I’m standing hunched over the desk in my 9th floor office, chewing lightly on a light Mediterranean salad, which is giving off slight aromatic aromas mingled with the sharp hint of vinegar, and a side of tender chicken while I work. In between taking bites, I can’t help but feel my lips purse into smirks.
Looking over my shoulder; WTI is now toppling into the $82-83 range. Yet, SCO is also falling, as is ERY, and reliably, TVIX is inside of $10 again (that product is useless).
I can’t say I blame anyone because the horizon is murky. So all products are being sold off together. Only cash is king today.
My expectation is that by the POMO meeting towards the end of June, policy makers will have already yielded some form of accommodative support to markets. However, it could come later. This is a big gamble, so having plenty of cash and feeling secure and confident about one’s book is critically important.
I was somewhat suspect of holding products like ETFs into today, because I figured they could sell off, much like last Friday. Being wary of the potential for intervention over the weekend, I sold SCO yesterday; missing out on big gains this morning.
However, that is the price of safety sometimes.
I’ve decided to hold ERY through the weekend – I’m going to trust that, if something big is announced this weekend, I’ll be able to get out with the herd on Monday. It’s a risk, but worst case, ERY opens down ~10% and it does 2-3% of damage to my portfolio.
At that point, I would theoretically deploy some of my – by then larger – cash position.
I yearn to buy more silver; but I cannot do so here. Lower; I need lower prices.
I’ll be preoccupied with some work for the remainder of the day. It’s my intention to stop back periodically and to finalize my strategy before the closing bell. If I do not get the chance, let me take this moment to wish you a fine weekend.
One Response to Nobody Wants To Be Positioned Anywhere Into This Weekend
Congrats on the recent winship.
The phrase “the open is for amateurs and the close is for pros” does not hold true in front of a weekend such as this. Even simple hedges can backfire in these situations. It’s all guess work.
I tend to just let it ride in these situations. Chances are, regardless of what happens, the closing price today will be revisited in the near future. And if this weekend is THE weekend, well then like you said, it’s possibly a few percentage points off the top if you’re leaning the wrong way.