Dispense with the cheap attempts to divine the next president from price action. It’s a fool’s errand. There are tens of thousands of alleged professions running around, trying to hit this problem with the law of large numbers. They cannot agree on anything. When they do, it’s usually met with everyone’s polls getting blown out of the water.

The volatility in the polls is telling you something. It’s telling you the polls have been and will continue to be worthless. It’s been screaming that since March. It was screaming that in September. It’s screaming that now.

So now we’re resorting to zealots gambling on Intrade, chia pet head sales numbers, and baseball team superstition to try and “gain an edge.”

Meanwhile, our markets are ramping higher. Treasury yields are expanding, commodities are on the move, and everyone is being blessed with higher prices. Why does this have to do with the presidential election at all?

It’s almost the holidays, and black Friday will be here in just a few short weeks. Buying or selling because of one man getting elected is crazy, unless you have a damn good reason. Fleeing coal in an Obama presidency sort of makes sense, provided you think the EPA won’t eventually start getting mail bombs from the disenfranchised folks of Virginia. But this is only a very slim example of positioning with politics that may not be completely off track.

Generally speaking, the market is a freight train, and one jackoff does not move it. We have the good gentlemen and ladies of Congress, who are adamant about keeping their names in the history books good graces and their pensions fat, by accomplishing nothing.

And accomplish nothing they shall.

The presidential election is an excuse for behavior, not a driver. If we are going higher, it’s because Santa Clause is coming.

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As the market is off a whopping fraction of a percent, commentators are literally soiling themselves on live television, trying to time the next selloff.

Oil reversed yesterday – to a flurry of publications informing us that the move higher is over with.

Bond analysts are flipping out about Europe.

Romney made some comment most everyone I hang out with agrees with – half of all American’s are lazy tits with zero self-worth – and now a few ancient and withered CNN “journalists” are creaming their pants insisting Obama now somehow has this election in the bag.

And China is thinking of crushing Japan because of some island that might have oil rights.

Folks, this is obviously a drama day. I’m checking my brain out.

Do you understand insignificant this selloff is?

Do you get how high all commodities ramped over the last three weeks as the QE announcement was obviously leaked?

Do you see that European bond yields are still lower than they’ve been all year?

Do you understand that CNN journalists all dorm together in a crawl space and haven’t made a correct prediction in the last 15 years? That the polls coming out have fluctuated consistently by 3% or more, leaving Obama and Romney (the guy supposedly nobody likes) in a virtual tie?

Do you get that Japan has nukes too?

Seriously, this is ridiculous. I’m closing the 9th floor for business early today. My things are packed. I’m closing the door behind me – the lights are flipped off as my hand slides quickly out before the latch locks tight.

Today is just too stupid to get involved with. I’ll see you tomorrow.

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As I’m sitting here, watching my television screen, I find myself overcome with a most serious dilemma – why the hell do I know the name of a Senate candidate from Missouri?

The answer, which comes to me before I can even articulate the question is, “because, this somehow helps Democrats.”

That’s where we’ve come as a country. First, they moved in to pin it on the GOP. Then, the GOP immediately repudiated the comments. Romney led the charge. So now they can’t make it an issue about Romney. So it’s an issue about the people who might be on Romney’s “side”.

“Well! Mister Romney…maybe your problem is the things other people say who aren’t you. You know, those we can’t quite openly identify since you and most of your supporters and GOP party leaders are bucking Akin – but! we know they’re out there…”

Thanks assholes. Hey, you know what? Maybe Rangel is a Democrat so that makes Obama a thieving, corrupt bastard. And maybe Blagojevich makes the whole left guilty of trying to sell a Senate seat.

Two words: Joe Biden.

If that doesn’t sound fair, it’s because it isn’t. I mean, at least Obama had dealings with these three – who the fuck is Akin?

Why the fuck are we talking about this guy? And more importantly, how low has this whole process sunk that suddenly Romney’s record is apparently hinged on the words of an individual he has no control over, and who he has openly denounced? I just got to read a bullshit piece by some idiot in the local Freep newspaper – “An American Woman” – lecturing a Romney candidacy for their horrible ignorance towards women…uhm, manifesting in forms they have no power or responsibility for.

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Alright, enough politics for today. As aften as I broach the subject, feel comforted in knowing that I hate it as much as you.

