I am back in the office, and cannot help but notice that you took quite the liberty of my free tap water policy while I was away. I shall not make that mistake twice.
Upon opening the door to the 9th floor (which croaked with the strain of old wood to my push), I spied the portal in the corner and immediately was overcome with the urge to buy lots of BAS. So that is what I did.
I added to BAS for $11.55.
Comments »I was curious what the actual gains from RGR were; it was just such a hot position. I knew it had to be at least 20%, because that’s about the difference from where the stock ended yesterday to where I bought at the $40 mark.
I actually pulled over 40% equivalent gains on the RGR position, if you were to treat it like a continuous position. Altogether, trading RGR added 7% to my account this year, with a position size that ranged from 0-15% depending on the day.
How’d that work out?
Well, mostly, I got real lucky on some purchases and sales.
I grabbed into the stock at $49 and then caught a big one time dividend announcement, selling out in the mid $50’s just before the divident record date. The stock fell into that day; and just a few weeks after that, that psychopath shot those kids.
I repurchased at $40, and then rode it up to $48. I bought back into the low $50’s, then sold most of those shares into the mid to high $50’s.
The stock dumped back into the $40’s, and from there I bought and sold most of the major moves lower, always for about 10% gains. The full list of buys and sells are detailed inside The PPT.
Cashing out yesterday, RGR was a solid set of moves this year that helped me hit new all time highs.
Comments »I changed my mind, and sold the entire RGR position for $48.63. The size of gains on this position is difficult to determine, but it’s definitely much higher than 20%. I’ve sold in and out of it numerous times in the past year, for big profits on every swing.
There’s a lot of headwind here. I’ll wait and if, God willing, it drops back to $40, maybe I’ll load up again.
(Offers a toast to RGR)
Comments »As much fun as the occasional weekend pipe dream is, jam packed with physics and wacky ideas, from time to time, Monday brings with it a serious responibility to engage in actual thinking that produces real gains.
I see the weekday pipe dreamers are out and about now, writing mock up papers for major publications detailing how the hyperloop will create displacement by causing passengers to ride an acoustic wave, knocking my own crazy nonsense off the top. I suppose I’ll leave the making of unsubstantiated and ridiculous guessing to the professionals.
Back to things that actually matter; I’m watching RGR closely and have made the probably bad choice to hold through earnings. I am betting that gun ownership in this country will continue to expand at a higher pace that old normals, even after the initial fear buying craze has subsided. It’s difficult as RGR just announced some plant trouble, and background checks are down. Do not be surprised if RGR takes a spill lower. Whether or not I re-up my stake at that point will depend.
AEC is making to recover from the earnings miss. I am betting it will make new highs within the year.
BAS remains in a correction, and if my feeling for the stock is on, I’m betting that puts it around $11. Or rather, I’d buy around $11, if it can get there.
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If you are trading BAS, I want you to memorize this passage, which I put up inside of The PPT for the privileged and well connected.
BAS is down 11% at the time of this writing on bad earnings. Bad earnings should be expected with this company, for the moment and into the forseeable future.
As it stands, I actually was pleased with BAS’ earnings, as they were about what I expected. I will break them down later this weekend, when I have time. I will point out; even though the company lost money, their cash level increased from earlier this year. That has a lot to do with why I am in this name in particular, and not one of their competitors.
If you are following along, I caution you to reflect on what kind of person you are. Are you prone to panic? Do you actually understand what’s going on here?
I am in this name because I believe they will emerge, following a great consolidation in the fracking revolution taking place in the US, victorious and on top. I anticipate that they continue to lose money from fierce competition for the time being. It is the floundering deaths of BAS’ competitors that has put pressure on their bottom line, and will continue to do so for the forseeable future.
Just before July 4, I restructured BAS down, selling shares until it was only 7% of my account. I view this price collapse as a buying opportunity. But I want it lower, closer to $10-11.
