way up from last year and I will consider adding on dips.

CCJ got hit yesterday as well, and RGR seems to be collapsing predominantly on profit taking. Both are buys; both will see much higher prices.

Finally, silver. Silver is the butt of jokes being told on Twitter; that place where everybody sees everything coming and makes 500% annually. Well, the jokes going to be on all of you. Silver is going to explode higher when you least expect it. I remember the circus at $15 /ounce. How it was going single digits. Then it lit you up.

I remember when it went from $50 to $25, and the same people were guffawing how it was going back to $15. Then it lit you up again.

Now it’s off to below $30 (meanwhile the Fed is dropping money like it’s worthless), and the same folks are howling that it’s all done for.

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