In the markets, I’m struck by the move in the $EURUSD. We are now at $1.25+. This move should give further steam to the relief rally underway. I’m guessing the $EURUSD will top out somewhere around $1.28 (purely a guess), giving us another month of upside or so. If that connects with the holiday, we could run into the new year again. But I’m playing defensive.

I’m ambivolent towards the effect something like an election can have on the stock market. Though people wish to believe otherwise, this election has absolutely nothing major in play in terms of business conditions.

If Obama wins, we continue onward. If Romney wins, he doesn’t have the foundation to move forward with any major changes. You get some relief as Romney starts letting the hatchet fly in these freelance agencies (thank God) but not much else.

However, ultimately the $EURUSD move is going to fail. It’s just a matter of when. There’s speculation of a Greek exit from the EU again – but we’ve been here before. Cans will be kicked to stave off a 2012 collapse. The question is, will the issue resurfacing cause the euro to implode again BEFORE next year?

The $EURUSD is still going to parity.

The necessary allocations are all long, but with a large defensive cash position to take advantage of dollar strength when it resumes. Do not fear things named as gayly as “Fiscal Cliff”‘s. While I am looking for the next downstroke to come around the same time, this is Europe’s part to play. The US gets to destroy the world later.

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I have thought about this long and hard, and decided to ultimately cast lot with the Democrats this year. Cain Hammond Thaler will be voting for Obama.

I do not do this because I feel in any way that Obama will be good for the country, the planet, or yourselves. Actually, quite to the contrary:

I’m voting for Obama because I hate you.

Sitting here in my 9th floor office, I’ve watched and seethed for the last four years. And I confess myself rather a bitter man. More so because I called Obama’s fall from favor between some friends not the day after he won.

I said, “This guy’s not moderate at all. He’s gonna overreach and Republicans will sweep the mid-terms.” That’s as about verbatim as a non-recorded conversation can go.

You see folks – you bastards asked for this.

If I liked you; if I wanted to help; I would vote to get this clown out of office, because he’s hamstringing our economy by putting his hair-brained college buddies in charge of remaking the world in the image of a Harvard lounge room and neo-militant environmentalists in charge of policing the source of our heat and power.

But you see, looking out for someone is what you do when you care about them.

I saw this child dancing on a brick wall, and I said “hey, get down from there.”

And the child taunted back, “make me.”

So I warned, “you’re going to fall and hurt yourself.”

To which it retorted, “you are mean and a big bully. And you deserve to be hated by everyone.”

Fine, you know what you little degenerate? You’re not my kid, and your mother’s a whore. Dance 10 feet off the ground. Here are some fucking scissors to hold onto while you do it.

And you know what else? It’s too late.

I’ve seen the bond game the US is playing, and it’s all over. We’re toast. Shy of a technological revolution the likes to rival the industrial revolution, we’re not growing out of this issue. We’re defaulting. And then, all these precious little programs you lot think are as easy to manage as “voting for them” will go bye bye.

Away for fifty years – your Social Security savings are rather precariously being handled by con artists. You can pretend like the problems are small and can be papered over if you like.

But when the bond market finally rejects our auctions (look at the last two we held) and our favored “debt hiddy-holes” of China and Europe finally start trying to renationalize the paper…well folks, you’re going to see quite the spectacle here in the old US of A.

And when that sixty year old habitual smoker of a trailer trash wife has to start picking 2 out of 3 to spend her $200 SS checks on – milk, eggs, and smokes – (or worse, they just start defaulting on the program)…well I’ll tell you one thing I know.

I don’t want a Republican in office.

You see, I’d like to believe you’re smart enough to recognize that the last forty years of raw malinvestment and overpromising is the cause of this (it is dipshits, no one event whether war or housing busts caused this).

I’d like to believe that. But I know better.

Once things get hard, the 20-30% of you – I’m talking about those in Middle School who couldn’t point to Egypt on a map and, when looking for the state of New York on a globe, started by turning to the side with Western Russia – the same who are now preaching hope and love of mankind and being kind to the poor…you’ll be the first ones to turn on people.

And whichever political party is unfortunate enough to be in the command chair when that happens is going to get lambasted. We’re talking Roosevelt-sucker-punches-Hoover part II, and 20 years of political obscurity for the poor sons of bitches who get stuck with the bill.

