This week was disappointing, after the smorgasbord of gains I was served the week prior. I traded flat, despite many opportunities to see follow through.
TVIX was the most disappointing of all. It is only a very small position, but it’s a very small position that I want to see 300% gains on. It keeps extending, acting as if it wants to run, only to see itself get shut down.
Perhaps people are afraid of “the TVIX” after the severe pain it delivered to its holders earlier this year? Perhaps they do not trust “the TVIX” to not be, well, TVIX?
What I do know is that TVIX is trading BELOW its NAV by almost 20%. I understand it’s a crazy asset; one I would NEVER buy with any serious amount of money. But come on, let’s have a break.
For two days in a row, TVIX was up by 10%, only to give back everything in the final hour. It was bullshit; don’t throw empty beer cans at my horse – I don’t care how dilapidated it is.
At any rate, fears of a weekend surprise are unwarranted. Are the EU leaders even meeting or conversing?
AND WHERE pray tell, did this talk of Germany being “on the seat of their pants, facing pressure at home” come from? Up until now, all the responses I’ve seen have suggested Merkel enjoys broad support at Germany for checking the rest of the countries. Then, two days ago, suddenly I’m hearing how Germany is feeling the heat, “definitely going to give in any day now…”
Like they gave in last year? Yeah, they sure have shown themselves to care about pressure. The sitting German government has only kept at bay the rest of an entire continent, vetoing the efforts of all foreign governments that want change. I’m sure the sidelined opposition in Germany is going to succeed where dozens of countries have failed.
There is only opposition to austerity in Germany if you focus in really closely on the protestors. Sure Germany hates austerity, if you ignore all the Germans who don’t hate austerity…
The most recent protest of austerity in Germany drew a crowd of 20,000. That’s about a quarter of .1% of the Germany population that have demonstrated they are against austerity. That’s also assuming all 20,000 were even German; it’s not exactly hard to hop on a train in Europe. Looking at Merkel’s approval ratings, there are still way more Germans who think austerity is just fine.
If you believe that kind of opposition is going to bring about change in Germany, you also probably believe OWS is going to bring about change here at home. In which case, we have nothing further to discuss.
In order to change things, you’d need to see a real serious change in the German economy. Even a small contraction would probably not do it – life would continue to be just dandy for a significant majority, who would keep things on the tracks. No, you would need a month or two of Spain-like contraction to see political change from Deutschland.
By the time that happens, markets will already be in full on retreat.
The odds of Germany relenting are nil. Not now. Not for months. Maybe not ever. Germans are content to sit and watch the others struggle, because they’re convinced nothing can stop the other countries from struggling. It will take a grave turn of events at home for Germany to change that position.
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Lol, dropping TVIX hard into the bell. You fucking cowards.
I don’t believe Germany will capitulate to these cheese eating sun lovers. They are like teenagers – you bail them out once and you will continue to bail them out – ad infinitum.