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$HCLP

130% Gain In HCLP In 10 Months (Before Dividends Or Trading)

The purpose of this post is pure gloating, so if you’re not into that kind of thing, you can step out the door.

I purchased HCLP in the middle of last August for $24.00 a unit. In 10 months, they’ve appreciated 130%, which doesn’t bother factoring in the almost 9% on my original $24.00 price tag they’re paying me this year on the side, in distributions (yields only 4% to you if you buy in now).

There were some opportunistic trades in there for profit also, but who’s counting…?

Now you just remember who the victor is in this game of “Cain Versus The Analysts” going forward.

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I’m Up Almost 1% Today

HCLP just cracked a move from its “pullback” to $48. Currently trading for $54 again.

Sorry, I’m out in client meetings this afternoon.

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BAS Down After Secondary Offering

Basic Energy Services is down 5% on me after they announced a secondary offering good for about a 5% dilution.

This pain is never welcome, but I’m not necessarily concerned. I have a long standing policy of not getting puffy over equity raises so long as they are put to good use. What I want to see is what BAS intends to do with the money.

So long as they aren’t hoarding cash or using it to pay existing expenses, there’s no problem here. I want payrolls to grow, lines of business to expand, revenues to increase (and it better be above current per share growth rates)…I want to make money.

If that means selling a little stock, what’s the issue?

I’m not sure I’m a buyer of this drop, because I own a lot. But I’ll be taking a look at the numbers later.

(Interestingly, HCLP is also getting hooked today, probably because automated correlation programs lack subtlety)

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Bought Half Sized Position In ETP For $56.64

I found the terminal position I want, but it has nothing to do with coal. I bought a half sized position in ETP for $56.64.

Energy Transfer Partners, LP is a storage and distribution partnership that specializes in a diverse number of business lines, including (1) midstream, interstate and intrastate transportation and storage natural gas operations, (2) gathering, compression, treating, conditioning and processing of natural gas, and (3) purchasing and marketing natural gas and NGLs.

They’ve been making a flurry of acquisitions, their cash flows seem proper, and they seem cheap relative to peers. They also are paying me 6% in annual distributions to hang out. I like their market position and think the next 10 years will be big for them (same as BAS, same as HCLP).

This is right where I want to be. I’ll refocus energy on coal later – for the moment, I have half assembled positions in NRP and BTU.

Of course, at this stage in the game, it’s going to be hard to hit the kind of returns I got for BAS and HCLP. The market was just so negative about those positions and now since September of last year, it’s getting so expensive. But this is still a good buy here.

I admit it is getting a little harder to find positions to buy. Price to book of companies certainly looks heated, although that’s not the only measure. There are certainly some positions out there priced to fail, like EPD. And coal companies in general look terrible. It wasn’t just tech that got bid up last year.

But there are still lots of positions that are growing revenues and earnings just fast enough to keep that risk threshold around a 10 year horizon. It’s not the 5 year break even points you could have picked up in ’08, but what do you want?

Some of these positions are going to be stealth winner. I think coal names are artificially expensive, but really quite cheap. You have to consider how much of the “expensiveness” is being driven by low coal prices forcing write downs on entire proven reserves. So is the company selling the whole operation for that price level? That’s the big question isn’t it. If you get a coal price recovery, suddenly these operations are all trading <1X book with robust earnings growth.

95% invested.

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Barreling Ahead Another 1.6%

The indices are lower and I don’t care, because for me the bull market is back.

HCLP is up 3.5%. BAS is up 2.3%. UEC is up about 8% after being up 21% yesterday. NRP is up 1%. CCJ is up 1%. Silver is up 1%. Nothing I own is even down today.

The rotation is at hand, into my hand as luck would have it.

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Pushing Up 1% Into The Last Hour

So far I’m seeing gains of just under 1% today, clearly led by HCLP. UEC is staging a recovery (I hope), but CCJ has turned lower.

The multifamily REITs AEC and MAA are digesting some of the latest move higher.

But I’m happy enough with this – we had a good day yesterday and every minute we aren’t collapsing is another minute the bears can tremor, thinking about the last five years and what their short selling addiction has gotten them thus far.

I’m not ruling out more volatility just yet – the NASDAQ has dispensed some horrendous fortunes – but I am constructively optimistic about my own.

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