Yeah, no thanks.

I’m guessing the fireworks get started in 2015-2016. I don’t want to have my ideology’s fingerprints anywhere on government when that happens. Because I love capitalism and don’t want an angry, flesh craving mob to take her down.

My only concern is that somehow Obama is able to take the Supreme Court in a second term. But I have to trust that the old men who currently keep us safe from manic liberals have the fortitude to keep on living. So that’s a risk I’m willing to take.

So I will be voting for Obama this November. Because you and he deserve one another. And because I’m not thinking about the next four years. I’m thinking about the next 40.

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I offer hearty congratulations to Rahm Emanuel and friends, in their successful attempts to slowly transform Chick-fil-A into a multi-billion dollar business.

Wait, they weren’t trying to bolster Chick-fil-A’s profits? That’s news to my ears. Because if they were hoping this would turn into a public repudiation of Christianity’s staunch support for keeping marriage between a man and a woman, they obviously haven’t been living on the same planet as I have (beam me up, Chicago).

A one hundred million dollar ad campaign and twenty years of community service and hard won business wouldn’t measure up to the raw influx of success this company is about to experience, thanks all to the city of Chicago being devoid of sentient life – only this city would be arrogant enough to try and lead an effort to combat discrimination by actively discriminating against the largest segment of the American population.

Because if there’s one thing in this day and age that people hate worse than hypocrisy, it’s corruption. Having officials crudely swinging non-existent mandates to the aim of crushing private businesses and the religious tenants practiced by between 8 and 9 out of every 10 Americans is one sure way to get two thirds of this country up and in arms. Trying to deny someone the right to conduct business because of their beliefs absolutely reeks of corruption.

The truth is, I don’t care about the issue of gay marriage at all. I can see both sides of the coin; the side that points out gays wanting to marry is like white people wanting to join the NAACP; and the other side of the coin, where marriage has real monetary consequences and lots of religious nutjobs routinely carry on in ways that push the envelope of hate rallies.

But if I am ambivalent about gay marriage, I’m rather decisive in my hatred of Chicago politicians. That city is a plague on the Midwest. And Rahm Emanuel is a grade A dick – with his strong arming, rotting-fish-gift-wrapping ways.

Which is why I’m going to relish in watching them create a financial incentive for every American business not on one of America’s unbearable, self-aggrandizing coast lines to become hard line Christians willing to defend marriage to the last.

This will be very amusing.

Step one: unjustly single out a business for holding the same beliefs as a majority of the country. Wield unconstitutional powers to try and harm them.

Step two: watch in fascination as 80 million people begin to send money to opposition movements and 200 million people march directly to this organization, voting with their wallets and mouths.

Step three: be struck in awe as you realize you unintentionally built up your opponent into the greatest food chain success story of the last 20 years by trying to act like a shady little prick.

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Permit me to take a moment from my normal duties on this day most halcyon to relish in the night’s gifts bestowed.

How much money did the likes of the SEIU throw at recalling Walker? Hah! They squandered their war chest, bussing in people (with nothing better to do) from across all corners of the country, and what did they get?

Scott Walker won the recall election against the same opponent by a wider margin than in the normal election a year and a half ago.

And more, union members are jumping ship so quickly, you’d think it was larruping against literal rocks. Only the most vocal, the most dedicated, and the most obsessed of the union thrall are holding loyal. This is a most welcome development. Soon, the days of union bosses and the repugnant dirty money they spread will be vastly diminished.

Their house is in disarray. It will only accelerate from here.

Now, the trick is to hold the course and not overcompensate. If the states continue to treat workers fairly, as professionals, we need never return to these dark times of political moral hazard and loose, dirty back room dealings at the expense of everyone else.

If however we let worker conditions deteriorate, we will quickly see a resurgence of these parasites.

It’s a tall order, particularly as the state of State finances is horrendous (for many of the same reasons it’s so important to reign in the public unions in the first place). It will be very difficult for states to manage their situations without some amount of worker backlash. I can only hope they pull it off; I cannot stand the false virtue of unions and their ignoble methods of pitting some workers against their fellows in order to retain power and wealth.

But for now at least, things look bright.

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