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I’ve been watching the apicultural epidemic unfold for a few years now, and with the utmost fear and concern. The honey bee is a cornerstone of humanity, and without it our life cycle is in grave peril – plagued by lower crop yields and harder access to food. Colony Collapse Disorder is to be taken very seriously.
Before now, though, I’ve been hesitant to listen to calls from environmental crowds claiming it was the pesticides/fungicides/GMO source. Mostly because the environmentalists rarely know what the hell they’re talking about, and also like to blame everything from global warming to child births to eating meat on pretty much every problem they encounter.
Also, I was aware of two other sets of studies; the first independently showing that a vast variety of chemicals (pesticides, herbicides, GMO ingestion, etc) on their own were not causing the problem. And the second, a study that showed high correlation between Colony Collapse Disorder and two seemingly separate variables – crop chemicals and a parasite, whose name at the time I didn’t bother learning.
However, the most recent study has a solid methodology and is pretty damning, if it can be supported independently.
Read here:
The most common pesticides were the fungicide chlorothalonil, which is used on apple and other crops, and the insecticide fluvalinate, which is used by beekeepers to control Varroa mites, a honey bee pest that a government backed study released earlier this year fingered as the leading cause of honey bee decline.
“Varroa mites are beekeepers number one problem and so the treating with miticides … is a little bit like chemotherapy; it is bad for the bees, we know it is bad for the bees, but we know that not treating is much worse for the bees,” vanEngelsdorp said.
The researchers only found neonicotinoids, which other studies have shown to be toxic to pollinators, in honey bees that were pollinating apples, suggesting the insecticide is just one part of a complex problem.
This chemical-laden pollen was fed to healthy bees, which were then tested for their ability to resist infection with Nosema ceranae, a parasite of adult honey bees that has been linked to the overall problem of honey bee decline.
The biggest surprise, according to the researchers, is that bees fed pollen containing the fungicide chlorothonatil (sic) were nearly three times more likely to be infected by Nosema than bees that were not exposed to these chemicals.
And there the story does seem to tie together nicely. The methodology involved controlled experimentation, rather than the wild accusations preferred by our modern Earth Society types, and it incorporates all the broad factors of the former studies.
So what is chlorothalonil?
Specifically, chlorothalonil is an engineered chemical acquired by Sygenta (SYT) in 1998 and primarily employed to stave off fungus. And it just got implicated in one of the most serious calamities to hit humanity since…I don’t know, the onset of the last ice age? The death of the honey bee could have profound impacts on global populations. Here in America, prices go up, and sure that’s bad. But if it’s bad enough, over in Egypt or Syria, food stops coming altogether.
There’s one other red flag I found – REVUS
REVUS was first launched in 2006 (2007 according to Syngenta’s (SYT) SEC filing). Over the next several years, you can find documents with internet searches recording it being slowly green lighted across America, at roughly the same time as CCD began to become an issue. REVUS is also a fungicide, according to Syngenta’s (SYT) most recent SEC Form 20-F:
Mandipropamid (REVUS®), launched in 2007 and currently registered in 62 countries, is used on fruit and vegetables to combat late blight and downy mildew. Mandipropamid is marketed in all regions.
I’m watching this all unfold very carefully. For the moment, I am simply an observer. However, I am constantly assessing whether or not a short opportunity exists in SYT over this.
New Zealand also had a problem with CCD. However, over the last several years their domestic bee population has actually increased, thanks to hard work and careful diligence and treading on the part of farmers, working in concert with government and citizens. You can find reports on this here.
This is not the type of issue that can be clear cut with “GET RID OF THE CHEMICALS”. This debate is replete with hard choices that all lead down difficult roads. Thus, I am not confident that Syngenta (SYT) will be the recipient of any consequences for this (or anyone else for that matter). The need for high crop yield necessitates the presence of a party like Syngenta or Monsanto. We all may just eat the cost of cleaning up the mess.
But, the situation calls for close monitoring none the less. And if we ultimately decide to take the heavy handed approach, Syngenta (SYT) is likely where the hammer will fall.
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