I bought back shares of HCLP and BAS that I unloaded on the run up, as they are both off 10-15% from the highs and we are just a short span away from a bounce.
HCLP reports earnings soon, and I expect nothing less than magnanimous triumph.
Comments »Well, the hubris post did it, and pointing out that when I crossed 20% YTD gains timed the top with almost cruel exactness. Just as we all knew it would.
BAS is taking the session the hardest for me, down almost 7%. They started a correction after earnings, and it looks to be picking up speed. My guess is a retest of the 200 day, putting them just over $20 a share, at which time I will be a buyer.
MAA is second worst, down over 5% on a disappointing…Core FFO number? FFO is very important in the real estate market, because it prices out depreciation of construction (which so long as your structure is sound is irrelevant). But they also just doubled their operation by acquiring my old position CLP, and seem to be continuing the spirit of development and expansion. They have sound debt levels making the process easier, with plenty of room to add leverage. And a strong wind at their backs in the form of a rising rent environment. I’m holding here because a 4% dividend and steady growth make MAA a sound enough investment once this passes.
Following next is a roughly four way tie between BTU, NRP, HCLP, and ETP. There seems to be a theme today of energy names being punished a little worse than the indices. Then again, people have hated coal for years and half the energy sector has huge gains unrealized with ample volume to round about escape losses elsewhere, so maybe this makes perfect sense.
CCJ had a good earnings report, continuing to kick the uranium market doldrums by personally doing just fine. Their long term contracts persist in rewarding them with a price well above the dismal spot market, and sales volumes have increased. So the market has rewarded them by only selling off 1.5%.
(Actually, I need to be honest. I am concerned that CCJ has managed to perform this well in this environment. Particularly because despite the better sales and earnings, they continued to lose cash – the only thing that really matters – and in light of the recent revelations of overseas corporations acting to enable financial games with their taxes. I’m going to be sniffing around very closely here, because I will not become prey to some corporate Enron nonsense)
AEC and silver are my “best” positions, each down “only” less than 1%.
Okay, so the market is getting clubbed. What do we do about it?
Well, if you’re in my position – and if you’ve been following me, that is quite possible – up still over 15% for the year, then the answer is pretty clear. You do nothing.
I can afford to do nothing here, to see if this hard drop doesn’t stabilize quickly and lead us higher through August. We should hit a bottom pretty quick. I don’t yet see a good catalyst for a major drop, outside of the regular bank failings and global “World War” heckling that usually bogs us down. For the moment, that’s no excuse to panic.
China, Europe, and most the rest of the world haven’t exactly been doing awesome before now. This isn’t news.
So there’s no rush here. 13% YTD gains is my floor. When I hit that point, I go to cash fast, because my year will be at least +13%. 13% because I was stuck between 10% and 15%, so let’s take the black prime number in the middle (scientific, right?).
Comments »In what will unquestionably become the “Hubris Top Tick” post, I will go on the record and admit that yesterday, my account crossed 20% gains this year for the first time.
CCJ sealed the deal for me. After taking a nasty selloff, it exploded over the last week and a half, up 14%, which accounted for half the push from my prior 15%. The other half got picked up here and there.
I’m unsure how long I’ll be hanging out here. HCLP, which is without a doubt the hero of 2014, is reporting earnings first thing in August. The partnership has come a hell of a long way. Will this lead to a pullback? It wouldn’t surprise me, although I’ve decided to hold fast and keep the faith.
The coal trade isn’t working yet; but then again I did decide to forgo a quick entry, opting for steady accumulation. So a slow start is actually better for me.
Comments »The typical Monday open has led way to the equally typical Monday reversal back to even. Short sellers look stupid, and behind their jaunting comments, are terrified.
Meanwhile, I’m up another 1.5% today, led by HCLP pressing towards $70 a share, and CCJ making a comeback.
My biggest loser today is BTU, which is almost down to $15. I’ll consider adding near $14, if it gets there.
Global events and political developments tend to be the dumbest reasons on Earth to trade around. It’s fun to speculate what idiot decided to ice a jetliner without any due diligence. Or how long before Gaza taps out. Or what would happen if political winds changed in this country and banned all forms of energy or interstate travel.
It’s fun, but it isn’t profitable.
So don’t waste your time on this nonsense, unless you’re bored at work, looking for an excuse to neglect your clients.
Comments »I haven’t checked in much recently, and for good reason. You, dear reader, probably check out of life enough without having an excuse to. There’s a big bright world outside, and you are missing it, neglecting your children in favor of reading a blog on the internet, run by a man you have never met.
Today, the weather is crappy (in my neck of the woods, anyway), so I will take a minute to scrawl out some thoughts. But really, go outside already.
When you are lying on your death bed, you are not going to regret never getting to read another stock picking article. If you are a normal man, you will probably regret not staring at clouds more often. Or gazing at the stars. Or feeling the warm breeze on your skin, standing by the water.
You may check in once per day to read my work. You have my permission. But other than that, get your ass outside. You’re not getting any younger, buddy.
Writing has been scant here because I have been following my own advise. Despite this neglect, my person is doing just fine. Year to date, my gains are just now over 16%. CCJ has pushed back above $20, and if it can recover to $23, I’ll be sitting inside 20% shortly.
Almost all my positions are higher. HCLP and BAS seem to be breathing, but that’s alright. Everything is holding up well.
Comments »Over the past week or so, I raised cash to 25%. This was good fortune, as HCLP, my mantelpiece position, has dropped 8% since I let up.
Today, I repurchased half of those shares, which I sold at $64.19 each, for $59.39.
It seems like good enough of a bet to me. HCLP is growing so fast… it’s trading at just over 17x Q3 2014 earnings estimates. I have no good way to guess what HCLP’s earning’s potential is over time; but 17x doesn’t seem unreasonable, particularly with a steady announcement of 5 year supply agreements being announced and 200% revenue growth last year. When you’ve managed to get in on the ground floor of such a high flying position, it just makes sense to hold long a core stake, and ride the waves.
This 8% drop is just another opportunity to make extra money, until such time as that logic is challenged. For the moment, HCLP just managed to touch its 20 day moving average for the first time since early June.
Next earnings announcement is in August. So tell me, who wants to stand in the way of this thing?
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